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Old 01-08-2008, 09:56 PM   #51
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Default Re: The US has entered its first economic recession in 16 years

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Originally Posted by BelichickFan View Post
It's still wrong. The standard definition of a recession is negative GDP growth for two consecutive quarters. Which we haven't had.

The numbers here (sorry it's a Taiwan website, it was the first I found with the numbers) :

http://investintaiwan.nat.gov.tw/en/...dp_growth.html

Show that our GDP growth is slowing, no-one has disputed that, but slowing growth isn't enough for a recession. Maybe 4th quarter 2007/1st quarter 2008 will meet the definition, maybe it won't. But we certainly haven't been in one since 2001 and that's fact not opinion - unless you choose your own definition of Recession.
I use the real wages definition ... the money Americans have to spend in stores and everywhere. Real wages are down since 1999. I own my own business and I know many who do ... everyone who does is feeling it.

All companies big and small have been scratching to lower their expenditures ... many workers now doing the job of 2 and 3 people...many Americans working 2 and 3 jobs. Eventually that cycle reaches an apex where there's nothing left to cut/save ... getting a 4th job is impossible and the recession will come hard and fast.

The reason as above .. we are producing less and less. I am going to post a great article on this that I just found. It's a good article because it is current and reflects the views of our candidates.
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Old 01-08-2008, 10:22 PM   #52
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Default Re: The US has entered its first economic recession in 16 years

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I use the real wages definition ... the money Americans have to spend in stores and everywhere. Real wages are down since 1999. I own my own business and I know many who do ... everyone who does is feeling it.
It's not true. Not according to the numbers I can find anyway. The easiest to view graph I found was the second from the top here :

http://www.epi.org/content.cfm/webfe...shots_20060111

It shows from 2000-2005 (no more up to date than that) :

Low 20% incomes had real hourly wage drop of .2%.
Median (50%) incomes had real hourly wage increase of .7%
High (95%) incomes had real hourly wage increase of 2.2%.

Now, I'll concede that the latter two years of the graph also have the median down .7%.

Moving on from the numbers, it's nice that you use your own definition but virtually everyone defines a recession at the macro level not the micro (individual) level that you are using. If you want to say things suck for people, great. But it's misleading to say "recession" when your definition, while I don't doubt you can find it somewhere, is unusual at best.
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Old 01-08-2008, 10:32 PM   #53
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Default Re: The US has entered its first economic recession in 16 years

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Originally Posted by BelichickFan View Post
It's still wrong. The standard definition of a recession is negative GDP growth for two consecutive quarters. Which we haven't had.

The numbers here (sorry it's a Taiwan website, it was the first I found with the numbers) :

http://investintaiwan.nat.gov.tw/en/...dp_growth.html
Based on that table the US is barely better than France or Japan's economy, but the US economy is barely growing while the population is growing at a faster pace.

Also, I think there are other measures like our various trade and federal deficits and the super weak US dollar, that tell the rest of the story. By the time GDP growth becomes negative, BF, it will be totally obvious already.
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Old 01-08-2008, 10:37 PM   #54
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Default Re: The US has entered its first economic recession in 16 years

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Moving on from the numbers, it's nice that you use your own definition but virtually everyone defines a recession at the macro level not the micro (individual) level that you are using. If you want to say things suck for people, great. But it's misleading to say "recession" when your definition, while I don't doubt you can find it somewhere, is unusual at best.
It's like sometimes it's hard to fathom beyond what you can see.

I live in Rhode Island ... economy here sucks.
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Old 01-08-2008, 10:41 PM   #55
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Default Re: The US has entered its first economic recession in 16 years

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Based on that table the US is barely better than France or Japan's economy, but the US economy is barely growing while the population is growing at a faster pace.
I have said several times that we have clearly slowed down but the discussion here is over "The US has entered its first economic recession" and there is simply no evidence to suggest that right now. Evidence may appear by the middle of the year that we're currently in a recession - or it might now - but right now the subject is misleading at best and a flat out lie at worst.
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Old 01-08-2008, 10:43 PM   #56
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Default Re: The US has entered its first economic recession in 16 years

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Originally Posted by F.B.N. View Post
It's like sometimes it's hard to fathom beyond what you can see.

I live in Rhode Island ... economy here sucks.
The economy is like real estate - it depends on the area. And I think it's safe to say that overall things aren't going too well right now. But that still doesn't make it a national 6 year recession
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Old 01-08-2008, 11:52 PM   #57
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Default Re: The US has entered its first economic recession in 16 years

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It's like sometimes it's hard to fathom beyond what you can see.

I live in Rhode Island ... economy here sucks.

RI has been stagnant for a long time due to the libs running the state and their handouts to the civil servant community among the highest in the country. Why do you think the Red states are growing?
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