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Old 05-17-2008, 06:38 AM   #11
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Default Re: Oil prices: Wall Street's game

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that article is bunk. wall street has nothing to do with the price of commodities. this is all about bush making money for his buddies.
No, but it is about the lack of influence Bush has even with his closest allies like the Saudis and the way money is being redistributed from the poor and middle class to create record-breaking oil prices and and oil company profits.
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Old 05-17-2008, 11:47 AM   #12
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Default Re: Oil prices: Wall Street's game

I was watching ABC news last night, and they were talking about how oil was $27 in 2000 when GW was campaigning for president, and that it's now $127. That got me and my bro talking...

Year 2000:
Quote:
Summer 2000 Motor Gasoline Outlook

Summary

For the upcoming summer season (April to September), motor gasoline markets are projected to exhibit an extraordinarily tight supply/demand balance.


Retail gasoline prices (regular grade) are expected to average $1.46 per gallon, 25 percent higher than last summer’s average of $1.17 per gallon. That projection also exceeds the previous (current-dollar) record summer average of $1.35 recorded in 1981. Nominal prices are expected to reach a peak of $1.52 per gallon in April—a new record--and decline steadily to $1.39 per gallon by September due to the impact of increases in world-wide crude oil production. These projections presume no disruptions of refinery motor gasoline production.


The record price projected for April, after adjusting for inflation, is approximately 40 percent below the peak reached in March 1981. Subsequent adjustment for fuel efficiency increases since then results in about a 60-percent cost reduction over the same period.


Demand is projected to average 8.72 million barrels per day, up 130,000 barrels per day, or 1.5 percent, from last summer. Even though that represents a new summer season record, that growth is well below the average of previous summers.


Motor gasoline stocks are currently low and are projected to remain relatively low throughout the driving season. Total beginning-of-season (April 1) stocks are sharply below last year's levels and are near the low end of the normal range. The average projected finished motor gasoline stock draw this summer is 23,000 barrels per day, less than half that of the previous summer.


Total domestic output (refinery and field production) is projected to average 8.40 million barrels per day during the summer months, up almost 190,000 barrels per day from last summer. Refineries will be expected to meet not only the 130,000 barrels-per-day increase in demand but also to accommodate the reduced availability from stocks and net imports. As a result, refinery utilization rates for the summer are projected to average 96.8 percent, up from 94.3 percent last summer.


Net imports of finished motor gasoline are projected to average 295,000 barrels per day, down from 327,000 barrels per day last summer. This reflects the projected lower availability of supplies from Europe and uncertainties about foreign refiners’ ability to meet Phase II reformulated gasoline specifications


http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub.../summogas.html


Year 2008:
Quote:
The projected prices for crude oil in 2008 will result in higher prices for all petroleum products. Regular-grade gasoline is expected to average $3.52 per gallon in 2008, or 71 cents above the 2007 annual average price. The monthly average regular-grade gasoline price is projected to peak at $3.73 per gallon in June.

Consumption. Total petroleum consumption of liquid fuels and other petroleum products averaged 20.7 million bbl/d in 2007, essentially unchanged from 2006 (U.S. Petroleum Products Consumption Growth). Based on projections of weak economic growth and record high crude oil and product prices, consumption is projected to decline by 190,000 bbl/d in 2008, a sharper drop than the 90,000 bbl/d decline projected in the previous Outlook. After accounting for projected increases in ethanol use, U.S. petroleum consumption is projected to fall by 330,000 bbl/d. In 2009, total petroleum and other liquid fuel consumption is projected to rise by 210,000 bbl/d.



Production. In 2007, domestic crude oil output averaged 5.1 million bbl/d, unchanged from 2006 (U.S. Crude Oil Production). Total output in 2008 is projected to grow by only 10,000 bbl/d. In 2009, domestic crude oil production is projected to average 5.3 million bbl/d, up 210,000 bbl/d from 2008. Federal Gulf of Mexico output is expected to rise by 260,000 bbl/d but declines are projected for Alaska (30,000 bbl/d) and the lower-48 States (20,000 bbl/d).

OPEC Supply. OPEC crude oil production averaged about 32.2 million bbl/d during the first quarter of 2008. Only Saudi Arabia has significant surplus production capacity, currently estimated to be about 1.9 million bbl/d. OPEC crude oil production is expected to remain relatively flat through the third quarter of 2008, though there is the possibility of either higher or lower output in Iraq and Nigeria, depending on how the security situation in each country evolves. EIA expects that OPEC surplus production capacity will not grow significantly until the end of 2008 and will stay concentrated in Saudi Arabia (OPEC Surplus Oil Production Capacity).


http://www.eia.doe.gov/steo

So, while demand & cost per barrell have risen, and refining capacity has not, the increase in cost per barrell has not resulted in an identical increase in cost per gallon. At $27 in 2000, gas was $1.50ish, whereas at $127 per barrell, a gallon is $3.60ish. You'd think that at 4.7x the price per barrell, we'd be paying more than 2.4 times the price per gallon. I'm not an oil man, and I understand that the price per barrell doesn't translate directly to gasoline, but it makes me curious how the disparity can be so significant. Anyone know?
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Old 05-17-2008, 12:10 PM   #13
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Default Re: Oil prices: Wall Street's game

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No, but it is about the lack of influence Bush has even with his closest allies like the Saudis and the way money is being redistributed from the poor and middle class to create record-breaking oil prices and and oil company profits.
Which would be fine, except we get most of our oil from Canada, then Mexico, then the ME.

