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The lazy voters aren't inspired by Obama anymore the novelty is long gone as are the Hope and Change they were voting for.
While Romney may not inspire the right a whole they are inspired to be rid of Obama.
I'm guessing you mean past Obama votes may not be there?
If so I tend to agree with that ... many of them are back where they were - lazy.
If they are counting those they may be disappointed.
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This article does not look good for Romney. When I read any article I rarely reach a conclusion. What stands out is that 1 in 8 voters in Ohio are effected by the auto bailout which Mitt disapproved. The other point is jobs, as the jobless rate is a point lower then the national average and doing very well in certain areas.
This is not a declaration that Obama wins, but if I were a Romney fan, I would have doubts.
This article does not look good for Romney. When I read any article I rarely reach a conclusion. What stands out is that 1 in 8 voters in Ohio are effected by the auto bailout which Mitt disapproved. The other point is jobs, as the jobless rate is a point lower then the national average and doing very well in certain areas.
This is not a declaration that Obama wins, but if I were a Romney fan, I would have doubts.
So the author looks at the internals of the new NYT/CBS poll of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. Remember this poll along with the WaPO poll (which has similar internals) will dutifully be made part of the RCP average to 'prove' that Romney is way behind in these states.
Quote:
Florida:
In 2004 the vote was R+4.
In 2008 the vote was D+3
CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9.
Ohio:
In 2004 the vote was R+5
In 2008 the vote was D+8
CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9
Pennsylvania:
In 2010 the vote was D+3
In 2008 the vote was D+7
CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9.
This borders on propaganda not polling. The media is commissioning polls (IOW PAYING) to create a narrative. Almost no serious people believe that dem turn out will exceed the 2008 numbers after the way Obama was rebuked by the voters in 2010.
The media is creating narrative where they gaps between the parties will be larger than 2008, IOW the polls are a joke.
One could have a reasonable poll where the turnout model falls between 2004 & 2008 but not many are doing that.
Well if one didn't look at the poll internals and mindlessly beliveve what the media was saying then one would be discouraged/concerned, perhaps that is the point of course.
This article provide a decent overview of the polling game as it is currently being played:
I would also note that dem request for absentee ballots are down 25% from 2008 in Ohio and pub request for absentee ballots are up 30%.
This would not seem to support the contention in their OH poll of a dem turn out model where dem participation is greater than 2008, which was a historic high.
__________________
"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."
So the author looks at the internals of the new NYT/CBS poll of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. Remember this poll along with the WaPO poll (which has similar internals) will dutifully be made part of the RCP average to 'prove' that Romney is way behind in these states.
This borders on propaganda not polling. The media is commissioning polls (IOW PAYING) to create a narrative. Almost no serious people believe that dem turn out will exceed the 2008 numbers after the way Obama was rebuked by the voters in 2010.
The media is creating narrative where they gaps between the parties will be larger than 2008, IOW the polls are a joke.
One could have a reasonable poll where the turnout model falls between 2004 & 2008 but not many are doing that.
Well if one didn't look at the poll internals and mindlessly beliveve what the media was saying then one would be discouraged/concerned, perhaps that is the point of course.
This article provide a decent overview of the polling game as it is currently being played:
I would also note that dem request for absentee ballots are down 25% from 2008 in Ohio and pub request for absentee ballots are up 30%.
This would not seem to support the contention in their OH poll of a dem turn out model where dem participation is greater than 2008, which was a historic high.
As I mentioned, I do not reach a conclusion based on an article, but consider the points it makes. The article actually gave kudos to Romney in certain campaigning strategies. I was not surprised by the response to my post as there can be no good news regarding Obama. This is evidenced with links to Briebart and the Weekly Standard.
I would never wager my enjoyment of posting on this site. Because if I'm wrong, it's either I am out or I am a liar. There can be no good news regarding Obama.
LOLOLOL... the echo chamber is in full panicky denial mode. Now all polling organizations everywhere are part of a liberal elite conspiracy. Meanwhile, the humble People's Candidate, Mitt Romney, boldly tells those elitists that it'll never happen that everybody's kids have access to the kind of education he got. Next up: It's a liberal elitist question to even ask whether all kids should have that access!
Ohio: Obama up by 10. Double freaking digits, guys.
I know Rmoney has been debate-prepping like crazy, and usually the challenger gets a bump from the first debate.
If Stench can't hit a home run in the debates, it's over. And he can't do that if he's doing the "severely conservative" routine.
Yet every time he tacks to the center he alienates his base, and there's the strategic issue that this is a base-driven election, where the "undecideds" are few, far-between, ill-informed, and utterly fickle.
All you guys who decry "redistribution," how do you feel about Rmoney saying at least that he wants to preserve progressivity in the tax code?
Isn't progressivity redistribution? After all, it's not a flat tax.
The trouble is that progressivity is right, whether by biblical values, by humanistic values, or by purely economic values.
Stench's problem is that he has to try to sound bat-shlitz crazy for the base, and do it in a way that he's not ridiculed -- either by the other candidate on inescapable grounds, or (as is always available on any position he takes), by his own former positions.
Can't wait for debate season... I think he'll get an initial bump by even being on the same stage as the president, but I don't think he'll get the home run he needs.
If he actually fails in the debates -- which seems a distinct possibility, given his gaffiness -- I'm thinking the top of the ticket is settled. Think downticket, boys.
LOLOLOL... the echo chamber is in full panicky denial mode. Now all polling organizations everywhere are part of a liberal elite conspiracy. Meanwhile, the humble People's Candidate, Mitt Romney, boldly tells those elitists that it'll never happen that everybody's kids have access to the kind of education he got. Next up: It's a liberal elitist question to even ask whether all kids should have that access!
Ohio: Obama up by 10. Double freaking digits, guys.
I know Rmoney has been debate-prepping like crazy, and usually the challenger gets a bump from the first debate.
If Stench can't hit a home run in the debates, it's over. And he can't do that if he's doing the "severely conservative" routine.
Yet every time he tacks to the center he alienates his base, and there's the strategic issue that this is a base-driven election, where the "undecideds" are few, far-between, ill-informed, and utterly fickle.
All you guys who decry "redistribution," how do you feel about Rmoney saying at least that he wants to preserve progressivity in the tax code?
Isn't progressivity redistribution? After all, it's not a flat tax.
The trouble is that progressivity is right, whether by biblical values, by humanistic values, or by purely economic values.
Stench's problem is that he has to try to sound bat-shlitz crazy for the base, and do it in a way that he's not ridiculed -- either by the other candidate on inescapable grounds, or (as is always available on any position he takes), by his own former positions.
Can't wait for debate season... I think he'll get an initial bump by even being on the same stage as the president, but I don't think he'll get the home run he needs.
If he actually fails in the debates -- which seems a distinct possibility, given his gaffiness -- I'm thinking the top of the ticket is settled. Think downticket, boys.
PFnV
Just say you don't understand the numbers and leave it at that.
__________________
"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."
60Likes
Re: Obama Up 8 Points
Linear Mode
