chicowalker

Please tell us how you arrived at your "probability" of life starting, and how you arrived at your conclusion.

patsfan13

See the links in post 27.

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"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."

chicowalker

Your link re Overman is a review that criticizes his math and (understandably) doesn't explain how he defined what each "chance" is when applying probabilities.

So I still have no idea how you're arriving at your conclusion that "the probability of life existing in more than 1 galaxy is essentially zero"

patsfan13

If you look at Hoyle's number 10^40000 power. Yockey believes that number is optimistic. His number is higher. The lower the probability of life occurring, the lower the odds it would happen in more than 1 place. Sort of like winning 2 lotteries consecutively.

These aren't "my numbers" since I don't have the knowledge to do the calculations. I am referencing the numbers from the most credible people I know of.

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"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."

chicowalker

Hoyle's claims in this area are hardly credible. His 10^40000 figure is highly flawed given what it claims to represent, but that wasn't the # I was asking you for. I was asking what the # of chances are. (In otherwords, I'm not asking you for the odds of heads coming up -- I'm asking how you -- or he -- is defining the number of tosses, if you (he) want to assign probabilities.)

Overman is a creationist attorney.

As for the odds of life existing, obviously the lower the probability, the lower odds of life occurring in more than one place. That's axiomatic. I'm asking how you leap from that to your conclusion that "the probability of life existing in more than 1 galaxy is essentially zero." (As for winning lotteries consecutively -- the odds are low, but enter enough lotteries and it will happen. Sso to bring it back to my question, how are you/Hoyle defining the # of lotteries, since that's as critical as the supposed probability of the result occurring.)

patsfan13

If you have sources and numbers you feel are credible please provide links I would be happy to examine them.

__________________
"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."

chicowalker

I don't. As I stated earlier, my belief is that trying to assign probabilities to this is meaningless. (This is a view shared by the few physicists I know, fwiw.)

Bottom line to me is directional. Of course the chance of life starting seems miniscule. (I say "seems" because I don't claim to understand how it can occur at all, or that it had a scientific beginning.) That said, the universe is a pretty big place, and it has existed for a while. So what seems impossible because if "low odds" may actually be probable. Kind of like your lottery example. Seems impossible to win twice in a row, but if the lottery is being run in each room of each household in the world, and each is run 1000 times per second, at some point you are going to hit it twice in a row.

The Brandon Five

Then we are in agreement. Everyone's views on this subject come down to a set of beliefs.

Umm, you didn't. Don't take every statement I make as a rebuttal of one of yours. Can't I offer my own opinions?

chicowalker

Sure. I think many people make the mistake of trying to conflate religion and science when it comes to the topics of where life and the universe came from. That's understandable, but I think it's a waste of time when people try to use science to prove or disprove the existence of god.


When it's a reply to a post and part of an ongoing exchange, it's not always easy to know.

patsfan13

Both Hoyle and Yockey are physicist BTW.

__________________
"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."