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Old 06-30-2011, 09:35 PM   #1
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Default Estimating the Impact of Fourth of July

Very interesting ... went to the source ... got to keep the forum fact checking honest.


http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/dyanag...urthOfJuly.pdf

Now we have 4th of July, Nascar and FoxNews to blame - and Budweiser I think.
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Abstract
This paper investigates the role of Fourth of July celebrations in shaping political views and behavior in the United States. We study the impact of Fourth of July during childhood on partisanship and participation later in life.

Our method uses daily precipitation data from 1920-1990 to proxy for exogenous variation in participation on Fourth of July as a child. The estimates imply that days without rain on Fourth of July in childhood increase the likelihood of identifying with the Republicans as an adult, voting for the Republican but not the Democratic candidate, and voter turnout.

Our findings are significant: one Fourth of July without rain before age 18 increases the likelihood of identifying as a Republican at age 40 by 2 percent, the share of people voting for the Republican candidate at age 40 by 4 percent, and the share of people turning out to vote at age 40 by 0.9 percent. The evidence is consistent with childhood experience having foundational effects less susceptible to adult political influence.

It also suggests that there is political congruence between patriotism promoted on Fourth of July and Republican beliefs, as well as Fourth of July transmitting a non-partisan civic duty to vote.
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Old 06-30-2011, 10:32 PM   #2
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Default Re: Estimating the Impact of Fourth of July

I read the same article and I think they have the cause and effect backwards. Going to parades doesn't make someone more likely to be a republicans; rather, being a republican makes someone more likely to go to parade or otherwise celebrate America.

There is a very significant percentage of the liberal population who hate America, hate the military, what America stands for, etc. So obviously they won't be going to any parades anytime soon.

Last edited by Wolfpack; 06-30-2011 at 10:32 PM..
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Old 06-30-2011, 10:52 PM   #3
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Default Re: Estimating the Impact of Fourth of July

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Originally Posted by Wolfpack View Post
I read the same article and I think they have the cause and effect backwards. Going to parades doesn't make someone more likely to be a republicans; rather, being a republican makes someone more likely to go to parade or otherwise celebrate America.

There is a very significant percentage of the liberal population who hate America, hate the military, what America stands for, etc. So obviously they won't be going to any parades anytime soon.
What is a "significant percentage"? Because I've never known a single who your description would fit. And even here in librul west LA, the 4th is a pretty big holiday, including parades.

I'd guess the "significant %" you allude to is more than matched by pubbies who talk a big game re loving America but demonstrate that they hate American principles through their actions.
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Old 07-01-2011, 01:44 AM   #4
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Default Re: Estimating the Impact of Fourth of July

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Originally Posted by Wolfpack View Post
I read the same article and I think they have the cause and effect backwards. Going to parades doesn't make someone more likely to be a republicans; rather, being a republican makes someone more likely to go to parade or otherwise celebrate America.

There is a very significant percentage of the liberal population who hate America, hate the military, what America stands for, etc. So obviously they won't be going to any parades anytime soon.

This type of blanket generalization about "liberals" above, is the reason why conservatives often get labeled as sexist or racist or xenophobic, because certain individuals like Wolfpack apply extremely simplistic childish thinking to generalize entire groups of people.

And by the way, most recent studies have shown that liberal members of Congress have spent far more time in active military duty than many conservative members have. There's a big difference between simplistically saying liberals hate America, compared to, say, acknowledging how ridiculous some events are like Columbus Day (think about it).

Pathetically accusing people of being anti-American during intellectual or policy debates, is how conservatives managed to get us right now into Iraq and Afghanistan. Those morons who use this tactic are anti-intelligence and accuse anyone of using their brain as being against their fascist idea of what America is. You see them even turn on other conservatives, whether it be Ron Paul or Mitt Romney if they disagree with their own views. Some of these wackos probably think Ron Paul is anti-American because he talks about blowback, how our foreign policy has caused many of our current troubles, and pushes for less foreign intervention.
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Last edited by DropKickFlutie; 07-01-2011 at 01:49 AM..
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Old 07-01-2011, 04:03 AM   #5
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Default Re: Estimating the Impact of Fourth of July

Conclusion: It rains a lot more on the coasts, where Dems cluster.

Precip Map



2010 electoral map




So I take it that what happens with Western states is the sun shines every fourth of July, everybody goes to parades, and therefore their critical thinking is impaired to the point where they can vote Republican.

Or, any correlation is connected to the fact that culturally you are most likely to be a Republican in places with less rain, the interior South excepted (where you get lots of rain and Republicans.)

But then, the South has that whole race history thing to swell Republican ranks among the majority white population.

Pieces of cloth and sparkly displays in the sky are wonderful. Hell, I spend the fourth watching a panorama of a couple of dozen jurisdictions around our nation's capital -- and the national show, down at the Mall -- from my balcony. They're pretty. They're not America.

America is the Constitution, which the right loves to talk about but also wants to destroy, repealing the amendments that make us free across the nation, such as the 18th. America is the wellbeing of me and my countrymen, which the right wants to destroy by touching off another round of economic misery, by degrading the credit history of a nation that's been unimpugned since the eighteenth century (and which itself is ensconced in the 14th amendment.) America is rights for human beings, which the right has twisted into rights for corporations. America is a nation built by waves of immigrants, which the right wants to twist into hatred of immigrants. America is freedom to vote to elect your representatives, which the right wants to condition and limit for their own purposes. America is freedom to associate and assemble, which the right wants to destroy through their union-busting activities. America is fifty stars on one blue field -- and the right gets excited when its heroes talk about their states seceeding.

Wave your fu(kin' flags. If you loved this country, you'd love its people.

PFnV

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Old 07-01-2011, 04:12 AM   #6
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Default Re: Estimating the Impact of Fourth of July

Parades are often an over the top demonstration of american "values".. all bells and whistles. Most have become a traffic deadlock.

Many prefer to celebrate the 4th quietly with family, cherishing our nations values and freedoms.. some wave flags, others enjoy the liberty.

My preference is an irreverent Mardi Gras Parade, either Krewe de Vieux, Tucks or Muses which poke fun at everyone, and demonstrate our constitutional rights....
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Old 07-01-2011, 08:10 AM   #7
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Default Re: Estimating the Impact of Fourth of July

Quote:
Originally Posted by DropKickFlutie View Post
This type of blanket generalization about "liberals" above, is the reason why conservatives often get labeled as sexist or racist or xenophobic, because certain individuals like Wolfpack apply extremely simplistic childish thinking to generalize entire groups of people.
This forum is a generalization disaster area on both sides.
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Old 07-01-2011, 08:19 AM   #8
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Old 07-01-2011, 08:35 AM   #9
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Default Re: Estimating the Impact of Fourth of July

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Yep, that's the true impact!

Anyway, I'm glad there's no rain in the forecast today. I was starting to feel a little too liberal from all the rain that came with the last two storms
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Old 07-01-2011, 09:00 AM   #10
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Wave your fu(kin' flags. If you loved this country, you'd love its people.
(some restrictions apply. pubbies, righties and southerners not included)
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