JJDChE

As uneasy as I feel about this game due to the last few matchups we've had with these guys (2009 still stings), I have to remind myself that not only is this team better than probably any team we've fielded since 2007, this Ravens team is also worse than any team they've fielded in a while. They allowed more points on defense than we did ferchrissakes! Look at the two teams comparisons from 2011 to 2012. Their offense had a slight uptick, but they've regressed in almost every other area. OTOH, we've gotten better in nearly every area.

Games aren't played on spreadsheets, but there's a pretty stark difference between the two teams that met in the AFCCG last year.

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OnTheHeights

Agreed. Last year I was legitimately worried about playing the Ravens in the AFCCG, and those worries were eventually justified. This year I'd say I'm more like... very cautiously optimistic... I think this team is good enough to beat the Ravens, and should beat them, though I'd be far from shocked if the Ravens actually win.

This Pats team, even without Gronk, is much better than last year's version, mostly thanks to the much improved defense. The "improvements" to the defense late last year were largely overstated, but the improvement this year, in the addition of Talib, and McCourty moving to safety, is actually a huge benefit.

RealityCheck52

Playoff Football is won in the Trenches.. I would focus on examining the most recent data on the play of the Ravens Offensive and Defensive Lines.

Then examine how they match up with the Patriots.

Will the Ravens Offensive line give Flacco ATS and be a force for our running game.

Will the Ravens Defensive line/pass rush limit the Patriots run game and make life uncomfortable for Brady..

Using you are only as good as your last game philosophy things look good for the Ravens..

Peyton Manning: Sacked 3 times, Fumbled twice, 2 INTs

Flacco: 1 Sack in overtime, 1 QB hit.

This is within the context of playing the best pass rush team and second best pass protection team this season.

Absurdly Metro

Last week doesn't matter except in the sense that the Ravens are playing well again. It's about match-ups and more importantly, execution. Last week's match-ups don't necessarily carry over to this week. We found that out the first time we played Houston. We seem to match up well against them and executed well also. The result was a huge blowout that had Pats fans thinking the team was unbeatable. Then the 49ers showed up. Oh well. You know the rest.

I think the Ravens and Pats match up well to each other. They're both mentally and physically tough teams that never give in. That's why unless one team or the other doesn't execute well or turns it over a bunch, it is always a close game between them. I expect this will be no exception.

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Whorod

For anyone interested, Raven's Pats chat on Baltimore Sun Website right now. I got my first question answered. I was kind of baiting, but the writer didn't really bite (or is actually informed):

"Who do you think poses more problems for the Ravens. Brady, or Peyton? Do you expect Brady to have less or more success moving the ball on the Ravens defense?


I think Tom Brady represents the greater challenge considering his live arm, accuracy and quick-strike style. Peyton Manning is up in years, had that neck surgery and runs an offense that could be problematic for the Ravens. With Brady, the no-huddle, up-tempo style and his vast playoff experience is really formidable. If the Ravens don't get excellent pressure on him, it could be a long day. And that's not a knock on the Ravens' defense, particularly the secondary. It's just very difficult to stop. I think the story of this game will be how the Ravens handle the no-huddle and if they can keep up with the Patriots' fast pace. This will severely test older players like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed and slower players who aren't in as good condition for this kind of game like beefy nose guard Terrence Cody. Do I think the Ravens are capable of stopping or slowing down Brady? Yes, but if they don't get pressure quickly and tackle well after the catch is made, the Ravens could be Brady's latest victim.
by Aaron Wilson a minute ago"

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/r...,1264605.story

JJDChE

The 'only good as your last game philosophy' is usually only brought up when the last game was the best one a team has played in a while. That 'philosophy' is also sometimes known as cherry picking.

The Ravens seem to be playing a bit better than they were in the back half of the season, then again, they did allow 420 yards of offense to the Colts and 400 to Denver, so it isn't like they're playing lights out.

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Deus Irae

Interesting move. An entire season of stats went against you, so you decided to completely ignore them in favor of using one game against a wildly overrated team that still had the Ravens beaten but for a safety getting stupid at the end of the game.

The move failed, obviously, but it was interesting.

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Holy Diver

Edelman was playing corner last year.


let that sink in....


Then click this


http://media.masslive.com/patriots/p...198-mmmain.jpg

JJDChE

I should've added a column for 'WRs playing CB" to my spreadsheet.

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Timbo717

True, although using the same method the Patriots also just dropped 40+ on a defense that on average gave up 2.6 pts per game more than Denver over the course of the season in a tougher division. This is despite only sacking Shaub once and getting only one interception, and the Texans getting a sack of their own. I couldn't find the number of QB hits, but if you take only the stats you use above, it would tell you that the Pats didn't have a 25 point lead at one point in this game. But they did and the bottom line wasn't just lineman execution, it was execution across the board. Not only from a player standpoint but a coaching standpoint. The Texans were unwilling to change some of their strategies over the course of the game. Patriots made adjustments, and won.

This is the problem with trying to look at one or two statistics or one or two aspects of the game. It is far more complex than that. NFL Playoffs are won by every guy on the field, by good and bad coaching decisions, by luck, and unfortunately at times a bad call or two. Teams recent trends shouldn't be ignored, but they also shouldn't be this trimmed down, and OL/DL play should not be judged soley based on what you are judging it on.

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