Titus Pullo

... if so, big problems are obvious.

We are so close to something in the barn catching fire. The only question that remains is whether it gets contained to a few stalls, or if the whole thing becomes engulfed.



From ZeroHedge:

Albawaba news, which cites Kuwait's al Rai daily, reports that Arab jet fighters, and possibly Turkish warplanes, backed by American logistic support will implement a no fly zone in Syria's skies, after the Arab League will issue a decision, under its Charter, calling for the protection of Syrian civilians. In other words, foreign countries will take it upon themselves to do what only America has done with impunity so far: decide what is best for a given sovereign nation's population. Granted, we have yet to verify the credibility of both Al Bawaba and Al Rai, although at first blush they appear substantially more credible than Debka-type fly by night operations. Which then leads to a sobering conclusion: if indeed Europe and the Western world is dead set upon an aerial campaign above Syria, then all eyes turn to the East, and specifically Russia and China, which have made it very clear they will not tolerate any intervention. And naturally the biggest unknown of all is Iran, which has said than any invasion of Syria will be dealt with swiftly and severely. Then again, the Iranian war foreplay has gone on for far too long at this point that we have gotten to where headlines about the "imminent" Iranian war are almost as ignored as headlines about how "Europe is bailed out" all over again.

From Al Bawaba:

Quote:

The sources told Kuwait's al Rai daily that the no fly ban will include a ban on the movement of Syrian military vehicles, including tanks, personnel carriers and artillery, adding that this move would aim at curbing the movement of Assad forces, and cripple their ability to bomb cities. The European sources said the no fly ban might lead to the paralysis of the Syrian regime forces "in less than 24 hours."

Titus Pullo

and, right on queue:

Russia Retaliates Against US: Puts Radar Station On Combat Alert, Prepares To Take Out European Missile Defense Systems

Medvedev:

"First, I am instructing the Defense Ministry to immediately put the missile attack early warning radar station in Kaliningrad on combat alert. Second, protective cover of Russia's strategic nuclear weapons, will be reinforced as a priority measure under the programme to develop out air and space defenses. Third, the new strategic ballistic missiles commissioned by the Strategic Missile Forces and the Navy will be equipped with advanced missile defense penetration systems and new highly-effective warheads. Fourth, I have instructed the Armed Forces to draw up measures for disabling missile defense system data and guidance systems if need be... Fifth, if the above measures prove insufficient, the Russian Federation will deploy modern offensive weapon systems in the west and south of the country, ensuring our ability to take out any part of the US missile defense system, in Europe. One step in this process will be to deploy Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad Region."

The Brandon Five

This is surprising for a couple of reasons:

1. Syria is about 30th in the world in oil production.
2. We usually wait until just about everyone that we are ostensibly trying to defend is already dead.

This might be a sign that the Syrian opposition has been neutralized.

PatsFanInVa

Just curious - what the hell good is a no-fly zone in a country with something like 15,000 tanks? I mean, I see that the countries in the region are all happy about establishing one, so fine, what the hell. But it's not like they can't just roll into every trouble spot and take care of things up close and personal.

The Iran war drumbeat is bugging me too, but it's biting off more than we can chew, in any sustained fashion. I think we all get this. I have no bloody idea what the plan is, "if it comes to it."

It looks to me like a lot of cold-war style bluster and maybe tweaking their noses from time to time. But ultimately we have to pretty much establish a "doctrine" that nobody goes nuclear unless we say so, and we'll use the fact that we've done so to prevent them from it. We can "beat" Iran in a conventional war, but there are a few dozen others we'll have to whack the same way (and a handful we've chosen not to whack the same way) to uphold that doctrine. We don't have that amount of will or cash -- nobody in today's world does. If we did there would still be five members in the nuclear "club", the US, China, Russia, Britain, and France.

It's one of those situations where the only thing worse than doing nothing will be confrontation.

We'll see. I think what ends up happening is, like N Korea, Pakistan, and India, one day you just wake up and they're testing a nuke. Eh well.

PFnV

The Brandon Five

I think Mrs. Oleary's place has been doused with enough petrol to get something going pretty quick. Only a matter of time.

The Brandon Five

Except that they will use it.

PatsFanInVa

They're not reasonable men like Kim Jong Il?

The Brandon Five

Does KJI believe in martyrdom?

PatsFanInVa

If he just saw a movie about it, yes.

You're really saying Kim Jong Il is a more stable bet for possession of a nuclear weapon than... anybody?

The Brandon Five

He believes in self-preservation. That is the point of having them. I am not sure that is the case with the mullahs.

I am saying that I think Iran is the least stable bet.

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