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Yup, the mainstream media is sooo happy to inform us all that new home sales are up 3% in September '08 vs. the prior month. What they DON'T tell us is that that they are DOWN 30% vs. last September!!
Anyone who knows anything about business would know that you always compare against the same period a year ago. Because when all is said and done, at the end of 2008, home sales will be compared to 2007.
But to use the +3% September vs August number rather than the -30% September '08 vs. September '07 decline is unacceptable. I guess our MSM really does support our gov't after all.
Last edited by PatriotsReign; 10-27-2008 at 11:37 PM..
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Yup, the mainstream media is sooo happy to inform us all that new home sales are up 3% in September '08 vs. the prior month. What they DON'T tell us is that that they are DOWN 30% vs. last September!!
Anyone who knows anything about business would know that you always compare against the same period a year ago. Because when all is said and done, at the end of 2008, home sales will be compared to 2007.
But to use the +3% September vs August number rather than the -30% September '08 vs. September '07 decline is unacceptable. I guess our MSM really does support our gov't after all.
When you have somebody wasting away from Cancer and they're down to like 80 lbs and gain a pound you don't lament the fact that they were 120 lbs a year ago. You take what you can get, even if it is a very modest or even tiny gain.
Sure, when the market is normal you context month numbers to that same month years ago but when things are this bad I think month to month is appropriate.
When you've been in decline for the longest time, a positive month is news worthy. Especially since a lot of talk has been centered around finding a bottom, or wondering when the bottom will be reached. A positive month would obviously be the first step in determining that. I think there is more room to go though, but the bottom is near. The market conditions seem to be setting themselves up for a more rapid recovery, than most are predicting.
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"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him." Leo Tolstoy, 1897
When you've been in decline for the longest time, a positive month is news worthy. Especially since a lot of talk has been centered around finding a bottom, or wondering when the bottom will be reached. A positive month would obviously be the first step in determining that. I think there is more room to go though, but the bottom is near. The market conditions seem to be setting themselves up for a more rapid recovery, than most are predicting.
The bottom will depend on how bad and long the recession is. Home values won't start increasing during a bad recession because there won't be enough buyers to reduce inventory. Of course that can still vary market to market.
I've said this before but it's worth repeating. The entry level home price sets the entire market. So when enough people can afford that group of homes, we'll have hit bottom. For my area south of Boston, I think a nice, move in ready starter home should bottom out around $270-280K. And that includes new home as well.
The bottom will depend on how bad and long the recession is. Home values won't start increasing during a bad recession because there won't be enough buyers to reduce inventory. Of course that can still vary market to market.
I've said this before but it's worth repeating. The entry level home price sets the entire market. So when enough people can afford that group of homes, we'll have hit bottom. For my area south of Boston, I think a nice, move in ready starter home should bottom out around $270-280K. And that includes new home as well.
Don't look now but....
Quote:
Mass. median home price drops below $300G
By Jerry Kronenberg
Monday, October 27, 2008 - Updated 20h ago
E-mail Printable (2) Comments Text size Share (0) Rate
Massachusetts median house prices have fallen below $300,000 for the first time since 2003, but the number of houses changing hands has also risen for the first time this year, new figures show.
“The market is moving again as homeowners are becoming realistic about pricing,” said Timothy Warren of The Warren Group, which issued today’s report.
Warren said the number of houses changing hands shot up to 3,637 last month - an 8.5 percent gain from September 2007 levels.
That’s the first time in 11 months that house sales have gone up on a year-over-year basis.
Low rates, bottoming housing, stronger dollar (an unreal $1.25 versus the Euro & $1.56 against the pound), and the collapse of oil over record highs lead me to believe that the conditions are set for a more rapid recovery than most are predicting. Remember that the stock market can (not saying it will) rebound just as fast as it fell. If next year the bottom line figures come in higher than expected, people could dump their money right back in again. I'm not saying this will happen. I'm just presenting what I see as a plausible scenario. The crucial part is whether or not lessons have been learned here. I personally do not think so, and therefore see any recovery as a similar bubble as 4-5 years ago. If the economy does rebound, rates need to be raised once it does. They won't be though. Not to any level that's necessary IMO. Credit based everything has to be tamed moving forward.
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"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him." Leo Tolstoy, 1897
New Home Sales Up 3%!!
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