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Old 05-24-2011, 04:40 PM   #21
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Default Re: N.Y. Special Election

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Last I checked, NY is a very blue state. I've heard that this is a "conservative" district and all, but it's NY conservative.
Something to be said for that. A "conservative district" in Texas is going to be a different kettle of fish from a "conservative district" in New York.

I wouldn't call this a bellweather for the nation's political direction (whichever way it goes), but that's just me.
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Old 05-24-2011, 09:13 PM   #22
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Default Re: N.Y. Special Election

They just called the win for Democrat Kathleen Hochul.


Only the 4th democrat in that district since the 1800s
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Old 05-24-2011, 09:38 PM   #23
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Default Re: N.Y. Special Election

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I wouldn't call this a bellweather for the nation's political direction (whichever way it goes), but that's just me.
But it is a useful case study for the issues that are going to define the 2012 election.

Unfortunately for the Republicans, they've hitched their wagon to essentially the least popular set of policy proposals short of mandatory confiscatory taxation. This does not auger well for the GOP next year; it'll be interesting to see whether Republicans in swing districts run left or go down with the sinking ship.

Either way, I think you're seeing the early signs of a huge strategic miscalculation by the GOP. Serves them right for listening to a charlatan like Paul Ryan.

Last edited by JackBauer; 05-24-2011 at 09:41 PM..
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Old 05-24-2011, 09:59 PM   #24
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Default Re: N.Y. Special Election

All but four House Republicans are on record in support of the Ryan plan.

NY-26 has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+6.

There are current 71 Republicans representing districts of R+1 through R+6.

There are currently 25 Republicans representing even PVI districts or D+x districts.

Ruh ro.
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Old 05-24-2011, 11:29 PM   #25
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But it is a useful case study for the issues that are going to define the 2012 election.

Unfortunately for the Republicans, they've hitched their wagon to essentially the least popular set of policy proposals short of mandatory confiscatory taxation. This does not auger well for the GOP next year; it'll be interesting to see whether Republicans in swing districts run left or go down with the sinking ship.

Either way, I think you're seeing the early signs of a huge strategic miscalculation by the GOP. Serves them right for listening to a charlatan like Paul Ryan.
I think those are mostly fair points. Unfortunately, most of the swing voters are fed up with both parties. I suspect it will be hard for either party to hold power for very long until we have some fundamental changes in the thinking in Washington.
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Old 05-25-2011, 03:37 AM   #26
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Default Re: N.Y. Special Election

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I think those are mostly fair points. Unfortunately, most of the swing voters are fed up with both parties. I suspect it will be hard for either party to hold power for very long until we have some fundamental changes in the thinking in Washington.
I agree, every congressional election we sweep in new people to make something new and better, but every time the influence of K St. changes their idealism and the status quo ensues. .

In this election the Chamber of Commerce and Crossroads(Karl Rove's Group) spent millions to no avail.. Corwin herself spent $60.00 per vote of her own cash...

I suspect for the rest of my lifetime this will continue, as Congress, despite all of its new blood is still polling in the teens.
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Old 05-25-2011, 02:31 PM   #27
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“I have almost always voted the party line,” said Gloria Bolender, a Republican from Clarence who is caring for her 80-year-old mother. “This is the second time in my life I’ve voted against my party.”

Pat Gillick, a Republican from East Amherst, who also cast a ballot for Ms. Hochul, said, “The privatization of Medicare scares me.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/25/ny...tion.html?_r=1
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Old 05-25-2011, 03:36 PM   #28
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the poll #s shifted May 18-19, 2011

New York's 26th congressional district special election, 2011 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

May 18th: Corwin, a state legislator who is supportive of Ryan’s agenda, defended the GOP push for entitlement reform. “The plan I am supporting is not a voucher system,” she insisted. “We have to take action now, because what my opponent is advocating for is to do nothing. If we do nothing, the plan goes bankrupt in 13 years.”

The Battle for Western New York - By Robert Costa - The Corner - National Review Online

The VERY NEXT DAY she goes from 31% to 17%

While Hochul said this: “I have made a commitment that I will take to my grave,” said Hochul, the Erie County clerk. “I will fight any plan that tries to decimate Medicare.”

and shot up 10 points....

But by all means, believe whatever you want....This isn't rocket science.
By not addressing our financial situation they are all participating in a plan that will decimate Medicare (and everything else).
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Old 05-25-2011, 03:53 PM   #29
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By not addressing our financial situation they are all participating in a plan that will decimate Medicare (and everything else).
so....we deregulate, cut taxes, eliminate unions, and go to war instead?

last time I checked, thats whats been going on for a while and our economy is screwed.




bottom line is this....



Running on voucher for medicre is political suicide. The republicans are holding on to the wrong side of THE most toxic issue now. Its senseless, and I love it. I wish MORE republicans would praise Ryan as a courageous patriot. Because, honestly, repubican policy is a proven failure.

They should be banned from public service.
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Old 05-27-2011, 11:58 AM   #30
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Default Re: N.Y. Special Election

BTW looks like the conservatives moved out and perhaps the district will go away.

American Thinker Blog: The silver lining behind the NY 26 cloud


Quote:
Buffalo lost nearly 11% of its population since 2000, while Rochester fell by more than 4%.

...
New York and Ohio each lose 2 seats; Texas gains 4 seats

Illinois and Massachusetts each lose 1 seat; Florida gains 2 seats

Michigan loses 1 seat; Arizona gains 1 seat

New Jersey loses 1 seat; South Carolina gains 1 seat

Pennsylvania loses 1 seat; Utah gains 1 seat

Iowa loses 1 seat; Nevada gains 1 seat

Missouri loses 1 seat; Georgia gains 1 seat

Louisiana loses 1 seat; Washington gains 1 seat





Result of the 2010 census, At the link there was speculation the 16th would be a district to be eliminated. Can you say Pyrrhic victory?
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