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Old 11-05-2011, 06:51 PM   #1
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Moreover, the Brotherhood is following a brilliant strategy to build a united front for Sharia, bringing in other clerics and gradually winning over more and more of the religious establishment to an Islamist position.

.... Religious Islam as it has been actually practiced and political Islamism have not been the same thing but they are increasingly becoming the same thing as the Islamists win the battle of interpretation.

... A poll misread by American “experts” supposedly claimed that the Brotherhood had only 13 percent support and was no threat. I analyzed the poll as putting them at 33 percent. A new poll by the Danish-Egyptian Dialogue Institute puts the Brotherhood at 39 percent. I am now predicting that the Brotherhood and other radical Islamists may get to almost 50 percent.


A Radical Islamist government in Egypt will be a diaster.
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Old 11-05-2011, 08:10 PM   #2
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Default Re: Muslim Brotherhood Makes Fools of Naive West

What, exactly, would you advocate that our foreign policy should be? Should we be establishing friendly governments in every nation where governments we don't like take over?
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Old 11-05-2011, 10:29 PM   #3
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Default Re: Muslim Brotherhood Makes Fools of Naive West

My guess is that right-wing ignorance about Sharia is part of the problem here. While Sharia law is consistently quite conservative, not all Muslims use a 14th century interpretation of it as to the Taliban, Al Qaeda, and our allies like Saudi Arabia. There are those who claim to subscribe to Sharia law, but interpret it in light of modern reality. The stupidity of originalist thinking does not exist throughout the Muslim world, anymore than it exists throughout the western world.

Furthermore, whatever happens in Egypt underscores the severe failings of Mubarek. People turn to religion when they don't have jobs, safety, health, etc. to turn to. There was no way to prevent the Arab spring; in the long run, it will lead to progress in the ME, but liberalism is not the first choice of desperate people.
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Old 11-05-2011, 11:11 PM   #4
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Default Re: Muslim Brotherhood Makes Fools of Naive West

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My guess is that right-wing ignorance about Sharia is part of the problem here. While Sharia law is consistently quite conservative, not all Muslims use a 14th century interpretation of it as to the Taliban, Al Qaeda, and our allies like Saudi Arabia. There are those who claim to subscribe to Sharia law, but interpret it in light of modern reality. The stupidity of originalist thinking does not exist throughout the Muslim world, anymore than it exists throughout the western world.

Furthermore, whatever happens in Egypt underscores the severe failings of Mubarek. People turn to religion when they don't have jobs, safety, health, etc. to turn to. There was no way to prevent the Arab spring; in the long run, it will lead to progress in the ME, but liberalism is not the first choice of desperate people.
You know Patters, people like you would be the first in front of the firing squad in any country that was run according to Sharia law. Maybe that's something you should consider as you display you have more hatred of American conservatives than you do Muslim militants.

Jus' sayin'.
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Old 11-06-2011, 04:32 AM   #5
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Default Re: Muslim Brotherhood Makes Fools of Naive West

What do you envision the role ot the US should have been here???

Did you want to spend another couple of trillion of dollars here, the war profiteers would like that???

Maybe send in another force and have more dead soldiers.???..
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Old 11-06-2011, 05:38 AM   #6
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A Radical Islamist government in Egypt will be a diaster.
RADICAL Islam is a disgusting & sickening disease on this earth. Something we need to find a permanent vaccine to eradicate once and for all!

There is a cleric in Iran who converted from Islam to Christianity as a child who is now facing the death penalty for his personal decision. The low-life, scum-sucking evil-faced religious leaders of Iran are a world-wide embaressment.

Lookup "Youcef Nadarkhani"

Incidents like this is why the sane world must force the sharia bullsh1t from all nations.
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Old 11-06-2011, 06:06 AM   #7
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I like Barry Rubin. He's well-researched, but if he has one shortcoming, it's blurring the lines a bit in his analysis and coming up a bit short on his reasoning as a result. I think that's what's happened here.

Radical Islamism in Egypt...that's not the Brotherhood. Whether or not an Islamist is moderate or radical in Egypt depends on their views on violence. The Brotherhood, at one time, heartily employed violence to achieve their ends, especially during the latter days of King Farouk's reign. Nasser waged a brutal campaign against the group and they eventually gave up violence. Egyptian Islamic Jihad and Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiyya are examples of groups that split from the Muslim Brotherhood because the latter refused to endorse violence as a means of confronting the Sadat regime. Interestingly, though the group does not support violence, they do still distribute (on occasion) the literature of Sayyid Qutb, who was a strong advocate of violence in support of Islamism. Because of these things, people still associate the violent track with the Brotherhood. Then again, had Mubarak hung on for much longer (with our support), it's possible that the group might have started to embrace other options for opposing the regime.

