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Double dip in housing employment number way below predicted levels and previous month employment numbers revised down, talk of QE3 (printing more money).
What a mess.
First the Housing Double Dip (more bailouts for Frannie & Freddie)
U.S. single-family home prices dropped in March, dipping below their 2009 low, as the housing market remained bogged down by inventory and weak demand watched survey said Tuesday.
"This month's report is marked by the confirmation of a double-dip in home prices across much of the nation," David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Indices, said in a statement. "Home prices continue on their downward spiral with no relief in sight."
"All will have to take new markdowns if these price pressures continue, which everything points to the fact that it will," says Peter Boockvar at Miller Tabak. "Bank balance sheets are still cluttered with mortgage loans, and they are still being asked to take back bad mortgages from those that bought them, like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, so the lower home prices go, the risk rises that another round of balance sheet write downs may be necessary."
And speaking of Fannie and Freddie (and I'll throw in private label and FHA), when you consider the enormous volume of bank-owned (REO) inventory of foreclosed properties they're holding....
...you have to also consider what a drop in home values means to all that. The chart we have shows all the REO without the banks included, as we don't know that, but if you take additional data from RealtyTrac showing total REO inventory at 872,990 in May and multiply it by the latest median home price from the National Association of Realtors ($163,700 in April), you get around $142.9 billion in value at risk minus at least a 25 percent discount because it's a foreclosure already.
Well 200b in mortgage bailouts down the drain, and of course the billions blown by Frannie and Freddie Mac.
Bur jobs are taking off right.......well not really. from ADP (non farm payroll this Friday am)
Quote:
• ADP reported that, based on its payroll tally, 38,000 private jobs were created in May — 100,000 short of the minimum needed for healthy growth.
• Employment consultant Challenger, Gray & Christmas said businesses cut 37,135 jobs last month, up nearly 2% from April.
The Institute for Supply Management reported its factory activity index tumbled from 60.4 in April to 53.5 in May — the lowest since September 2009.
What we’ve got right now is almost near panic going on with money managers and people who are responsible for money," he said. "They can not find a yield and you just don’t want to be putting your money into commodities or things that are punts that might work out or they might not depending on what happens with the economy.
"We need to find real yield and real returns on these assets. You see bad data, you see Treasurys rally, you see all bonds and all fixed-income rally and then the people who are betting against the U.S. economy start getting bearish on stocks. That’s a huge mistake."
Stocks extended losses after the manufacturing fell below expectations in May and the private sector added only 38,000 jobs during the month.
"Interest rates are amazingly low and that, thanks to Ben Bernanke, is driving everything," Yastrow said. "We’re on the verge of a great, great depression. The [Federal Reserve] knows it.
I predicted thsi before Obama was elected I knew he would be a total disaster, sadly I underestimated how bad he would be.
__________________
"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."
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Question: You know what would have happened had the Administration not intervened... how, exactly?
We do know without a doubt that the last pubbie was a disaster, and that the lion's share of spending in the present administration was to mop up that mess and pay interest on that earlier spending.
Why the sudden concern, 13, when from 2000 to 2008 you guys spent the majority of your time tearing your hair out about terrorists behind every potted fern?
By the way, I understand that after the usual rush of bills about regulating women's medical procedures and trying to de-fund big bird, the GOP put out a "jobs plan." It was 10 pages, primarily composed of pretty color charts.
Where are the jobs, Mr. Boehner? Or more accurately, where is the slightest scintilla of concern about jobs?
Wait is this one more thing that will be solved by coupons instead of medicare? And if your coupons aren't enough is the plan still to trade chickens for kidneys?
The pubbies campaigned in '10 by threatening that Democrats will take away your medicare by also demanding insurance for younger Americans. Now they're campaigning on taking away Medicare just for the hell of it.
How anybody can still not see through these hopeless ideologues is beyond me.
Question: You know what would have happened had the Administration not intervened... how, exactly?
The best information we have on what would have happened in the administration didn't explode the deficit and the number of unemployed on their watch is to look at their own estimates of what would have happened without the Obama approach and to look at history.
