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Political director of ABC News and coauthor of The Way to Win: Taking the White House in 2008.
Forget partisan warfare matching that of 1993–2006. President Bush and Speaker Pelosi (and/or Majority Leader Reid) would recognize the need to work together or face two years of stalemate. Watch for an immigration deal, a bipartisan “peace with honor” Rose Garden announcement on Iraq, and a joint 41/42 (Bush/Clinton) presidential diplomatic mission to the Middle East.
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Tom Daschle
Former Senate majority leader
Because of America’s ideology-driven foreign policy, our entreaties go unheard and redlines ignored. Adversaries like North Korea and Iran see us overstretched in Iraq, alienated from allies, and losing focus in Afghanistan. A new congress will ensure a return to results—and away from ideology—in U.S. foreign policy. Democrats will change course in Iraq, strengthen our tools in the war on terrorism, and reinvigorate our military and moral power.
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Marc Ambinder
Associate editor at the National Journal’s Hotline
If Democrats regain control of the House, freshmen Democrats who are military veterans—maybe retired Adm. Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania and Tammy Duckworth in Illinois—will become policy generators for their party. Don’t expect McGovernites. Expect, instead, calls for a larger army, more special forces, more accountability in contracting, and a reordering of the relationship between the National Guard and the military. In the Senate, there may be a majority that views free trade agreements with decided skepticism. On North Korea, Democrats won’t abandon the six party talks, but it’s easy to see them pressuring the Bush administration about China’s role (with the crosswinds of trade and currency disputes) and even about Russia. Until the Democrats have a presidential nominee, they will speak with many voices. But they won’t lack for ideas.
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Stephen M. Walt
Professor of international relations at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government
Congress has little direct influence over foreign policy, and any Democratic margin will be small. Would a Democratic congress cut off funding for the Iraq war? No. Oppose NATO expansion, green-light a new trade deal, or rethink U.S. commitments in the Middle East? Of course not. Will replacing Richard Lugar with Joe Biden and Henry Hyde with Tom Lantos as chairs of key congressional committees leave us in better hands? Hardly. And let’s not forget that the Patriot Act was renewed 89-10 in the Senate, and Bush’s torture legislation passed 253-168 in the House. So don’t expect a new foreign policy until 2009 (and probably not even then). At best, a Democratic congress will exercise its oversight role and fully investigate Bush’s blunders, so that we can learn from his mistakes. That will be a full-time job in itself
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Norman Ornstein
Resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute
Foreign policy will not undergo a seismic shift if the Democrats take one or both houses of congress. Two things will change: There will be lots of investigations, on Iraq, torture, intelligence failures, and so on; and there will be more congressional pushback on the unprecedented expansion of executive power—but in both of these areas, expect the president and vice president to push back even harder, leading to constitutional confrontations, tension, acrimony, and lots of vetoes.
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Dan Gilgoff
Senior editor at U.S. News and World Report
Bad news from Iraq has created the opening for a Democratic House takeover, but the Democratic candidates who could make that happen are running in traditionally Republican districts in red states such as Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky. They’re mostly ambivalent about the Iraq war. They criticize Bush’s performance but oppose their own party’s call for a timetable for withdrawal. Far from foreign-policy revolutionaries, they’d need to burnish their national security credentials if elected, which could mean taking Bush-like stands on Iran and North Korea, and perhaps a moderate line on Iraq. After all, they’d be facing reelection in their conservative districts in the not-too-distant future.
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Jeff Birnbaum
Washington Post columnist and contributor to Fox News
If Democrats take control of the House, the Senate, or both, expect oversight and investigative hearings—and not very friendly ones from President Bush’s standpoint—to pop up on issues ranging from Darfur to North Korea. Democrats will also push, with the help of some Republicans, to begin to remove our troops from Iraq, and it may happen. Partisan change would also signal public discontent with our policies there. Also, say goodbye to Don Rumsfeld.
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Lawrence Korb
Senior fellow at the Center for American Progress
The most significant impact of the Democrats taking control of congress would be on the war in Iraq and arms control. The Democrats would require the administration to put forward a strategy for Iraq that has reasonable benchmarks, estimated costs and timeframes, as well as an action plan for completing the mission. The Senate would also take up the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, as well as prohibit the weaponization of space and the development of new nuclear weapons.
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Danielle Pletka
Vice president for foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute
Democratic control of one or both congressional chambers would mean little change in the reality of foreign policy. The party is unlikely to have sufficient control to drive through controversial ideas. Members would be further constrained by a Republican Executive that already holds much of the necessary authority to conduct foreign policy. But reality is not everything. If the Osama bin Ladens, Mahmoud Ahmadinejads, and Kim Jong Ils of this world already believe Washington is weak and divided, they will only be encouraged by a Chairman Murtha, who believes America is “more dangerous to world peace than Iran or North Korea,” an empowered Senator Kerry, who longs for an end to the focus on terror, and a Speaker Pelosi, who believes an immediate withdrawal from Iraq is the wisest course.
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Thomas Mann
Senior follow at the Brookings Institution
A Democratic majority in both House and Senate, which now seems likely, would lead to much greater engagement by congress on a range of foreign-policy issues. Initially, this will take the form of hearings on Bush administration policies in Iraq, Iran, North Korea, and the Middle East, and on the state of U.S. military forces, featuring current and former Republican political appointees and military officers and conducted with the cooperation of concerned Republican members. I don’t expect abrupt changes in policy or personnel forced by a Democratic congress but rather an open, deliberative process that may well persuade the president to change course.