As for their view of Sharia law, Patters is actually pretty spot on. The Brotherhood may strongly support Sharia, but they are also very conscious of how easily they will be able to hold on to their support and power. They've taken many pains to interpret Sharia in a way that runs fairly harmoniously with civil law (Bruce Rutherford wrote a great treatise on this, but I can't remember the name of the book now), not unlike what many Western countries had done when they incorporated Christian moral codes within the civil law (including the US).

Of course, there is always going to be doubt as to whether or not the Brotherhood has been trying to pull the wool over everyone's eyes with this "modern interpretation of Sharia law" stuff, but I think they're well aware of the consequences of displeasing the masses. In fact, I get the feeling that there is a fair amount of division within the group, with the older generation being more moderate and the younger being a bit more rigid. That bodes ill for their future as a genuine power party in Egypt.

As for support for the Brotherhood, they had closer to 70% moral support during the Mubarak years, as they and their candidates were jailed and beaten in the run up to and during elections. But, the degree to which that translated to actual support for office is extremely unclear. Somewhere between 13% and 50% is probably right; i.e. we have no real idea. The thinking is that the average Egyptian doesn't have time for Islamist rule and when it comes time to punch the card, they'll not vote for the Brotherhood.

In any event, it's not a time to panic, but Egypt is definitely worth watching. Should the Brotherhood even manage to gain a majority, it bears watching. I think they're going to be careful and calculated in their domestic and foreign policy. They're not Al-Qaeda.
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Old 11-06-2011, 06:13 AM   #8
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I like Barry Rubin. He's well-researched, but if he has one shortcoming, it's blurring the lines a bit in his analysis and coming up a bit short on his reasoning as a result. I think that's what's happened here.

Radical Islamism in Egypt...that's not the Brotherhood. Whether or not an Islamist is moderate or radical in Egypt depends on their views on violence. The Brotherhood, at one time, heartily employed violence to achieve their ends, especially during the latter days of King Farouk's reign. Nasser waged a brutal campaign against the group and they eventually gave up violence. Egyptian Islamic Jihad and Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiyya are examples of groups that split from the Muslim Brotherhood because the latter refused to endorse violence as a means of confronting the Sadat regime. Interestingly, though the group does not support violence, they do still distribute (on occasion) the literature of Sayyid Qutb, who was a strong advocate of violence in support of Islamism. Because of these things, people still associate the violent track with the Brotherhood. Then again, had Mubarak hung on for much longer (with our support), it's possible that the group might have started to embrace other options for opposing the regime.

As for their view of Sharia law, Patters is actually pretty spot on. The Brotherhood may strongly support Sharia, but they are also very conscious of how easily they will be able to hold on to their support and power. They've taken many pains to interpret Sharia in a way that runs fairly harmoniously with civil law (Bruce Rutherford wrote a great treatise on this, but I can't remember the name of the book now), not unlike what many Western countries had done when they incorporated Christian moral codes within the civil law (including the US).

Of course, there is always going to be doubt as to whether or not the Brotherhood has been trying to pull the wool over everyone's eyes with this "modern interpretation of Sharia law" stuff, but I think they're well aware of the consequences of displeasing the masses. In fact, I get the feeling that there is a fair amount of division within the group, with the older generation being more moderate and the younger being a bit more rigid. That bodes ill for their future as a genuine power party in Egypt.

As for support for the Brotherhood, they had closer to 70% moral support during the Mubarak years, as they and their candidates were jailed and beaten in the run up to and during elections. But, the degree to which that translated to actual support for office is extremely unclear. Somewhere between 13% and 50% is probably right; i.e. we have no real idea. The thinking is that the average Egyptian doesn't have time for Islamist rule and when it comes time to punch the card, they'll not vote for the Brotherhood.

In any event, it's not a time to panic, but Egypt is definitely worth watching. Should the Brotherhood even manage to gain a majority, it bears watching. I think they're going to be careful and calculated in their domestic and foreign policy. They're not Al-Qaeda.
Let us hope you're right. But one fact stands clear, religion & politics are a dangerous mix. If I were a citizen of any country where Islam was the religion of the majority, I'd feel much safer if my political & religious leaders were not one in the same.
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Old 11-06-2011, 06:15 AM   #9
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Let us hope you're right. But one fact stands clear, religion & politics are a dangerous mix. If I were a citizen of any country where Islam was the religion of the majority, I'd feel much safer if my political & religious leaders were not one in the same.
You don't have to limit it to Islam.
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Old 11-06-2011, 06:17 AM   #10
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Let us hope you're right. But one fact stands clear, religion & politics are a dangerous mix. If I were a citizen of any country where Islam was the religion of the majority, I'd feel much safer if my political & religious leaders were not one in the same.
See Cain, Bachman and Perry.. they all favor dominionism.
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