The administration missed their targets for unemployment they said if we did nothing then unemployment would go all the way up to 8.4% and would be ~7.5% at this time. Of course in retrospect that would be very good. Based on subsequent results we would have been far better off doing nothing and letting the recession play out.
Their projections for revenue and growth were also missed and of course the size of the budget deficits and debt are far beyond their projections. I have posted the data on a number of occassions.
Quote:
We do know without a doubt that the last pubbie was a disaster, and that the lion's share of spending in the present administration was to mop up that mess and pay interest on that earlier spending.
Well they weren't very good that is for sure. They put the Prescription drug benefit while not as big a disaster as Obamacare it was not helpful then there was no child left behind and all the pork spending. They didn't push for the tax reforms put forward by the Bush tax commission (a Flat Tax or a repeal of the 16th amendment and a NRST), they backed off when the dems demagogued mention of entitlement reform, The didn't push to reform CRA when they knew it was a problem (backed down when B Franks said everything was fine and accused them of racism). Then when the pubs lost congress. Bush didn't confront Pelosi and Reid on their explosion of spending and the deficit. Shame on him for not vetoing their reckless expansion of government
While the pubs record was bad we need to remember that when the speakers gavel was handed to Pelosi and when Reid became the Majority leader the deficit was 160B, that looks great compared to the 1.6T + being run by the current morons.
Quote:
Why the sudden concern, 13, when from 2000 to 2008 you guys spent the majority of your time tearing your hair out about terrorists behind every potted fern?
PFnV
I spoke out against the Drug Benefit, no child left behind, the first tax refund and said the pubs lost congress due to their spending. Problem is the dems are doing everything wrong the pubs did but by a factor of 10x.
They did the country a favor with the bailouts and Obamacare which created the Tea Party which hopefully will get control of the Republican party from Bush Rove and the beltway crowd.
Obama is crushing the economy and that is the fact.
__________________
"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."
By the way, I understand that after the usual rush of bills about regulating women's medical procedures and trying to de-fund big bird, the GOP put out a "jobs plan." It was 10 pages, primarily composed of pretty color charts.
Where are the jobs, Mr. Boehner? Or more accurately, where is the slightest scintilla of concern about jobs?
Wait is this one more thing that will be solved by coupons instead of medicare? And if your coupons aren't enough is the plan still to trade chickens for kidneys?
The pubbies campaigned in '10 by threatening that Democrats will take away your medicare by also demanding insurance for younger Americans. Now they're campaigning on taking away Medicare just for the hell of it.
How anybody can still not see through these hopeless ideologues is beyond me.
PFnV
The Rayn budget would have sent a strong signal to the markets as would the repeal of Obamacare but Reid and Obama have blocked both attempts at fiscal sanity and the economy continues in the doldrums and looks like it will tank.
__________________
"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."
I predicted thsi before Obama was elected I knew he would be a total disaster, sadly I underestimated how bad
Gee, what a limb you put yourself out on, o' great partisan rationalizer. Too bad everyone did also, ... if not, then maybe the trophy you're awarding yourself would have actually been earned.
We all could see unavoidable disaster approaching back in 2005-07, and it had absolutely nothing to do with Obama. I'm fairly certain most people on this forum knew the economy was in the prone position and ready to "take it" after years of deregulation, toxic lending, skyrocketing oil prices and corporate fraud.
The thing is the republican base and the Obama base are hunkered down with fingers pointed directly at each other. The problem Obama has to overcome is with the people in between and who they hold responsible for the current climate. The longer we're stuck in this stagnant economy, the more Obama will be blamed.
Last edited by PatsWSB47; 06-02-2011 at 11:07 AM..
Question: You know what would have happened had the Administration not intervened... how, exactly?
We do know without a doubt that the last pubbie was a disaster, and that the lion's share of spending in the present administration was to mop up that mess and pay interest on that earlier spending.
Why the sudden concern, 13, when from 2000 to 2008 you guys spent the majority of your time tearing your hair out about terrorists behind every potted fern?
PFnV
Loving the imagery PFnV I like to write essays w/ such luscious images.
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"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him." Leo Tolstoy, 1897
33Likes
Economy Tanking Again
Linear Mode
