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so we have a gentleman's bet. I say no inflation at all and you say hyper-inflation. How long do you think will take for this to start?
18-24 months from now. How much would you like to bet?
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I don't buy the Peter Shciff rationale at all. As you know, more and more economists are leaning toward deflation every week. But I'd say that more are still arguing inflation than deflation.
I'd have to say that hyper-inflation AND deflation are the 2 least supported arguments after ordinary inflation. But we can both post links to the reasons why we believe our favorite theories, but lets' post our own reasons why we support each argument.
I agree witht the Deflation theory mainly because I believe the economy will contract too fast for the dollar to completely collapse. Everyday I read that this indicator or that one is accelating downward "faster than economists anticipated". So that is my main reason that hyper-inflation can't/won't happen.
It won't matter that the gov't dumps trillions of printed money onto the economy because people still won't spend it because they have too many bills to catch up on.
In order for hyper-inflation to actually occur, people would have to start spending money to drive demand higher and higher as the dollar becomes worthless. I just don't see how you think that can happen.
Last edited by PatriotsReign; 11-07-2008 at 12:21 AM..
Hey, I'm glad to hear you hunkered down for a full 20 minutes and watched those vids!
Don't get me wrong, I watch long video and read long articles, I just don't like watching & reading long ones that people post on this board. I try to always post stuff as brief as possible because I know that just cuz I find something interesting, doesn't mean others will too.
I like what Schiff says, but he's as arrogant as they come. I've watched him questioned on panels with other economists and he always seems to speak as if none of the others know jack except him.
Even if there's some truth to that, no one wants to listen to that stuff. Economics is a combination of knowledge & vision but even the best are going to be wrong on 25-50% of their forecasts.
Last edited by PatriotsReign; 11-07-2008 at 01:24 AM..