Well the polling info is certainly interesting especially when one looks at the internals of the polls.
Today Monday CNN released a poll conducted from Friday through Sunday right after the dem convention.
I bring this up because the internals of the poll are very interesting.
The poll shows Obama with a lead of 6% over Romney 52%-46%, even more important it shows Obama over 50% a critical number for an incumbent since the undecideds usually break for the challenger by a 4-1 margin typically. If people haven't decided they want to rehire the incumbent by now they are going to go for the challenger.
The internals can be seen here:
rel10a
Now the internals show that Romney is getting 92% of pubs and Obama 95% of dems (good bounce for Obama since he was at 87% among dems a couple of weeks ago). So that is sort of a push.
The interesting part of the internals has to do with the sample sizes they chose. The chose likely voters which is good (and they also provided results for registered voters).
I want to focus on the splits they chose for the D/R/I in their sample. It was 50-D, 45-R and 5-I. Now the last few elections cycles the Indie have represented anywhere from 28-30% of the turnout (30% in 2010). This is a very low sample size to factor in if you want an accurate result. the number of D/R has varied anywhere from -2 to +7 D (+7D in 2008 and 0 D in 2010). So +5 D seems a bit optimistic.
Lets' look at the independents for however and see how the candidates are doing there.
A couple of weeks ago J Carville and S Greenberg (the Clinton's pollster) did a poll showing Romney up 15% among Independents. It would be very tough for Obama to win if he loses that big among independents than that was part of the warning being issued by democrats Carville and Greenberg. The polls done by firms like Greenberg's are the polls that campaigns pay for and they are pretty accurate because the campaigns need to know exactly what is happening so they can use their resources to maximize their chances of winning.
So when we look at internals of the CNN poll what do we find?
Romney leading by 14% among Independents in the CNN poll, virtually identical to the results of the Carville/Greenberg poll.
If anyone believes that Obama will win if Romney is more than 10%+ among independents then I have this great bridge in Brooklyn I'd like to see you...
It appears that the MSM is creating a narrative to juice the horserace generate ratings and hits.
Enjoy the illusion.
14Likes
Re: Who do you think will end up with the bigger post convention poll bounce?
Linear Mode
