For those who think the Economy has "Turned-around" - New England Patriots Forums

PatriotsReign · 05-04-2010, 11:41 AM

City of Fresno Declares Fiscal Emergency

"FRESNO, Calif. (KFSN) -- The city of Fresno is facing a $30.6 million budget shortfall and the mayor announced she wants to cut hundreds of city jobs.

The proposed $213.2 million general fund budget takes into account a 4.5 percent expected decline in resources from fiscal year 2010. The fiscal year 2011 proposed budget is 13.2 percent lower than the actual fiscal year 2008 general fund budget."

City of Fresno Declares Fiscal Emergency - 5/03/10 - Fresno News - abc30.com

What does THIS story have to do with the US economy? A LOT! This scene will play out in many, many more cities and regions across the country. Yes, California is one of the worst cases, but several other localities are in a similar situation.

If you read between the lines, you'll notice tax revenues available in 2010 are 13% LESS than 2008. Now all that means is business is worse than it was in 2008 since tax revenues reflect the overall health of the economy.

BTW....I won't discuss the house of cards that is ready to fall in Europe even thought the markets show signs of correcting as I write this.

***Harry Boy*** · 05-04-2010, 11:48 AM

It's "The Obama News Media" thats telling us the economy is turning around those Racist Bastards at NBC, CBS , PBS etc etc

***shmessy*** · 05-04-2010, 11:49 AM

Once again, you are relying on trailing economic indicators.

The tax revenues you cite concern that received on 2009 taxes. The economy started growing in the 4th Q of 2009 with a 5.7% GDP rise. This was followed with another rise in 1Q 2010 - - by GDP definition, the recession is over.

Are there bad situations right now? You bet. Unemployment will remain high for years - - due to the tremenedous per worker productivity gains being achieved with technology and, yes, offshoring labor. Small and regional banks continue to go under.

So, yes, the economy has turned upward (doesn't mean it's in great shape, just that it is not as bad as 2009, 2008 and late 2007). The general economy is made up of thousands and thousands of components. If you want to list 200 or 300 that are doing badly right now, you can. That's easy.

On a macro-level, the direction has turned upward. Whether or not that continues is anyone's guess. People who try to predict simply make arses of themselves.

khayos · 05-04-2010, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shmessy

Once again, you are relying on trailing economic indicators.

The tax revenues you cite concern that received on 2009 taxes. The economy started growing in the 4th Q of 2009 with a 5.7% GDP rise. This was followed with another rise in 1Q 2010 - - by GDP definition, the recession is over.

Are there bad situations right now? You bet. Unemployment will remain high for years - - due to the tremenedous per worker productivity gains being achieved with technology and, yes, offshoring labor. Small and regional banks continue to go under.

So, yes, the economy has turned upward (doesn't mean it's in great shape, just that it is not as bad as 2009, 2008 and late 2007). The general economy is made up of thousands and thousands of components. If you want to list 200 or 300 that are doing badly right now, you can. That's easy.

On a macro-level, the direction has turned upward. Whether or not that continues is anyone's guess. People who try to predict simply make arses of themselves.

Uhhh tax revenues typically come in quarterly...

PatriotsReign · 05-04-2010, 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shmessy

Once again, you are relying on trailing economic indicators.

The tax revenues you cite concern that received on 2009 taxes. The economy started growing in the 4th Q of 2009 with a 5.7% GDP rise. This was followed with another rise in 1Q 2010 - - by GDP definition, the recession is over.

Are there bad situations right now? You bet. Unemployment will remain high for years - - due to the tremenedous per worker productivity gains being achieved with technology and, yes, offshoring labor. Small and regional banks continue to go under.

So, yes, the economy has turned upward (doesn't mean it's in great shape, just that it is not as bad as 2009, 2008 and late 2007). The general economy is made up of thousands and thousands of components. If you want to list 200 or 300 that are doing badly right now, you can. That's easy.

On a macro-level, the direction has turned upward. Whether or not that continues is anyone's guess. People who try to predict simply make arses of themselves.

And I'd agree with that!

Seems you have a LASER focus whenever I post something on the economy shmessy!

Where not in recovery at all...we'll find out later that we're in another "Mini-Bubble"...you watch!

What I'm trying to do is BALANCE the news that we hear from mainstream media which tends to focus on the good news and even slants the negative economic news.

