50% chance of depression in US - New England Patriots Forums

***NEPatriot*** · 12-21-2008, 09:56 AM

Gulfnews: 50% chance of depression in US

Quote:

The US economy has a 50 per cent chance of falling into a depression during the next three years, said Roger Farmer, a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research's economic fluctuations and growth programme.

YouTube - **DEC. Alert** US to be CUT OFF from World - Baltic Dry Index Falls 93%

Quote:

US to be CUT OFF from World - Baltic Dry Index Falls 93%

***BelichickFan*** · 12-21-2008, 10:17 AM

As far as I can tell there isn't even a technical definition of a Depression. The "definition" is something worse than the worst standard recession. If anyone has a proven definition (like the two quarters of negative growth for a recession) I'd like to hear it.

My point being, if there isn't an actual definition then it can be a Depression if people want it to be.

PatriotsReign · 12-21-2008, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BelichickFan

As far as I can tell there isn't even a technical definition of a Depression. The "definition" is something worse than the worst standard recession. If anyone has a proven definition (like the two quarters of negative growth for a recession) I'd like to hear it.

My point being, if there isn't an actual definition then it can be a Depression if people want it to be.

A depression is anything worse the a classic recession or even a severe recession. Just about all US recession fall into a model of 12-24 months, declining GDP and high unemployment. The worst recession we've had since the Great Depression was the 1980-'82 (or there abouts) recession.

If we see anything deeper and longer than that, it will probably be a depression. If we experience 6 years of negative to flat GDP and high uneployment, it will probably be a depression.

But I think you're right about there not being a model of depression. We've only had one since the industrial revolution. Keep in mind though, it won't have to "Look like" the great depression for us to be in a depression. Just as all recession aren't the same.

***BelichickFan*** · 12-21-2008, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatriotsReign

A depression is anything worse the a classic recession or even a severe recession.

The was my point that people associate a Depression with The Great Depression (have there been others ?) and it's misleading if TGD was, say, 50 value points of different between a severe recession and itself to squirm about a "Depression" if it's one value point worse than a severe recession.

I know when I hear "Depression" I think of TGD and that is not on the table IMO.

PatriotsReign · 12-21-2008, 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BelichickFan

The was my point that people associate a Depression with The Great Depression (have there been others ?) and it's misleading if TGD was, say, 50 value points of different between a severe recession and itself to squirm about a "Depression" if it's one value point worse than a severe recession.

I know when I hear "Depression" I think of TGD and that is not on the table IMO.

You're right BF! I think the biggest fear we all have is the fear that we just don't know how bad things are going to get. We all hope it won't be "that bad" but I think most of us also have underlying thought that it actually might end up worse.

Most of us don't even want to consider a "worst case scenario". I know I don't. For while, I allowed myself to be over-whelmed with "what would I do if?" type thinking. Then I realized it was getting me depressed and weighing me down.

***NEPatriot*** · 12-21-2008, 11:39 AM

U.S. debt approaches insolvency | Spero News

Quote:

According to new figures published by Bloomberg in recent days (Nov. 25, 2008 [1]), the American government has employed a total of 8.549 trillion dollars to stop the financial crisis. This means a total of about 24-25.4 trillion dollars of direct or indirect public debt weighing on American taxpayers.

washingtonpost.com

Quote:

Obama's top economic advisers told him the economy is now expected to lose as many as 3.5 million jobs over the next year. Obama was told that could drive unemployment, currently at 6.7 percent, above 9 percent, a figure not seen since the recession of the early 1980s.

With liberal and conservative economists calling on the government to spend $800 billion to $1.3 trillion to stanch the bleeding, the greater danger to the nation, Obama was told, lies in doing too little rather than too much.

PatriotsReign · 12-21-2008, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NEPatriot

U.S. debt approaches insolvency | Spero News

washingtonpost.com

try using your intellect and engage yourself in your own thread rather than just posting new clips.

Do you even understand the topic you chose?

MrBigglesWorth · 12-21-2008, 03:44 PM

Gee go figure. Barney Frank is a joke. He needs to be removed. Votes for the bailout that enabled this. He should be ashamed of himself

Quote:

$1.6 billion went to bailed-out bank execs - Economy in Turmoil- msnbc.com

$1.6 billion went to bailed-out bank execs
Records show bonuses, chauffeurs, health club benefits, financial planning

Benefits included cash bonuses, stock options, personal use of company jets and chauffeurs, home security, country club memberships and professional money management, the AP review of federal securities documents found.

Rep. Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services committee and a long-standing critic of executive largesse, said the bonuses tallied by the AP review amount to a bribe "to get them to do the jobs for which they are well paid in the first place.

"Most of us sign on to do jobs and we do them best we can," said Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat. "We're told that some of the most highly paid people in executive positions are different. They need extra money to be motivated!"

mr3putt · 12-21-2008, 04:40 PM

Believe the worst
Wall street is cooked

Anyone who invests in stocks without strict oversite and accountability is a fool. Everytime one of these scams crashes biilions in investor equity the talking heads chide the victims for lack of due diligence.

How can you verify the facts when the CEO's cook the books?
How can you validate the financials of a company when the rating institutions, Moodys, Standard and Poors and Finch sign off on bogus credit?
How can you assume that the SEC will even listen when legitimate concerns are voiced multiple times without action?

Hell even the Banks themselves won't trust enough to lend to each other. They are taking the funds provided by the TARP and pocketing the last few pennies into their bloated pockets.

It is a crisis of leadership now.
An entire generation of retirement savings has gone up in smoke. This money stolen deliberately by a few executives who will walk away rich.

The polititians won't help you....
The regulatory agencies won't help you
For those over 50 a bleak future looms

Hide your remaining cash under the mattress and get ready for your golden years to include a lot of cat food and a Walmart greeter's apron.

My 2 cents

MrBigglesWorth · 12-21-2008, 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr3putt

Believe the worst
Wall street is cooked

Anyone who invests in stocks without strict oversite and accountability is a fool. Everytime one of these scams crashes biilions in investor equity the talking heads chide the victims for lack of due diligence.

How can you verify the facts when the CEO's cook the books?
How can you validate the financials of a company when the rating institutions, Moodys, Standard and Poors and Finch sign off on bogus credit?
How can you assume that the SEC will even listen when legitimate concerns are voiced multiple times without action?

Hell even the Banks themselves won't trust enough to lend to each other. They are taking the funds provided by the TARP and pocketing the last few pennies into their bloated pockets.

It is a crisis of leadership now.
An entire generation of retirement savings has gone up in smoke. This money stolen deliberately by a few executives who will walk away rich.

The polititians won't help you....
The regulatory agencies won't help you
For those over 50 a bleak future looms

Hide your remaining cash under the mattress and get ready for your golden years to include a lot of cat food and a Walmart greeter's apron.

My 2 cents

I'd agree. 401k's were just a scam to get people to invest money and then it could be taken.