Wolfpack

Despite what some people in here with absolutely no understanding of statistics or statistical methods have been trying to tell us, it turns out Wisconsin isn't quite as "in the bag" for Obama as those ignorant people thought.

Election 2012: Wisconsin President - Rasmussen Reports™

DarrylS

A great way to invite discussion, start off by calling any who opposes your view as ignorant...

Why bother.. just wait for the anticipated likes by the extreeeeemers...

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Patters

Not sure the sense of your first line, since you're not presenting any sort of statistical analysis.

You're merely linking to a poll conducted by a reliable conservative pollster, which has not been doing well in predictions since around 2004. Sure, Obama's in for a tough race, we already knew that, but chances are the dynamics will have to change before Wisconsin becomes a serious target for Romney.

Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly - NYTimes.com

Wolfpack

We're all entitled to our own views, but we are not all entitled to our own facts. Anyone who saw the Wisconsin polling data of the past few weeks and concluded that Obama had the state wrapped up or that he had a "comfortable margin" is ignorant of statistics and statistical methods.

Romney leads in the most recent poll but Wisconsin is, for all intents and purposes, a statistical tie. I hope the liberals continue their ignorance of statistics and do not pour any efforts into campaigning there.

patsfan13

Certainly this result is consistent with what one would expect when we see how far to the left the exit polls were skewed, the gap as opposed to the dead heat indicated by the exit polls mat reflect the horrible week the administration has had: the contempt of congress by Holder on Fast and Furious, the intel leaks from the WH and holder appointing Obama donor to investigate and Obama insanely claiming the private sector is doing well.

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"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."

IllegalContact

I know....I can't stand when people state the obvious

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Wolfpack

My first line is a reference to conversations which have take place in the threads "America and democracy 1, liberalism 0" and "WI power shifts to dems."

While this poll is clearly a new topic, therefore deserving its own thread, some of the discussions overlap.
Your article says in 2010 Rasmussen overstated the republican margin by about 4 points in many cases, which still makes them quite a bit more accurate than last week's media polls which overstated the democrat margin by 7 points.

BTW, did you even read the article you linked? It says Rasmussen did very well in 2004 and 2006, were average in 2008, but did poorly in 2010. So your own article contradicts your statement that they have "not been doing well in predictions since around 2004."
Actually, not everyone already knew that. A lot of liberals - including some in here - considered Obama's lead in WI to be quite comfortable.

patsfan13

Using the NYT whose own polls have been highly biasd to the left as an objective source on Rasmussen?

Very rich indeed

BTW Rasmussen's daily tracking numbers are within a point of Gallup's. or are they biased also?

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"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."

JackBauer

Delicious coming from the guy who didn't know what an outlier was

Wolfpack

Fact is I schooled you on what an outlier was. It became obvious to me that you were too beligerent to admit you were mistaken. Really, Jack, there's no shame in admitting you were wrong about something; in fact, you look quite foolish defending incorrect statements.

I know uneducated people think that whoever has the last word "wins" the argument, so I leave you to have that last word you so desperately crave. And while you're at it, please explain to us all how having a 10 point lead with a 15 point margin of error is better than a 5 point lead with a 3 point margin of error.