PatsWickedPissah

There are ominous signs that the Earth's weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production -- with serious political implications for just about every nation on Earth. The drop in food output could begin quite soon, perhaps only 10 years from now.
The regions destined to feel its impact are the great wheat-producing lands of Canada and the U.S.S.R. in the North, along with a number of marginally self-sufficient tropical areas -- parts ofIndia,Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indochina and Indonesia -- where the growing season is dependent upon the rains brought by the monsoon.
The evidence in support of these predictions has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it. In England, farmers have seen their growing season decline by about two weeks since 1950, with a resultant overall loss in grain production estimated at up to 100,000 tons annually. During the same time, the average temperature around the equator has risen by a fraction of a degree -- a fraction that in some areas can mean drought and desolation. Last April, in the most devastating outbreak of tornadoes ever recorded, 148 twisters killed more than 300 people and caused half a billion dollars' worth of damage in 13 U.S. states.
To scientists, these seemingly disparate incidents represent the advance signs of fundamental changes in the world's weather. Meteorologists disagree about the cause and extent of the trend, as well as over its specific impact on local weather conditions. But they are almost unanimous in the view that the trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century. If the climatic change is as profound as some of the pessimists fear, the resulting famines could be catastrophic. "A major climatic change would force economic and social adjustments on a worldwide scale," warns a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences, "because the global patterns of food production and population that have evolved are implicitly dependent on the climate of the present century."
A survey completed last year by Dr. Murray Mitchell of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reveals a drop of half a degree in average ground temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere between 1945 and 1968. According to George Kukla of Columbia University, satellite photos indicated a sudden, large increase in Northern Hemisphere snow cover in the winter of 1971-72. And a study released last month by two NOAA scientists notes that the amount of sunshine reaching the ground in the continental U.S. diminished by 1.3% between 1964 and 1972.
To the layman, the relatively small changes in temperature and sunshine can be highly misleading. Reid Bryson of the University of Wisconsin points out that the Earth's average temperature during the great Ice Ages was only about seven degrees lower than during its warmest eras -- and that the present decline has taken the planet about a sixth of the way toward the Ice Age average.
Others regard the cooling as a reversion to the "little ice age" conditions that brought bitter winters to much of Europe and northern America between 1600 and 1900 -- years when the Thames used to freeze so solidly that Londoners roasted oxen on the ice and when iceboats sailed the Hudson River almost as far south as New York City.
Just what causes the onset of major and minor ice ages remains a mystery. "Our knowledge of the mechanisms of climatic change is at least as fragmentary as our data," concedes the National Academy of Sciences report. "Not only are the basic scientific questions largely unanswered, but in many cases we do not yet know enough to pose the key questions."
Meteorologists think that they can forecast the short-term results of the return to the norm of the last century. They begin by noting the slight drop in overall temperature that produces large numbers of pressure centers in the upper atmosphere. These break up the smooth flow of westerly winds over temperate areas. The stagnant air produced in this way causes an increase in extremes of local weather such as droughts, floods, extended dry spells, long freezes, delayed monsoons and even local temperature increases -- all of which have a direct impact on food supplies. "The world's food-producing system," warns Dr. James D. McQuigg of NOAA's Center for Climatic and Environmental Assessment, "is much more sensitive to the weather variable than it was even five years ago." Furthermore, the growth of world population and creation of new national boundaries make it impossible for starving peoples to migrate from their devastated fields, as they did during past famines.
Climatologists are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action to compensate for the climatic change, or even to allay its effects. They concede that some of the more spectacular solutions proposed, such as melting the Arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot or diverting arctic rivers, might create problems far greater than those they solve. But the scientists see few signs that government leaders anywhere are even prepared to take the simple measures of stockpiling food or of introducing the variables of climatic uncertainty into economic projections of future food supplies. The longer the planners delay, the more difficult will they find it to cope with climatic change once the results become grim reality.

"The Cooling World": From Newsweek, April 28, 1975.

Harry Boy

Jesus Christ, no wonder we haven't seen Al Gore for awhile.

Pujo

Interesting article, PWP. Any commentary from you?

BelichickFan

My comment would be that we made it through the '75 - '85 time period just fine. The bottom line is the earth has long periods of climate change and global warming/cooling without man induced causes - are any current changes caused by man ? Maybe and maybe not.

Pujo

You're right, the ice age happened without any human intervention. But if you look around and see how much stuff we are putting into the atmosphere, how many polutants we're putting into our water, etc, it's very hard to come to a conclusion that we're not hurting the environment. It's not like human industry is trivial within the context of our planet.

BelichickFan

I won't disagree with that statement. It is, however, totally uncertain whether we're causing the heating of the planet as the global temperature rises and falls within the current rise on a fairly regular basis. I cannot say we aren't causing a temperature rise but I also can't say we are not.

Clearly, though, human life as it currently stands, "hurts the environment".

PatsWickedPissah

Just that authoritative science CAN be wrong and that extreme govt intervention on the basis of scientific alarmism warrants serious fact-checking.

For the record I believe that global warming is an established fact and it's most likely that humans are exacerbating a climatological trend towards warming. And that our govt has done far too little to wean us from greenhouse gas emissions.

wistahpatsfan

I agree with all the statements on this thread so far. I'm a vehement environmentalist for pragmatic reasons. I'm concerned with greenhouse gas from fossil fuel burning effects on the long term climate and definitely believe the ice caps are melting. There is certainly some correllation between the two but the real ratio of cause and effect is still unknown. The current data should be sufficient to cause intelligent governments to react quickly, but unfortunately that's not what we have in Washington.

More acute effects of fossil fuel burning can be seen now and can be directly attributed to atmospheric pollutants, especially in urban areas here and even more so in Indian, Chinese and other emerging markets. The number of children suffering from elevated levels of heavy metals like mercury, magnesium, and lead are skyrocketing in the last 50 years, and so are the effects. Cases of autism and other more severe neurological disorders are increasing exponentially, as well as less severe illnesses like asthma and bronchitis. As more information comes out about the linkages to pollution, and as the children of world leaders start to see the effects on their own families, maybe then some action will be taken.

All_Around_Brown

Hogwash...go buy a Hummer. Then get yourself an SUV and fill 'er up.

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BlueTalon

If we fail to plug up volcanos, and they in turn erupt and belch out tons of contaminants into the air, is that our fault too?