"record breaking ...profits" is a nice catch phrase, but let's not forget the demand for petro products has skyrocketed world wide. Ten years ago there wasn't the huge demand for energy and other petro products from lubricants to plastics there is world wide now, with China and India's economy growing at amazing speeds, as well as South American countries like Brazil and Chile.
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Old 05-17-2008, 04:23 PM   #14
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Default Re: Oil prices: Wall Street's game

Did anyone mention that global hydrocarbons are running out, and there's nothing man can do about it besides take drastic conservation initiatives?

Oh, someone did? Cool. Just checking.
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Old 05-17-2008, 04:43 PM   #15
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Default Re: Oil prices: Wall Street's game

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Ummm....Obama is the only one NOT promising to do something about gas prices. He opposed suspension of the gas tax. Remember that? What happened to that?
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Old 05-17-2008, 05:05 PM   #16
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Did anyone mention that global hydrocarbons are running out, and there's nothing man can do about it besides take drastic conservation initiatives?

Oh, someone did? Cool. Just checking.
This is wrong we have more than enough to last until we can develop viable biodeisel (a renewable hydrocarbon).

What a silly statement.
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Old 05-17-2008, 05:14 PM   #17
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This is wrong we have more than enough to last until we can develop viable biodeisel (a renewable hydrocarbon).

What a silly statement.
Well it didn't have much of a start...
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Old 05-17-2008, 05:31 PM   #18
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Default Re: Oil prices: Wall Street's game

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This is wrong we have more than enough to last until we can develop viable biodeisel (a renewable hydrocarbon).

What a silly statement.
I assume you're talking about your own poorly researched declaration...

Before I continue, what specific biodeisel source are you referring to? Are you talking about algae?

Quote:
Originally Posted by a.paul View Post
Well it didn't have much of a start...
What's your panacea, Mr. Nothing to see Here, Repub optimist guy?

And for both of you, where is this "plenty of oil" coming from to hold us over before this savior alternative comes to the fore?

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Old 05-17-2008, 05:53 PM   #19
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Here, PC, have a gander over here:
http://www.popularmechanics.com/scie...h/4254875.html

Now...I'm on record here as even suggesting we need higher energy prices (not that I want to pay them) to further spur aggressive development of new energy supplies. Corn based ethanol is a massive clusterduck. However, using the stalk/leaves instead of the kernel is better, and less damaging to the foodstocks--except as cow feed.
Switchgrass is good, something like 8-1 because it doesn't need to be planted, plowed etc.
The original diesel engine ran on peanut oil. There's no reason we can't use plant oils. I'd suggest hemp, rape and soybean. Hemp and rape will grow almost anywhere, and could be a nice cash crop for farmers in the northeast, and of course hemp has other benefits for making into cloth and so forth.
Solar is being researched more heavily now, and will soon (relative term) be accessible to everyone in the form of thin solar panels easily installed on a rooftop. Geothermal is being worked on to better utilize colder water (not every area has the requisite heat in the ground). Wind is being used more and more.

I'm not a big fan of nuclear power even though I've even seen some environmental types suggest it. Now, if they could figure out how to do fusion, that would be ideal.

There's also energy to be derived from the movement of tides and currents.

The practical problem is getting people to take it seriously. And, unfortunately, I think it's going to take $5-6/gallon gas and heating oil to make that happen.

I've also posted here about Termal Depolymerization, literally making oil from organic material, and reclaiming it from petro products (plastics etc).
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Old 05-17-2008, 06:26 PM   #20
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Default Re: Oil prices: Wall Street's game

Our politicians are totally lame. When does someone come out with a real pro average guy policy about energy?

Drill in Alaska and N.Dakota and off shore and flood the market. Every car sold in America will be hybrid and get 30 MPG by 2015. Build nuclear power plants. Build new refineries. And research viable alternative energy. Kill ethanol-it is a waste.

But no there was just a vote on drilling in Anwar last week and it failed in the Senate for fears of the caribou. And all politicians are in the pockets of some special interest group. Too bad both the Republicans and Democrats can't lose big this fall but we are screwed having that 2 party system that is not working for the average person right now.
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