Real World

We're so far away it's ridiculous, but never the less, this is a political forum, and I love numbers. Here are some poll numbers to think about:

Kalifornia:

New SurveyUSA poll out on the horse race in California showing Fred Thompson surging into a second place tie with John McCain, only 7 points behind Giuliani:

Republicans
Giuliani 28 (-6 vs. last poll May 4-6)
F. Thompson 21 (+10)
McCain 21 (nc)
Romney 11 (-1)
Gingrich 8 (-1)
Undecided 3 (-2)

Very little movement on the Democratic side in the last month according to SUSA:

Democrats
Clinton 46 (-2 vs. last poll May 4-6)
Obama 28 (+1)
Edwards 14 (-1)
Undecided 4 (+1)


June 5, 2007

USA Today/Gallup: Obama Leads Clinton

Posted by TOM BEVAN

USA Today/Gallup is out with a new national poll showing Barack Obama edging ahead of Hillary Clinton. The new poll represents a net ten-point swing in Obama's favor over the last three weeks:

Democrats
Obama 30 (+4 vs. last poll May 10-13)
Clinton 29 (-6)
Gore (+1)
Edwards (-1)
Richardson 3 (+1)
Biden 3 (+1)

This is only the second poll to date that has shown Obama in the lead - Scott Rasmussen had Obama moving into a 2-point lead over Clinton in a survey back in late April, but he fell back to an 8-point deficit the following week and has trailed her ever since. Clinton's lead in the new RCP National Average dipped to +8.8%.

On the Republican side, Giuliani bounced back a bit and Romney moved up, while McCain slid and Fred Thompson remained static:

Republicans
Giuliani 32 (+3 vs. last poll May 10-13)
McCain 19 (-4)
Romney 12 (+4)
F. Thompson 11 (-1)
Gingrich (+2)
Huckabee 2 (+1)
Tancredo 2 (+1)
Brownback 1 (-1)
Paul 1
Hunter 1

Giuliani leads by 11.6% in the updated RCP National Average.



June 5, 2007

New Rasmussen: Thompson 2nd

Posted by JUSTIN MILLER
Rasmussen released his GOP numbers today and Fred Thompson has vaulted to second place.

Giuliani 23
Thompson 17
Romney 15
McCain 14
Gingrich 9

Giuliani leads McCain by +11.4% in the RCP Average while Thompson is third with 11.6%, less than one point ahead of Romney.


New Hampshire Poll: Clinton Way Ahead

Posted by JUSTIN MILLER
A new Franklin Pierce/WBZ poll in New Hampshire taken yesterday after the debate shows Hillary Clinton extending her lead:

Democrats
Clinton 38 (+6 vs. last poll March 13)
Obama 16 (-9)
Edwards 13 (-3)
Gore 8 (-2)
Richardson 8 (+5)
Undecided 10 (+1)

Clinton holds a 14.7-point lead in the RCP Average for New Hampshire.



IOWA Polls:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...a-primary.html

South Carolina Polls:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...a-primary.html

Florida Polls:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...a-primary.html

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"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him."
Leo Tolstoy, 1897

BelichickFan

I realize the lure of Thompson may disappear the moment he opens his mouth but I think it's his to lose as he's the only one who, IMO, doesn't have a significant turn off to the Republican base.

My gut says Obama fades and Hillary and Edwards end up fighting to see who can be the most left and that Edwards eventually wins that.

Thompson vs. Edwards, now there's a generic sounding race

Patriot_in_NY

I agree about Thompson, but I think Edwards is unelectable.

He gonna fall with all the style and grace of a meteor. Then again, falling from 11-14 range isn't really all that long a trip.

Patters

I think Thompson will have a hard time getting the nomination if this article has some truth to it:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19049846/

But, besides that, he also faces the difficult problem that most of the best campaign talent (organizers, fundraisers, etc.) in the Republican Party is already committed to the other candidates. In primaries, that's very important because the abiity to generate turnout is more important than anything that the polls show.

The other thing, I think, is that Thompson will not seem fresh for long. Not only is he quite old, he positioning himself as a Reaganesque candidate, and I think that kind of approach is risky for it will make him look second rate.

As far as Democrats go, I don't think Edwards has a good shot, and I see it as between Hillary and Obama. Right now, it's very much a tossup. Either of them can beat any Republican in the next election if the political climate remains roughly like it is today.

BelichickFan

Of course the Liberal media chooses to call him lazy - others would call it working normal hours and letting his people do their jobs. Reagan was said to be "lazy", Carter was one of the hardest working Presidents . . . how did that work out ?

Patters

The rumors that he's lazy came from Republican staffers, but they may very well be staffers for McCain and others in the race, I don't know. At any rate, if what the article says is true, with his idea for an unconventional campaign, it's clear to me that he won't win. Primaries are about reaching individuals, not reaching the public at large. Reagan was not lazy on the campaign trail. He was a very effective and active campaigner, as was Bush II.

Perhaps your taking these accusations so hard is because the Republicans are such a sorry bunch that Fred Thompson actually looks pretty good?

BelichickFan

I assume you meant "will beat", not "can beat" ??? The Marsian (Kucinich) CAN win, as can any Republican.

As I've said before, the Dems do have the star power candidates but I'm not sure any of them are overpowering general election candidates. If they win it's likely anti-Republican more than pro-Democrat but I think the desire for a split government and the public's realization that the Republican nominee in NOT BUSH will eek it out for the good guys.

BelichickFan

I like Thompson, from what I know of him anyway, and I like Romney. I would be fully satisifed with either one. I know RW hates Romney but I'm not sure he's ever given a "Real World" example of why I should feel the same way.

FWIW, I consider Obama, Hillary and Edwards to be a sorry bunch too

Patriot_in_NY

I'm still waiting for a candidate {on any side} I could stomach.

Patters

I'm impressed you were able to deduce what I was talking about.

Hillary might be. She has a very large base, which makes it easier to build coalitions and get new voters.

I think Republicans often delude themselves into thinking that Americans don't like Democratic ideas, but as I've said before the general direction of our country has been towards liberalism and Democratic goals. I think it's far easier to make a list of major Democratic legislative victories than Republican ones, and I think that reflects the nature of our country. Americans like Republicans as a breather after the Democrats get things done.