mcgraw_wv

Voters in Iowa in a poll has rated Ron Paul up to 14% to put him in 3rd place for Iowa. In April, his number was just 3%.

That is a major increase in the world of politics, and shows that his efforts in the state are paying off...

If he steals a few early primaries, there is no telling what can happen, there are so many "I like him but he can't win so I won't vote for him" types across the country... If they sense he can win, it could get interesting.

Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Preference

Real World

Personally I think it's Romney's nomination to lose at this point. If Perry gets into the race that might change, but I'm not sure if Perry would be as appealing nationally as Romney would. Interestingly enough, I think Romney is better liked by independent or center right voters, than he is by the GOP base. I think Perry would see more of the opposite. Romney is a fraud for the most part, but certainly capable of the job. He's probably the most qualified and capable in the entire field, including Obama. If Romney were to secure the nomination (a big if of course), I think he'd need to select someone like Ron Paul or that flake Bachman as his running mate, in order to satisfy the Tea Party types and/or the traditional base. We're a long, long ways from the election though.


American Research Group

7/5-11/11; 600 likely Republican caucus-goers, 4% margin of error

Mode: Live telephone interviews

ARG release

Iowa

2012 President: Republican Caucus

21% Bachmann

18% Romney

14% Paul

11% Palin

8% Gingrich

5% Santorum

3% Huntsman

2% Giuliani

2% Cain

2% Pawlenty

2% Perry

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"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him."
Leo Tolstoy, 1897

wistahpatsfan

Paul could very well listen to Paul and vote for him, but as soon as the establishment senses a rally by him, the process to have him pushed aside by using the media will begin.

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JackBauer

Romney's a paper tiger. Once the other candidates tear into him, he's done for.

Should be entertaining if Bachmann wins. Pretty much sums up today's Republican party.

PatriotsReign

From what I've read, Marco Rubio is the favorite to be the VP ticket no matter who wins the nomination. He's the only guy whe can get the latino vote for the GOP and he's viewed as a GOP rising-star

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tehmackdaddy

As much as I like him, Ron Paul isn't an electable candidate. His appearance coupled with his inability to explain his points to John and Jane American won't allow it. That and a majority of America doesn't want such a fringe candidate.

Real World

Ive read the same. I think the people I speak inside the base/tea party, would certainly approve of Rubio. A Romney Rubio ticket would make sense.

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"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him."
Leo Tolstoy, 1897

Real World

I'm not a Romney fan as people in here know from 2008, and do agree that he's a paper tiger, but more so to the base. To independents Romney is very appealing IMO, in times like these. Indy's aren't going to care as much about where he stood on abortion 30 years ago, or whether or not he liked machine guns. They'll be mainly concerned with whether or not he's the best man to turn the economy around from a voters POV. I think Romney is who Obama fears most, if he fears anyone at all.

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"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him."
Leo Tolstoy, 1897

Patters

Given his clear support for racism, he would be a disaster. His belief that private businesses should be allowed to discriminate based on race would obviously hurt minority races more than majority races. He's really a sick man, using rigid ideological thinking in the same ways the Fascists did. While it's no surprise that a state with among the fewest college graduates would elect someone like Rand Paul, I don't think his popularity would run deep enough in other states for him to have a chance.

DarrylS

Breaking news he is not going to run for reelection, instead focusing all of his efforts on the presidency...

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