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I think the PEW poll, this time around at least, is somewhat more indicitive of where things are right now, than the last poll was. I do think the sample is important to a degree. Oversampling to far to one party or demographic certainly skews results. I think the previous Pew poll was highly innaccurate because of it's heavily skewed sample. I think this poll, while not as extreme, might be a little too heavy the other way around. What can't be predicted, is what the exit sample of actual voters will look like. We can guesstimate by way of past elections, and maybe add in a few points for enthusiasm, but we won't really know who's going to show up until November 6th. I think the race is close, and will remain so (barring any surprises) until election day. Four weeks in politics is a long time.
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Real Clear Politics has Obama with 251 electoral votes to Romney's 181....
0-0 is more accurate
__________________ “ I think good coaches will coach with the personnel they have, and if you only have one (good) linebacker, you’re not going to play a 3–4. ”
—Hank Bullough, who installed one of the first 3–4 defenses with the New England Patriots.
give up the intentional misspelling.......it necessitates the perception that you are completely bereft of intelligent thought
Quote:
Originally Posted by Patters
The Pew poll, which conservatives generally consider to be fairly liberal puts Rmoney ahead by 4 among likely voters. Supposedly the Daily Kos poll, and Daily Kos is a very liberal site, will show Rmoney leading as well. This is why I have not once predicted a victor in the race. The fact is anything can happen. Rmoney has momentum, and the big guns (like the NRA) are starting to spend their big dollars.
In the meantime, how well can we expect Obama to do in the next debates? It's not his forte, and the Rmoney team wisely has supposedly been preparing since July. I think Biden will do okay against Ryan, simply because Biden has a nice way about him, but I can't see Obama beating Rmoney in debate -- maybe holding him to a draw. At any rate, the race is getting more interesting. Until now, the predictions for the most part were pretty much that Obama would be a shoo in (with of course some experts saying otherwise), but now it's horse race. How will the Obama team stem the Rmoney team momentum?
At this time of year, the election is a sport, not in the hands of Rmoney or Obama, but in the hands of their respective teams. It will be curious to see what kinds of tricks each team has up its sleeve, if any.
(In the Pew poll,) Romney has drawn even with Obama in the presidential race among registered voters (46% to 46%) after trailing by nine points (42% to 51%) in September. Among likely voters, Romney holds a slight 49% to 45% edge over Obama. He trailed by eight points among likely voters last month.
__________________ “ I think good coaches will coach with the personnel they have, and if you only have one (good) linebacker, you’re not going to play a 3–4. ”
—Hank Bullough, who installed one of the first 3–4 defenses with the New England Patriots.
But there is no bump in the projected electoral college vote???
They haven't flushed the pre debate polls from their average...
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"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."
Obama is collapsing like a house of cards. Biden better come up big.
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"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."
I think the PEW poll, this time around at least, is somewhat more indicitive of where things are right now, than the last poll was. I do think the sample is important to a degree. Oversampling to far to one party or demographic certainly skews results. I think the previous Pew poll was highly innaccurate because of it's heavily skewed sample. I think this poll, while not as extreme, might be a little too heavy the other way around. What can't be predicted, is what the exit sample of actual voters will look like. We can guesstimate by way of past elections, and maybe add in a few points for enthusiasm, but we won't really know who's going to show up until November 6th. I think the race is close, and will remain so (barring any surprises) until election day. Four weeks in politics is a long time.
It may look close, but there's so many polling methods flying around out there, the information is bound to average out into a "dead heat" because of the sheer amount of polling being done. For all we know, Romney could be up by 15%!
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It may look close, but there's so many polling methods flying around out there, the information is bound to average out into a "dead heat" because of the sheer amount of polling being done. For all we know, Romney could be up by 15%!
There are far too many polls now, and it's almost impossible for the average person to either understand the different methodologies used, or have the time to research them. I personally think the election is within the margin of error, one way or the other. I think it's tightened, or shifted a bit post debate, and I think it's very likely we could see certain events bounce it back and forth again. What's kinda crazy is that any result is actually possible. We could see an Obama or Romney romp on election day, or a squeeker for one side. We could see a popular vote win and electoral result loss (shades of 2000, please no). Or, and this is one that I think might actually happen, we could see one candidate actually win comfortably in the Electoral College, but do so by winning a series of states by a tiny majority of the vote. 1-2% wins in say Florida, Ohio, Virginia, etc. for one candidate. Any outcome at this point, wouldn't surprise me at all. How it's spun post election will also be interesting as well. I just hope the winner doesn't say post election ala GW that he was given a mandate, when 120,000 votes in Ohio were the difference between winning and losing. If Obama wins, hopefully he understand that he just had a very contentious election against a very flawed opponent. If Romney wins he hopefully will know that his victory was more about the publics distaste for Obama than it is about their trust in Romney. I'm really curious to see how it all plays out.
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To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
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"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him." Leo Tolstoy, 1897
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Re: Polls show Rmoney ahead
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