Couild someone explain this Zogby/Newsmax Discrepancy/Lie?? - New England Patriots Forums

***DarrylS*** · 11-02-2008, 05:47 AM

Came across this first in Worldnet, an article by Dick Morris that indicates that McCain has creeped ahead of Obama..

Newsmax.com – Zogby Shocker: McCain Leads Obama In Latest Poll

Quote:

Dick Morris tells Newsmax that Friday night's polling for Zogby of 1,000 likely voters shows a huge shift for John McCain.
Zogby's poll, conducted on Friday night only, has McCain at 48 percent and Obama, at 47 percent.
Zogby's overall poll has Obama with a lead, but that's based on a three-day average that includes Wednesday and Thursday polling data.

Now from Zogby..

Zogby International

Quote:

UTICA, New York -- After a strong day of polling for Republican presidential candidate John McCain on Friday, Democrat Barack Obama experienced a strong single day of polling on Saturday, retaining a 5.7 point advantage that is right at the edge of the margin of error of the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll. The race has remained remarkably stable down the stretch, this three-day rolling average poll shows.

Pollster John Zogby: "Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.

"So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.

***Patters*** · 11-02-2008, 06:24 AM

The righties are looking for any glimmer of hope they can find. Zogby gave them a glimmer, but it's quickly faded.

If you click on the individual states here:

Pollster.com: 2008 Pennsylvania Presidential General Election: McCain vs Obama

it shows trend lines. Either every pollster has got it wrong or it's too late for McCain to catch up.

***DarrylS*** · 11-02-2008, 07:00 AM

I know, guess my disbelief has to do with such disengenuous reporting..

Hey Patters you are green again.. congrats..

sdaniels7114 · 11-02-2008, 07:01 AM

It sounds like Dick Morris and Newsmax are being stupid. A legit pollster is only required to have a properly weighted sample at the end of the polling period, not all during it. It could be that people started turning against Obama on Friday for no discernible reason; but a more likely reason is that the poll acquired more democrats on Wednesday/Thursday and only came into balance when it took more Republican data on Friday.

***Patters*** · 11-02-2008, 07:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DarrylS

Hey Patters you are green again.. congrats..

If it lasts too long, it means I'm being too nice to the righties!

***DarrylS*** · 11-02-2008, 07:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patters

If it lasts too long, it means I'm being too nice to the righties!

IMO it is the stupidest thing on this board, wish there was a way to disable it.. particularly as it seems to be manipulated by a certain few.. I would fade to black if I could.

***Harry Boy*** · 11-02-2008, 07:07 AM

The "Politically Correct Liars" and the millions who say "Nothing" might get McCain elected, in a close race those things happen.

Wouldn't it be nice if The Messiah took his Poor Old Aunt out to McDonalds today and bought her a
"Happy Meal".

***DarrylS*** · 11-02-2008, 07:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Harry Boy

The "Politically Correct Liars" and the millions who say "Nothing" might get McCain elected, in a close race those things happen.

Please clarify..

***Harry Boy*** · 11-02-2008, 07:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DarrylS

Please clarify..

The people who lie when polled.

The people who sit home and say nothing, they have no bumper stickers, no signs on their lawn, they make themselves heard in "The Booth"

The typical reaction from the Double Standard Far Left Wing to the "Zogby Poll", Censor It, Destroy It, Book Burn It, we don't like it so it should not exist.
Doesn't all that sound a little like "The Pelosi Gang" and their plans for Talk Radio?

scout · 11-02-2008, 08:20 AM

There was an article on polling about a week ago. The jist of it was that polling was not a clear cut sample of calls/questions made to the sample group. After the polling took place, the pollster then put the answers through some criteria that they felt justified the poll. That would explain why an organization such as Fox News or NY Times are way off from other polls.