PatriotsReign

Never had a drink with Warren Buffet Strudel....are you saying his opinion means nothing?

"We’re still in a recession," Buffett told CNBC television in an interview broadcast on Thursday. "We’re not gonna be out of it for a while, but we will get out of it." - Warren Buffet

Warren Buffett: “We’re still in a recession.” Technical recoveries don’t count. | Credit Writedowns

apple strudel

I'm saying that you're arguing a generally accepted definition. An honest broker would normally phrase such a position as "The accepted definition of X is Y, but I think one could extend that to include Z, and here is why." But you've done nothing of the sort, you just tried to convince people that something is something else, and kept saying the same thing over and over. If you had done the reasonable thing, then there wouldn't have been too much disagreement since most reasonable people look at stagnation and say that it's not a great thing, and that it's better to start growing again or "recovering" more quickly. I think that somewhere in your head that's what you're trying to get out, but you're not doing a very good job of it.

PatriotsReign

I understand your point and I can see why you've taken the position you have Strudel. But perhaps you don't understand why I've taken my POV.

Take a look at the graph below showing GDP during the great depression. As we all know, the Great Depression lasted 12 years. But GDP INCREASED for many of those years.

Can you tell me why periods of increasing GDP were still considered part of the GD?

http://www.housingbubblebust.com/GDP/Depression.html

Attached Images

 

Real World

Excellent point PR.

BTW, does that mean that you can be in a 12 year Depression, but not be in a recession, during those 12 years of Depression? In other words, can you have a collapsed lung, and then not have a collapsed lung....nevermind.

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"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him."
Leo Tolstoy, 1897

chicowalker

Interesting question, PR.

I did a quick scan at wikipedia, and as I suggested regarding terminology of recovery, it may be because there is no "official" criteria for a depression, unlike the NBER's criteria for a recession.

I think RW was right much earlier in the thread (or maybe it was strudel? Don't often mix their posts up ) in saying something along the lines that it may technically be over (for now?) but that doesn't mean things are much better.

Real World

That was me!

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"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him."
Leo Tolstoy, 1897

wistahpatsfan

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apple strudel

Ah, you finally get to the point. Took you long enough. So the Great Depression, as we all know, is characterized by two recessions and significant long term unemployment resulting in an economy that was operating well under capacity. I think a depression is something like sustained unemployment over 15%. So while GDP increased, not enough of that money went into people's hands via job creation to effect significant recovery. This is, of course, why the current primary focus is on job creation, and I think everybody, even ivory tower liberals, would agree that creating jobs is the most important thing for us to have a healthy economy again. A jobless recovery would be disastrous, politically and economically.

And this, of course, is why people don't feel like the recession is over. But feelings only count for so much. Technically the recession is over and it's a plain fact. It's a good thing, because it's the first step towards effecting a recovery. But the people who feel like the economy is not strong, especially with respect to jobs, are also correct. It's not a strong job market out there right now, although MA is doing OK.

But it's really weird, PR. You could have said that in a 1 or 2 line post and most everybody would have agreed. Instead you staged an elaborate production.

apple strudel

And you're right. It's over, but we're still hovering near the bottom of the drop. There has not been solid jobs creation, and there has not been significant growth. Fortunately there have been some positive signs recently, but anybody who thought that we would have a fast recovery were on crack. We're lucky it wasn't worse.

PatriotsReign

I also don't believe there is a standard definition of a depression. Also, keep in mind that our current unemployment rate is over 15% if measured using the same methodology we used back then.

I didn't plan any elaborate discussion. I thought I could get my point across more easily. I tried basic examples, then a chart and finally, a chart showing the GD. I wouldn't call that elaborate and definately not something I planned.

Furthermore, I agree with the following assessment of current economic conditions;

"Here were are with unemployment close to 10% (and I believe new all time highs are coming). Here we are with treasury yields in the gutter and with mortgage rates at all time lows, yet home sales are at record lows. To top it off, and in spite of trillions of dollars of Keynesian stimulus from Congress, on top of trillions of quantitative easing from the Fed, and GDP is likely to go negative this quarter or next!"