Patters

Pretty interesting (and depressing) collection of graphs:

Calculated Risk: February Economic Summary in Graphs

PatsFanInVa

Note the light blue bars indicating recessions, in "Employment Measures and Recessions". We're already beyond the length of the '82 recession, widely considered to be the most recent serious downturn.

Note also the correlation in modern times between Republican presidencies and the onset of recessions. It's pretty stark. The only exception was a one-year downturn at the outset of Kennedy's administration.

There is more going on there, of course, than the mismanagement of the economy to the benefit of the wealthy typically at the center of Republican policy, especially since the 1980s. For example, people see a down economy and turn to Democrats, because Dems talk about jobs when you don't have one, and Republicans just tell you the economy is fundamentally sound, and that if you just cut rich peoples' taxes, prosperity will "trickle down." So the Dems have a more appealing message in down economies. However in some instances I think policy drove the recessionary tendency within Republican regimes.

Partisan moment over. The main point here is that we are already in the worst recession in living memory, and we're just getting warmed up, by the looks of things.

To anyone who considers our current economic condition to be the Dem equivalent of the Republican Reign of Fear for the last 8 years, I would say think again. The current downturn is very real, and very serious. We can disagree about ways out, but I don't think we can disagree on the depth of the phenomenon.

Thanks for the graphic data, and may I be phenomenally wrong as to the seriousness of what we're seeing now.

PFnV

PatsFanInVa

PS, price to buy vs. rent is at a level that (I just read, though I can't vouch for the accuracy,) is more in line with a low historic range than the 1.0 range you see in the 90s.

Even if that is not the case, we look headed inexorably to a 1:1 correlation between buying costs and renting costs. We don't know who they are but there are men and women on the sidelines waiting for the bottom. Their waiting of course extends the "bottom search" in real estate.

If the offer of a $7500 tax credit, combined with low interest rates, is not enough to push those buyers off the sidelines, the looming expiration of those measures might (which means waiting a year.)

We may not have answers but at least having the data available allows us to ask the right questions.

PFnV

PatriotsReign

That 1:1 ratio does not exist in Massachusetts or where you live. I pay $1,100/month rent for a 2 bedroom apartment right now. If I bought a $300K house, I'd be paying around $1,800/month with taxes, etc.

But you're probably accurate on average across America. but not for the northeast or mid-atlantic regions.

PatriotsReign

The Unemployment graph is WRONG. Unemployment was at 11% in 82 but a different definition was used at that time than we use now. Back then, the "official" unemployment rate included discouraged workers no longer seeking employment and those who took part-time jobs or became under-employed (bankers who took janitor jobs). If we use the same definition today, the unemployment rate is close to 14%.