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New England still wins the division, but the Bills make it much closer than expected. The Jets and phins both collapse and fall on their faces, leaving the Bills to take over second in the division.
Thoughts?
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I'm a bit leery of predicting a team's final record based on counting up the predictions of the individual games. Every team has their WTF games over the course of a season; who would predict the Saints losing to the Rams and Bucs, for example?
I think the Bills might be slightly lower while the Jets and Miami slightly higher;; at this point I'd guess the Patriots go 12-4, the Bills 10-6, the Jets 7-9 and Miami 6-10 - but a whole lot can and will change between now and Labor Day to change those guesses.
One startling thing that I had not noticed before though is the opening stretch of the Jets' schedule. They start the season with games against the Bills, at Pittsburgh, at Miami, the 49ers and Texans; then after what could be a trap game against the Colts they are in Foxboro to play the Patriots. The Jets could very easily start the season 1-4 or 2-5.
We've already seen in the recent past that they have plenty of bravado when winning, but don't handle adversity well at all. If their locker room imploded last year when they went 8-8, what would happen if they start out 1-4, 2-5 - or worse? It's possible they could completely unravel at that point and end up with only four or five wins. On the other hand if they can manage to come out of that start with three or four wins they're set up with a relatively easy finish in the second half of their schedule.
I see the Bills having mid-late season struggles due to a lack of quality depth (injuries) and not winning the close ones. There is too much on the shoulders of too few players and injuries will happen.
I'm pretty sure the Pats will dominate the division again but I feel that any of the other three teams could still make a strong push for a wildcard spot.
So the Patriots have lost back to back games a handful of times the past decade and they're going to do it twice this year? And one of them back to back home games? I'd bet that hasn't happened since 2002 which was a down year. Barring injury this won't be a down year. You can't just take the 4 toughest projected games and bill them as losses.
Baltimore has been dying to get the Patriots down there. I wouldn't be shocked if they lose that one depending on how the youngsters fill in for Suggs with the extra playing time.
__________________
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There's only two conclusions for Patriots fans on rookies. They are either a bust or being fitted for their bust in Canton.
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I think Miami is a year away from moving into third place, but that could change depending on how the Jets handle their QB situation. A Jets locker room implosion will land them in the basement so fast their heads will spin.
Buffalo improved themselves on defense with Williams, and I think he'll have a huge impact. Fitzpatrick is definately good enough to get Buffalo to second place.
The Patriots FINALLY beefed up the defense, ad I love the players they picked. A HEALTHY 2012 should get the Patriots back to the big game, and very likely win it. As with any team, health and injuries are key, but I really like what the Pats have done. Miami and the Jets will jockey for 3rd and 4th, with New England and Buffalo solidly entrenched at 1 and 2, respectively.
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New England still wins the division, but the Bills make it much closer than expected. The Jets and phins both collapse and fall on their faces, leaving the Bills to take over second in the division.
Thoughts?
There's no way the Patriots lose all 4 of those games. It's possible they will lose 4, but not those 4. They WILL win at least one of those games against San Fran., Baltimore, or Houston; and likely lose against someone they SHOULD crush. Happens every year. Miami and Buffalo could be contenders for that honor, but we'll have to wait and see.
Pats are 6-0 against Baltimore in regular season play. Its going to be an interesting game. Pees is now the DC in Balt, so it will be interesting to see what NE will do in that game.
If losing to Baltimore isnt bad enough, you have the Pats losing to Buffalo in back to back weeks. I really dont think that is going to happen, but i understand the homer pick.
The next two? Losing back to back home games hasnt happened in NE since 2006 just so you know.
Both Houston and SF are good teams, but unless harbaugh has straightened out Alex Smith, the 9ers passing game has to be suspect. Smith threw 12 td's and 15 int's. Thats not a very good td/int ratio in case you were wondering.
Houston - i have concerns about how well matt schaub will rebound from his knee injury. Still overall a solid team, albeit one who has lost its two defensive players in the off season.
Pats are 6-0 against Baltimore in regular season play. Its going to be an interesting game. Pees is now the DC in Balt, so it will be interesting to see what NE will do in that game.
If losing to Baltimore isnt bad enough, you have the Pats losing to Buffalo in back to back weeks. I really dont think that is going to happen, but i understand the homer pick.
The next two? Losing back to back home games hasnt happened in NE since 2006 just so you know.
Both Houston and SF are good teams, but unless harbaugh has straightened out Alex Smith, the 9ers passing game has to be suspect. Smith threw 12 td's and 15 int's. Thats not a very good td/int ratio in case you were wondering.
Houston - i have concerns about how well matt schaub will rebound from his knee injury. Still overall a solid team, albeit one who has lost its two defensive players in the off season.
I have us at 12-4 too. The sked this year is so easy that you have to find a loss and I think 3 of those 4 are the most likely scenarios. SF and HOU come back to back but late in the season. We're likely to have AFC East locked up by then. The only other loss I could see would be Denver.
I see BUF and NYJ both at 9-7 with MIA struggling.