Quote:
Originally Posted by Real World
How is it impossible?
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First of all, I said "Practically impossible" in that the probability of it is so small that without any real evidence it should be dismissed. The arguments for extra-terrestrial UFOs and Aliens are exactly the same as any other faith-based belief and the vast majority of conspiracy theories: I believe because I want to believe. There isn't a shred of evidence beyond vague grainy hoax videos and dubious anecdotal evidence involving people who are predisposed to believe anything supernatural/mystical whatever you want to call it in places near Airforce bases etc. That is my reason for NOT believing in UFO sightings as Alien visitors. These people simply don't understand the scale of the universe and all of the factors involved. Is there life, even intelligent life out there somewhere? Most likely. But there is barely a chance that they've visited us.
The reason why I say it's PRACTICALLY impossible (as in extremely unlikely) is because that's exactly what the overwhelming majority of astrophysicists and mathematicians say. I strongly suggest that you read Stephen Hawking or Neil DeGrasse Tyson or any of the other people for a better explanation of this but I'll do my best to give a few reasons as to why the probability of it is amazingly small:
It took 4.5 billion years for earth to evolve human intelligence, with the first prokaryotes forming about 3.8 billion years ago. It took another 2 billion years for the first multicellular organisms to form during which time any number of things could have extinguished life. The improbability of abiogenesis alone has been shown in the lab to be incredibly small so already we know that even given the perfect conditions for life, the likelihood that molecules form amino acids and those amino acids form prokaryotic cells is very unlikely.
Setting aside the subsequent roadblocks to intelligent life, we can now replicate these odds over the number of likely planets that could support life and get a good understanding of how many planets it would take before this occured (the number is very small). Then you take into account the stability of the planet to maintain these precarious conditions long enough for intelligent life to form (sun burning out etc.). Earth, for example, has enjoyed a relatively long period of stability we have yet to observe in any other planet, and which is very unlikely. So far we know of only a handful of planets that COULD theoretically support life (specifically an estimated 5% of the planets in the Milky Way Galaxy), none of which are likely to develop intelligent life, and the distance of these planets alone is large enough to defy Light Year parameters, which there is absolutely no evidence in either Quantum Physics or astrophysics that suggests anything, let alone an intelligent life form and it's material aircraft could defy.
The astronomer and astrophysicist Frank Drake developed an equation that takes into account the this likelihood and then applies other factors to illustrate the enormity of this leap in faith. Keep in mind that this is the equation developed for SETI and is in relation to the improbability of getting any kind of verifiable intelligent signal, of which there has yet to be:
The Drake equation states that:
N = R^y X fp X ne X f{\ell} X fi X fc X L
N is the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible;
R* is the average rate of star formation in our galaxy
fp is the fraction of those stars that have planets
ne is the average number of planets that can potentially support life per
star that has planets
fℓ is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life at some
point
fi is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life
fc is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases
detectable signs of their existence into space
L is the length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into
space.
And that is just the unlikelihood of ever receiving a signal from them. Now keep in mind that the Big Bang occurred about 13.7 Billion years ago. So your talking about a life form forming that has the ability to somehow detect life elsewhere in the universe, a process that alone would take tens of thousands of light years and lifetimes to accomplish without dying out or having anything else go wrong. And that's before they could even figure out how find a way to get there, which by all accounts is likely to be impossible. There simply hasn't been enough time for this to happen even if you assign the most generous numbers to these variables.
Also, remember, evolution through natural selection isn't inevitable; it only arises when selective pressures warrant a high frequency of genetic mutation replication, so it could very well be that planets that do develop intelligent life, don't develop intellects or animals that use technology because either the reproduction doesn't reward it or the planet doesn't survive long enough. If anything had gone wrong for primates, or any of our other common ancestors, we might be stuck with crocodiles for the past 500 million years instead other forms of intelligent life with no intellect or consciousness. Of the hundreds of millions of species that we can estimate from the fossil record, only one has had the perfect conditions necessary to evolve technology use.
Then you get into the problem of traveling millions of light years as an intact entity, which Quantum physicists do not believe to be possible, in a straight line without crashing into a planet or encountering debris, gasses and other planets, which astrophysicists believe to be impossible. The number of stops and starts that would require to navigate around objects would be a process of such time consumption that it would be essentially prohibitive for any life form to accomplish.
The bottom line is that if you want to believe in Extra Terrestrial UFOs then, like religion, go for it. But its just that; a leap of faith, and while there is zero evidence to actually believe in it, the odds of it's likelihood are so small that it's not really even worth considering as a possibility let alone actually thinking that it has happened and the government is just trying to cover it up.
Thanks to Obama and Podesta ... UFO Info is Coming.
Man, would I love to see this happen. Maybe it is bs, but if it ever was released it would result in instant and permanent trust...think about it.
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