PatriotsReign

I'm sure some just JUMPED onto this thread to defend the undefendible Peter Schiff.

Of course Schiff was right about the equities market crash...yup, he's was absolutel on the money. But that's about all he was or will be right about and his clients are paying the price for his many missed calls.

There is a lengthy dissection of all his wrongs at this link if you care to read it in it's entirety;

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Peter Schiff Was Wrong

Here's a brief synopsis;

"Let's Return to Schiff's Investment Thesis.

Schiff's Investment Thesis


US Dollar Will Go To Zero (Hyperinflation).
Decoupling (The rest of the world would be immune to a US slowdown.
Buy foreign equities and commodities and hold them with no exit strategy.


12 Ways Schiff Was Wrong in 2008

Wrong about hyperinflation
Wrong about the dollar
Wrong about commodities except for gold
Wrong about foreign currencies except for the Yen
Wrong about foreign equities
Wrong in timing
Wrong in risk management
Wrong in buy and hold thesis
Wrong on decoupling
Wrong on China
Wrong on US treasuries
Wrong on interest rates, both foreign and domestic

That's a lot of things to be wrong about, especially given all the "Peter Schiff Was Right" videos floating around everywhere. The one thing he was right about was the collapse of US equities and no part of his investment strategy sought to make a gain from that prediction.

Peter Schiff concludes many of his articles, books, etc. with the claim he saw this coming and "positioned his clients accordingly". (he actually screwed them!)

However, let's assume for a moment that hyperinflation is going to happen. Where then could one get the most bangs for their buck to take advantage? The answer to that question is in real estate, where one can buy on 5% down. Nowhere else can one easily get such leverage.

Note that there has never been hyperinflation in history where real property declined in value. Therefore, if Schiff really believes in hyperinflation, he ought to be suggesting that his clients buy houses.

However, Schiff thinks housing prices will continue to crash. So do I. And if they do, you can kiss hyperinflation theories goodbye."

BTW...buying gold still isn't a bad idea.

PatriotsReign

I will also add that I do agree with Schiff and Ron Paul regarding gov't spending. I am against a stimulus (yet I support Obama) and I am ABSOLUTELY against buying up toxic assets in the financial markets. Especially the latter.

shmessy

So (as I've put forth umpteen times) this thread only goes to prove that economic forecasts are worthless.

The "best" economists/market forecasters are wrong only 49% of the time.

Waste O' Time.

__________________
"They (Patriots) may be the greatest team ever" - Chris Mortenson, January 18, 2005 on espn.com

PatriotsReign

The more I post on this topic and follow it, the more discouraged I get. I can definately forecast with higher than 50% accuracy certain aspects of the economy. But when it comes to the far more complicated aspects that involve human decisions, you're right. When you get right down to it, no one can forecast when the economy will turn around or what effect the stimulus will have (if any at all).

The single biggest reason this is true is because no one can predict human behavior. Specifically, we can't predict when confidence will return or what it will look like. I think we can be certain you won't see the majority of people buying up everything on credit for decades no matter how much the economy eventually comes back.

Baby Boomers will now be frugal until they die.

Wildo7

economic forecasts are pretty worhtless, but isn't it a little early to declare that he's wrong? I'm pretty sure this isn't over yet. The fact is he WAS right. I see no reason why he should be held to a different standard than everyone else who will also be wrong and has been wrong from the start. That said, anyone taking his word as the gospel because he was right should probably rethink things.

MrBigglesWorth

so if it happens a year from now or three years from now you will feel vindicated?

I think his entire point has been americans have spent all their money on worthless junk and are bankrupt plus we don't produce anything. so he was wrong on symptoms. big deal

__________________
"There are two categories of superbowl participants that nobody remembers:

The team that lost the game and the team that only won one." Dwight White- Steelers

PatriotsReign

You have to read the article Wildo. He's only been right on one thing, the equities crash. He was TOTALLY WRONG in how he advised his investors....read the link I provided.

It also looks like it will be just about impossible for hyper-inflation to happen as well....read the link, it's actually very interesting.

PatriotsReign

He's just not the guru some (very few) think of him as. Did you read the entire article I provided the link to? If not, there's no sense in even commenting yet.

There are a lot of investors pissed off at him. Did you know that? He claimed he had THE strategy...pretty funny actually.

MrBigglesWorth

this is like you and your recession talk. you ranted for months were in one. the government said no. so it finally happened.

and maybe he didn't count on a historic bailout occurred.

what if the bailout never happened? things would be a lot worst

__________________
"There are two categories of superbowl participants that nobody remembers:

The team that lost the game and the team that only won one." Dwight White- Steelers

MrBigglesWorth

noone could have predicted what occurred. i suppose you think warren buffet is an idiot too

__________________
"There are two categories of superbowl participants that nobody remembers:

The team that lost the game and the team that only won one." Dwight White- Steelers