I'm a very firm believer in not trying to influence the economy or consumer confidence by slanting the news. Even standard gov't reporting on the economy is slanted and it has been for a long time!

chicowalker · 05-04-2010, 12:31 PM

Never sure what people are referring to as the mainstream media, since everybody reads / watches different things.

I mostly pay attention to the Wall Street Journal for economic news, in addition to what I see and hear every day with clients, lenders, etc., and things seem pretty mixed to me.

Fresno would be expected to be among the worse, imo -- that whole region of California rode a boom when the housing market was going well, so they're now getting their asses handed to them.

PatriotsReign · 05-04-2010, 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chicowalker

Never sure what people are referring to as the mainstream media, since everybody reads / watches different things.

I mostly pay attention to the Wall Street Journal for economic news, in addition to what I see and hear every day with clients, lenders, etc., and things seem pretty mixed to me.

Fresno would be expected to be among the worse, imo -- that whole region of California rode a boom when the housing market was going well, so they're now getting their asses handed to them.

Yes, what you hear from those you interact with is honest, but not what you see & hear in the news.

Just an example...the unemployment rate does not include discouraged workers who have given up looking or those no longer eligible to collect unemployment. The gov't uses the U3 definition of unemployment which is around 9.7%...but the U6 definition is around 16% unemployment.

As workers fall off the U3 metric, the unemployment rate can appear to be decreasing when in fact it may just be the result of those falling off from being discouraged.

Another is "the median home price" being reported to be up. But all that does is take the median home price of properties that sold in a given area. If 3 houses selling for $2 million each are sold, it drives up the median price even if "same home prices" remain flat.

Good economic news makes the front page and bad news is found in the business section.

chicowalker · 05-04-2010, 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatriotsReign

Yes, what you hear from those you interact with is honest, but not what you see & hear in the news.

Just an example...the unemployment rate does not include discouraged workers who have given up looking or those no longer eligible to collect unemployment. The gov't uses the U3 definition of unemployment which is around 9.7%...but the U6 definition is around 16% unemployment.

As workers fall off the U3 metric, the unemployment rate can appear to be decreasing when in fact it may just be the result of those falling off from being discouraged.

Another is "the median home price" being reported to be up. But all that does is take the median home price of properties that sold in a given area. If 3 houses selling for $2 million each are sold, it drives up the median price even if "same home prices" remain flat.

Good economic news makes the front page and bad news is found in the business section.

What media are you referring to, though?

Maybe the journal is better than the others (I do think it is), but pretty much everything I read does bring up both sides of these trends and measures, positive or negative.

khayos · 05-04-2010, 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chicowalker

What media are you referring to, though?

Maybe the journal is better than the others (I do think it is), but pretty much everything I read does bring up both sides of these trends and measures, positive or negative.

I think overall, we want to be optimistic in our view of the economy and it probably bends that way a bit in reporting. Who really wants to be pessimistic about it? Some perceive a political gain if the economy doesn't recover under Obama or at least an "I told you so". I firmly believe Obama's economic policies are wrongheaded but we have to root for the economy!

PatriotsReign · 05-04-2010, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by khayos

I think overall, we want to be optimistic in our view of the economy and it probably bends that way a bit in reporting. Who really wants to be pessimistic about it? Some perceive a political gain if the economy doesn't recover under Obama or at least an "I told you so". I firmly believe Obama's economic policies are wrongheaded but we have to root for the economy!

I agree that no one should want the economy to do well or fail to achieve political goals.

And while I want to cheer for the economy to do well, I also don't want it to turn around quickly. I have a very good reason for that desire and my reason is because I want recovery to be based upon a solid foundation and that means we have to allow it to bottom-out first.

That's why I didn't want ANY bailouts of any company. And if it takes 10 years for that to happen, I'm fine with that. I'd prefer we not use gov't funds or policies that create more economic "Bubbles".....I've had it bubble-economics!

Seeing the stock markets climb as far and as fast as they have isn't a good sign. What we've experienced over the last 3 years wasn't a recession, it was (and continues to be) a devasting down-turn from which we need to learn valuable lessons.

For example;

We can't spend more than we make as individuals...it's just idiotic.

Gov't can't spend more than it collects in tax revenues...it's just idiotic.

We can't use gov't policy to inflate the economy when it's trying to deflate

Banks can't lend to unqualified individuals and co.'s

Frugality is a valued quality....and we must SAVE $$

Try to keep in mind that recession/down-turns are GOOD for the economy...they aren't "bad" things to be avoided. They restore balance and confidence to all sectors of the economy and set the foundation for prosperity.