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Sun's Fading Spots Signal a Big Drop in Solar Activity
Announcement today at American Astronomical Society meeting. This if true could be very important, if this turns into a Mauder minimum situation we could be looking at a growing season in the Northern Hemisphere that is 30 to 60 days shorter.
They can't predict Solar activity accurately (see the post on Chaos & computer models) However they are Observing (empirical data) significant changes that are bigger than anticipated (many had predicted a quieter sun than normal but we may be going below those predictions.
Some unusual solar readings, including fading sunspots and weakening magnetic activity near the poles, could be indications that our sun is preparing to be less active in the coming years.
The results of three separate studies seem to show that even as the current sunspot cycle swells toward the solar maximum, the sun could be heading into a more-dormant period, with activity during the next 11-year sunspot cycle greatly reduced or even eliminated.
The results of the new studies were announced today (June 14) at the annual meeting of the solar physics division of the American Astronomical Society, which is being held this week at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces.
A lot of commentary here and discussions of implications based on studies that have been out for awhile.
The so-called torsional oscillation is a pattern of migrating zonal flow bands that move from midlatitudes towards the equator and poles as the magnetic cycle progresses. Helioseismology allows us to probe these flows below the solar surface. The prolonged solar minimum following Cycle 23 was accompanied by a delay of 1.5 to 2 years in the migration of bands of faster rotation towards the equator. During the rising phase of Cycle 24, while the lower-level bands match those seen in the rising phase of Cycle 23, the rotation rate at middle and higher latitudes remains slower than it was at the corresponding phase in earlier cycles, perhaps reflecting the weakness of the polar fields. In addition, there is no evidence of the poleward flow associated with Cycle 25. We will present the latest results based on nearly sixteen years of global helioseismic observations from GONG and MDI, with recent results from HMI, and discuss the implications for the development of Cycle 25.
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"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."
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Re: Sun's Fading Spots Signal a Big Drop in Solar Activity
The sun in general has looked far more orange than yellow here in North Florida, could be becuase of wild fire haze off in the distance, but's it a very odd looking sun thes epast 2 days.
Re: Sun's Fading Spots Signal a Big Drop in Solar Activity
Could be the big wildfire in Az.
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"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."
Re: Sun's Fading Spots Signal a Big Drop in Solar Activity
This is important as it is the sun that drives climate. Is this related to the talk a year or so ago about us possible entering a period of global cooling?
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"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him." Leo Tolstoy, 1897
Re: Sun's Fading Spots Signal a Big Drop in Solar Activity
Quote:
Originally Posted by Real World
This is important as it is the sun that drives climate. Is this related to the talk a year or so ago about us possible entering a period of global cooling?
That is correct. This report goes further and indicated a scenario where the sun spots stop altogether for ???? time?
If you look at teh graph if the Gauss falls below 1500= no sun spots at all, at the current rate that could happen 5 years out.
__________________
"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."
Re: Sun's Fading Spots Signal a Big Drop in Solar Activity
Quote:
Originally Posted by patsfan13
Could be the big wildfire in Az.
It's actually due to the deveral large wildfires here in NorthFlorida... for the past 3 weeks Jacksonville has been blanketed in smoke, and it's even rained ash more than a few times.
Re: Sun's Fading Spots Signal a Big Drop in Solar Activity
BTW IF, we see a Dalton or Mauder type minimumit will provide a test of wether the CO2 crowd is correct or not. Schmidy and Hansen are on record that CO2 doubling will cause a 3.7W/M increase in radiation they are on the record that an even like the Mauder would only have a -.5W/M reduction in radiation. We will also be able to see in there is an increase in cosmic rays hitting the atmosphere and causing cloud formation cooling the planet, as per Svensmark.
So if things cool the Algore crowd is wrong. The bigger problem is that if we see a prolonged period of cooling like the Little Ice Age, it could severely impact crop production.
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"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."
Re: Sun's Fading Spots Signal a Big Drop in Solar Activity
Quote:
Originally Posted by patsfan13
BTW IF, we see a Dalton or Mauder type minimumit will provide a test of wether the CO2 crowd is correct or not. Schmidy and Hansen are on record that CO2 doubling will cause a 3.7W/M increase in radiation they are on the record that an even like the Mauder would only have a -.5W/M reduction in radiation. We will also be able to see in there is an increase in cosmic rays hitting the atmosphere and causing cloud formation cooling the planet, as per Svensmark.
So if things cool the Algore crowd is wrong. The bigger problem is that if we see a prolonged period of cooling like the Little Ice Age, it could severely impact crop production.
that's OK......there are plenty of empty commercial warehouses available to grow crap indoors........tomatoes the size of basketballs
Re: Sun's Fading Spots Signal a Big Drop in Solar Activity
Quote:
Originally Posted by IllegalContact
that's OK......there are plenty of empty commercial warehouses available to grow crap indoors........tomatoes the size of basketballs
What about Wheat, Corn and Rice......?
__________________
"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."
Re: Sun's Fading Spots Signal a Big Drop in Solar Activity
Quote:
Originally Posted by patsfan13
What about Wheat, Corn and Rice......?
same thing.......
you can actually have 22 levels of wheat growing in a 50 foot-high warehouse.......that's 22 acres of wheat in a 50,000 square foot warehouse.......and the yield would be 4-5X per square foot due to the controlled environment. that's 100 acres of wheat in an industrial park somewhere near your house. you can literally have 3 harvests per year provided you maintain the soil (organic fertilization along with a bit of nitrogen)
the best thing about having problems is that someone gave us the ability to deal with them. the only thing that is more insane than the harm we are capable of inflicting upon ourselves is the things that people come up with to save themselves
Corn is a much lower yield given its height, but you could manage 4 or 5 levels.
Rice you could do underground, next to the mushrooms
Last edited by IllegalContact; 06-16-2011 at 10:04 AM..
Sun's Fading Spots Signal a Big Drop in Solar Activity
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