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Factor in whatever you want: election fraud, Republican turnout machine, early November surprises, etc. How many seats do you think the Dems will take (or lose) in the House and the Senate?
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I think the Dems will pick up 10 House seats and 4 Senate seats, meaning that they'll control neither house. I think that because I think the Republicans are so corrupt, they have to avoid investigations at all costs.
I also predict exit polls will show that Dems did better than the actual results.
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Factor in whatever you want: election fraud, Republican turnout machine, early November surprises, etc. How many seats do you think the Dems will take (or lose) in the House and the Senate?
***
I think the Dems will pick up 10 House seats and 4 Senate seats, meaning that they'll control neither house. I think that because I think the Republicans are so corrupt, they have to avoid investigations at all costs.
I also predict exit polls will show that Dems did better than the actual results.
I think generically speaking the Dems hold a large lead. The problem with generic polls is that the elections aren't generic, they're specific. When you look at the specifics of each race, you see a tighter picture. The Dems do still maintain an edge though, and I think that the edge will hold. My prediction is Dem control of the house, and a slim lead, maybe even the Cheney tie breaker, for the GOP in the senate. IMO I wouldn't be surprised if the Dems take both. The GOP has done such an aweful job, and has received such negative press (not surprising) that the Dems should easily take control. The problem of course is that the Dems are inept & offer nothing of substance which explains the unfavorability figures of both parties.
In a nutshell, its going to be interesting. I give an advantage to the Dems. I say Dem house, GOP senate (split with Cheney tiebreaker).
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"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him." Leo Tolstoy, 1897
It'll likely be the Repubs again. Again-the Dems haven't come up with any kind of a message. Yeah-Iraq(among other things) have gotten from bad to worse-but it's been the same story for the last 10 years.
And there are key states where Repubs are favored(i.e. the Maryland and Michael Steele).
Polls have been oversampling dems, no message, better GOP turnoout due to GOP get out the vote infrastructure.
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"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."
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"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."
I'm not going to spend forever pointing out that Dems end up over-represented in polls because they answer their phones. I'm also not going to waste my time mentioning just how easy it is to correct for that if you have just a teensey bit of math comprehension. No I'm not going to mention any of that stuff because its all off topic.
I'm just going to predict that somebody will need to go up to Maine next Tuesday night and pull Harry Boy's head out of the oven. I've got Darts to play, so I can't make it. Is anyone free?
jack and jill went up the hill, each with a buck and a quarter....:banned:
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To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
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"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him." Leo Tolstoy, 1897