PatriotsReign

Let me start off by stating that same-store sales mean a LOT if you're interested in buying a retailer's stock. But if one wants to gauge Consumer Spending, it means very, very little.

Having said that, here's a bit from CNN Money.....

Holiday's winners and losers

"NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- As the curtain lifts on 2011, the nation's retailers are celebrating one of the most robust holiday sales periods that they've had in years.

"The headline on the holidays is that it will be the best year for retailers in at least five years and possibly in more than a decade," said Craig Johnson, president of retail consulting group Customer Growth Partners.

On Thursday, we'll hear directly from merchants just how well consumers treated them in the crucial December sales race, when sellers report their same-store sales for the month. Same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year, are a key measure of a retailer's performance"

Holiday 2010's retail winners and losers - Jan. 5, 2011

"The Best in 5 years?!!!" Really? Well, yes if you're using same-store sales metrics. But how many stores have closed over the past 5 years? The answer is THOUSANDS OF STORES HAVE CLOSED during this same period!

If you read through the article, it actually lies by telling the reader;

"This is a big deal for both retailers and the economy. For retailers, year-end holiday sales can account for as much as 50% of their sales and profits for the full year.

Since consumer spending also fuels more than two-thirds of the economy, the hope is that a pick-up in spending means that Americans are feeling more secure about their jobs and spending ability."

Finally, the only way to measure consumer spending to look at total revenues. If Macy's same-store sales grew 5% while they closed 10% of their stores, their total revenue is certainly NOT up 5%. As a matter of fact, it may even be down...but they don't want the public to know that.

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"No one walking this earth knows what is truly righteous"

Mrs.PatsFanInVa

And honestly, PR, the public, by and large, doesn't care.

How long have they been gauging the economy using "same store sales?" If it's a recent method of accounting then it might make a difference - but if they've been doing it since before the recession it doesn't make a damn bit of difference.

Up is still up and down is srill down so long as your base line method of accounting remains the same.

Since you mentioned Macy's previously as a company which has lost money based on "same store sales," I'll bring this up as something people pay much more attention to:

Macy's to Create 3,500 Jobs Within Two Years

[I] Macy's announced it will be creating 3,500 jobs in the next two years, and that 725 of them will be for its online division, reports USA Today. Those opportunities will come in the form of full-time, part-time, and seasonal jobs.

Macy's online sales surged 29 percent during the first 10 months of fiscal year 2010. Their online division already has 420 workers based in their New York City office, and the plans are to add another 260. In addition, the San Francisco office of their online division already has some 300 workers, and the retailer will be beefing that up with another 300.[/]

Macy's to Create 3,500 Jobs Within Two Years

PatriotsReign

You have to look at the totality of the situation MrsP. Macy's will "create" 3,500 jobs, but how many will they be eliminating in the future and how many have they eliminated in the past 2-3 years?

From today's Boston Globe

Macy's to close Chestnut Hill store

"Macy’s said today that it is closing its store in the Chestnut Hill Shopping Center as part of an annual review process by the retailer. A final clearance sale at the store, which begins on Sunday, will run for about 10 weeks.

Macy's said today that about 140 associates work at the Chestnut Hill location. Associates who are displaced by the store closing may be offered positions in nearby Macy’s stores where possible, the retailer said. Regular full-time and part-time associates who are laid off due to the store closing will be provided severance benefits."

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"No one walking this earth knows what is truly righteous"

Titus Pullo

I hate to do this, but I have to agree with PR on this one.

There is no recovery. We haven't even gotten to the full-bore part of the commercial real estate crash, which is coming.

Circuit City built a store in my town that never opened, and is still sitting there empty 2 yrs later. That tells me they don't even know what happening with the health of their company until it's too late.

See those empty strip malls sprinkled all around your town? You'll be seeing a whole lot more of them in the coming 2-3 years.

PatriotsReign

Not that we're actually "taking sides" but offering our opinion on perception vs. reality. Understandably, our gov't and most of our media prefers to share only the "good news" regarding our economic condition.

If we were discussing torture or some other moral issue, I may very well only want to read "the good stuff". But my economic views on our present state have nothing to do with partisan politics.

You're right about commercial real estate...and if you really want to get depressed, take a look at the pending home real estate collapses that are about to happen in Canada, Australia and China. All of this will affect the global economy on a huge scale. The US was first, followed by Europe. But the wierdest thing is that a lot of people don't even know that Australia's & Canada's economies have not been in recession. As a matter of fact, they have been prospering quite nicely. But they are about to crash (along with the possibility of China joining them).

My hat is off to you Titus. Even if I agreed with you, I'm not sure I would have admitted it. I'll have to keep that in mind moving forward.

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"No one walking this earth knows what is truly righteous"

Mrs.PatsFanInVa

Doesn't "recovery" mean regaining what was previously lost?

Real World

I'm in commercial real estate. Prepare yourself. We've now had the same empty space for over 2 years, in what is normally one of the most desired commercial industrial markets surrounding Boston. We're not the only one's either.

Anyone who lives on the north shore of Boston and drive up and down Route 1 there, should take notice of the Circuit City that's been empty there for those same 2 years Titus is talking about. To not be able to fill that space, that sits directly on the highway, is alamrming to me. It tells us all we need to know right now.

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"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him."
Leo Tolstoy, 1897

Real World

I saw a bit on Australia's housing market, and how it's become one of the more over priced in the world.

Why wouldn't you admit it? The only thing that matters in here is what's right, and what's wrong. Who says it is irrelevent. There shouldn't be any enemies in here, or any sides being picked.

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"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him."
Leo Tolstoy, 1897