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Location: In Indy, trying to get Peyton to autograph my Sprint phone.
Which way would Iraq be better?
Although I'm a critic of the Iraq occupation, I am always unsure whether we might not be leaving them better off than with Hussein still in power. Still, the bloodshed seems needless. Then I read this story:
Now, if they do indeed plunge into a civil war, would it be better for Iraqis as a whole or worse than if we had never set foot there? I'm looking beyond the war at the likely division of the state based on ethnic/religious lines (they might not even form democracies). I'm truly stuck on this one. any thoughts?
Mannings never prosper
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The current problem with Iraq is that a lot of the government and more than a third of the people are Shiites who feel they have a close bond with Iran--the very same Iran that actually is developing atomic weapons (unlike Saddam).
The net effect of the war, from the current vantage point, looks like the destruction of Iraq as a national entity and the considerable strengthening of Iran, which sees us as the "Great Satan."
The chances for democracy in Iraq are nowhere near as good as the chances of a theocracy, although it's possible that the Kurds might be able to retain their land.
Unfortunately, this would leave the Sunnis without oil revenues, since the oil in Iraq is largely in either the south or the north, and not in the middle. For the Sunnis, this would be an invitation to civil war, as if they needed one.
Is there anyone who still thinks the Iraq invasion was a good idea?
Why couldn't someone have predicted this in advance and saved us from the error of invading Iraq. Well, someone did. Lots of people did. Everyone who wasn't drinking the White House kool-aid could see the likely result of a war in Iraq.
The link didn't work, so I could read the article you posted.
That said, we've pretty much put Iran on the road of becoming a major power by taking out they're major regional enemy (Saddam Hussein) and helping to install a Shiite-friendly government there. What will most likely happen if Iraq splits up is that the Kurds will be worse off than ever, and the Sunnis will form a poor state that does not have extensive oil holdings. As Iran gains power, it will seek to destabilize the region in an effort to kick the west out, something that most Arabs would like to see happen. In this way, along with its threats against Israel, it will build a popular movement that could threaten its biggest enemies, such as Saudi Arabia and even Egypt.
The right-wing's foreign policy has made Iran stronger and more dangerous than it has been for many years, but that's a problem we'll have to live with. It's even worse for us if Iraq splits up, since then it will be easier for Iran to build an alliance with the Shiites. In terms of the Iraqis, all the solutions are bad, but American presence is the one inciting the worst violence. With the United States out (in an organized way), maybe our future leaders can find a way to undo the damage we have caused. Of course, there's no way to undo the loss of life.