Real World

There's no question that this has been a terrific, in terms of entertainment value, primary election on both sides of the isle. There are all kinds of angles, views, ages, ethnicities, races, genders, possibilities, messages, positions, etc to go along with candidates of old & new. Today, I'm going to focus a thread on the republican side (later in the week I'll do one on the Dems), as the race seems to be boiling down to a couple of candidates in a once clogged field, who have separated themselves from the pack. Those two would be Mitt Romney & John McCain.

I ask what the republicans will do because of the nature of the 2008 election. The GOP, by it's own fault, has given the Dems a sizable head start in the race to the November finish line. Everyone knows that simply being a Republican will be a strike in the general campaign. Therefore, like in no other year, the term "electability" becomes key for the GOP and it's voters. With the once congested field of undesirables being whithered down to 4 possibles, but 2 frontrunners, I've come to the conclusion that the race is now between Romney & McCain, two very different candidates in eyes of voters. One, McCain is not embraced by the hard core conservative base of the republican party. Viewed as a maverick of sorts, and his honesty, McCain has been the victim of his transparency. People know where he stands and therefore, he's easy to like to or dislike. Romney, viewed more so as a panderer, has the resume of actually running something, while claiming to hold traditional conservative principles, even though his past positions may say otherwise. This is where the dilemma begins for the GOP. Do they go with the honest guy who holds some key conservatives traits, but is very far off on critical others, or do they go with the more traditional candidate, who looks more the part of the party's fundamental platform? McCain the maverick, or Romney the "republican". The reason this question is so important for the republican party, is because of this years election catch phrase, "electability". To put it bluntly, McCain has it nationally, and Romney does not. So what does the GOP do? Nominate the man they're not too fond of, but respect, or go with the man who looks & plays the part of the party's platform? I ask this because the situation in Florida seems to be playing this out quite specifically. Is Florida going to decide the GOP nominee?

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"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him."
Leo Tolstoy, 1897

jack

I would consider McCain, he would be more flexible and willing to compromise with the dems....And I believe he would restore fiscal responsibility.....Thats change..

Romney is a professional politician/used car salesman.

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STFarmy

I used to think so, but I think it will more likely be Super Tuesday. At this point, i really think Romeny is going to get it. As Thompson pulled out, and I think Huck and Guiliani are virtually dead in the water, they will lobby support with the more conservative of the two choices. I've already heard the typical whining and kvetching about McCain from the talk radio world. If McCain is the nominee, I tend to think that the Dems will win, as conservatives will stay home or get behind a 3rd party candidate.

Real World

Well, I agree with you on one thing, and disagree with you on another. I also think it's looking more & more like Romney is going to get the nomination. I think people like McCain, and certain aspects/qualities about him, but they can't get past his Amnesty, other assorted conservative issues. Romney, by virtue of talking more the part, and not having a genuine conservative alternative, therefore gets the support of the base. I will say that Romney has really, really improved since his campaign began. He's actually done very well in the last couple of debates, whereas he was awful early on. Never the less, I'm beginning to think Romney is going to get the nomination, although it's clearly still up for grabs.

Where we part company is with respect to the national election. The reason why I started this thread, is because I see McCain as beating, potentially, either dem candidate, while I see Romney loosing to either one. McCain will mop up the independents, and with Coke or Pepsi being today's politics (witness the record voting in 2004 for two boobs), conservatives will show up in high numbers simply because they won't want Hillary or Obama winning. I'm sure McCain would suffer from some conservatives staying home, but he'll more than make up for that with independents, and unfortunatley, the sexist and racist vote. Romney on the other hand, might , and I stress might because he has religious issues among other things, get conservatives to show up, but he simply won't do well with independents. Remember, indy's really do decide elections these days. Basically, I think the GOP would win with McCain, but lose with Romney. What would you do? Nominate the guy you think can win, or the guy who best fits your platform? You'd think with politics winning would be key, but it doesn't look like it here, which I find surprising.

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"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him."
Leo Tolstoy, 1897

STFarmy

I see your point about McCain getting independents, and I think that's very strong. I'm just think that it's a good possibility that the neo-cons, who have been pandered to for the past eight years by the republicans, will pitch a hissy fit and throw up a third party candidate and split the vote, causing a potential loss (ala Nader in 2000 or Perot in 92). Who knows, may they won't. I can actually envision Romney beating Hilary, but not so much Obama. Hilary so mobilizes those that hate her (still a good 40%), they will go out of their way to vote against her.

Stokes

Its a problem for me personally, as I prefer Romney to McCain but worry that if he gets the nomination he's a goner in the general election. I just hope that people decide between them based on the issues rather than electability. Remember, it was his electability that got the Dems to choose John Kerry, and look how that turned out. Thing about McCain is that right now he's more popular with independents, but you never know what he's going to say next. He's kind of a wild card like that. He insists on needling the conservative base without a real need to, and I worry that he's going to say something to piss off voters during the general election.

patsfan13

Romney has the best chance nationally. IMO Hillary will be too damage to beat Romney. Conservatives will SIT out the election if McCain is nominated.

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"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."

Real World

I dunno. I don't want to say never, cuz anything is possible and the election is 9 months away, but Romney would suffer nationally IMO. His only hope is the anti Hillary vote, or Obama being an uber liberal in a heads up campaign. Even with that, he'd be like a 20 point underdog in a Superbowl IMO.

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"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him."
Leo Tolstoy, 1897

BelichickFan

I'd prefer an "OK" Republican to either of the Democrats. I don't expect to get my perfect Republican, not by a long shot, but I will vote for the most electable one in the primary because a flawed Republican is still better than the other options.

Terry Glenn is a cowgirl