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Pelosi's on the record saying that an impeachment ain't gonna happen on her watch(should her watch come to pass of course) So I think Bush is pretty safe from a firing squad.
Pelosi's on the record saying that an impeachment ain't gonna happen on her watch(should her watch come to pass of course) So I think Bush is pretty safe from a firing squad.
Excellent post F.B.N. Did you compile these yourself or find them altogether somewhere?
I largely agree with Birnbaum. If the Dems win control (which I think is unlikely for a number of reasons), they are not going to have the power to effect real change because they have some conservatives in their own ranks. The one thing they will be able to do is weaken the Bush admin. and Republicans by exposing corruption and lies. That may not make the Dems look good, but it will make the Repugs look worse and hopefully lead to a stronger Democratic majority in 2008. That said, I also agree with Mark Halperin's comment that they'll work with the Bush administration on such issues as immigration and Middle East peace (particularly Israel/Palestine).
Excellent post F.B.N. Did you compile these yourself or find them altogether somewhere?
I largely agree with Birnbaum. If the Dems win control (which I think is unlikely for a number of reasons), they are not going to have the power to effect real change because they have some conservatives in their own ranks. The one thing they will be able to do is weaken the Bush admin. and Republicans by exposing corruption and lies. That may not make the Dems look good, but it will make the Repugs look worse and hopefully lead to a stronger Democratic majority in 2008. That said, I also agree with Mark Halperin's comment that they'll work with the Bush administration on such issues as immigration and Middle East peace (particularly Israel/Palestine).
Scary as this sounds I hope they do win control of one house to check W. As a life long republican I think the worst thing that W has done over the his tenure, other than connect dots in Iraq that didn't exist, is not adapt and change as needed the strategy to win Iraq as quickly and efficiently as possible. His staunch refusal to fire Rumsfeld and change policy/strategies has completely screwed up any chance of victory there for Americans or Iraqis.
The Bomb in the Backyard
Osama bin Laden has not yet succeeded in launching a nuclear attack. But it isn’t because he can’t. With enriched uranium, a handful of military supplies available on the Internet, and a small team of terrorists, he could assemble a nuclear bomb in a matter of months. This is how it will happen. By Peter D. Zimmerman, Jeffrey G. Lewis
The List: The Ivy League of the Developing World
For years, the smartest and most ambitious students in poor countries had to venture abroad for a world-class education. But as their countries play catch up, several schools have quietly snuck up on the world’s most prestigious universities. In this week’s List, FP takes at look at some of the developing-country institutions that are producing talent to compete with the best of the West.
They All Fall Down
The first step for the countries confronting North Korea is to recognize that their diplomatic strategies haven’t worked. By Graham Allison
What Happens If the Democrats Win
With just days before the U.S. Congressional elections, Washington is consumed with predictions that the Republicans are on their way out of power. What would a Democratic majority actually mean for U.S. foreign policy? FP asked Washington insiders, ex-politicians, and pundits to look beyond November 7.
The Bomb in the Backyard
Osama bin Laden has not yet succeeded in launching a nuclear attack. But it isn’t because he can’t. With enriched uranium, a handful of military supplies available on the Internet, and a small team of terrorists, he could assemble a nuclear bomb in a matter of months. This is how it will happen. By Peter D. Zimmerman, Jeffrey G. Lewis
The List: The Ivy League of the Developing World
For years, the smartest and most ambitious students in poor countries had to venture abroad for a world-class education. But as their countries play catch up, several schools have quietly snuck up on the world’s most prestigious universities. In this week’s List, FP takes at look at some of the developing-country institutions that are producing talent to compete with the best of the West.
They All Fall Down
The first step for the countries confronting North Korea is to recognize that their diplomatic strategies haven’t worked. By Graham Allison
Muslim Terrorists will resume their 'flying lessons' down in Florida
Howard Dean will have sex with Auntie Pelosi
Uncle Teddy will drive his Mother's Rosemobile through a Cape Cod liquor store window.
Oprah Winfrey will be declared "Queen Of America"
Then we will surrender, Muslims in the middle east will once more dance in the streets.
DEATH TO AMERICA GOD IS GREAT
Harry .... I myself can accuse liberal democrats of many things .... but not caring for the security of their country is not one of them. I am sure our borders will be secure...and maybe even more secure in the south with Mexico than they are now....
No politician will ever again get away with lax security of our country...the media will always be on the lookout for that. In fact I'm hopefull the media will see to it that all war mongers will be exposed as will all traitors who worship the U.N.
Harry .... I myself can accuse liberal democrats of many things .... but not caring for the security of their country is not one of them. I am sure our borders will be secure...and maybe even more secure in the south with Mexico than they are now....
No politician will ever again get away with lax security of our country...the media will always be on the lookout for that. In fact I'm hopefull the media will see to it that all war mongers will be exposed as will all traitors who worship the U.N.
Take your elixer and get some sleep.
I hope your right, everytime I hear someone complaining about wiretapping, the Patriot Act, Homeland Security, torture (Rock & Roll Music), geneva convention for savages, gitmo, dog leash and trashing our own troops for terrorizing in the night (Kerry/Murtha) it's always the the friggin Democrats.
Pelosi who will be third in line for the Presidency voted against everything that would make this country safer. These Fools that make up the democratic party today are not the Democrats of yester-year, can the American people really expect the likes of Pelosi/Kennedy/Dean/Obama/Clinton/Biden etc to actually Fight Al Queda because as sure as God made apples those f-cking animals will be trying to kill Americans for years to come no matter who is running the country.
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Harry Boy (Genius)
In The Absence Of Law And Order Society Will Surely Destroy Itself
What Happens If Democrats Win
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