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"The bottom line is that we are set for a sharp rise in the unemployment rate over the December-January period to above 7%. We should be looking for the unemployment rate to hit at least 8% over the next six to nine months, but the actual peak in the rate will likely be higher still in this cycle, as it is generally considered a lagging indicator, meaning that it continues to rise even after the economy starts recovering from a recession.
To complete the picture of a uniformly bleak outlook, the employment data contained a very sizable decline in total hours worked last month (-0.9%), which will have a strong connection to fourth-quarter GDP. It now looks like the economy will contract at a rate of as much as 5% in this quarter, which underscores that point that can no longer be ignored: This is not a run-of-the-mill recession but a historic event."
Last edited by PatriotsReign; 12-05-2008 at 03:57 PM..
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