Ice_Ice_Brady

The Patriots have now played six playoff games since 2007 against teams they had faced in the regular season, and the results haven't been pretty. We'll start all the way back in 2007, the Welker era, with teams the Pats played in the regular season and then the playoffs. I'll also include Brady's average YPA and YPC, along with sacks allowed.

2007

vs. San Diego
Regular: 38 points; Brady: 9.0 ypa; 11.2 ypc; 2 sacks
Playoffs: 21 points; Brady: 6.3 ypa; 9.5 ypc; 2 sacks

vs. NYG (sorry to bring this on here)
Regular: 38 points; Brady: 8.5 ypa; 11.1 ypc; 1 sack
Playoffs: 14 points; Brady: 5.5 ypa; 9.2 ypc; 5 sacks

***One thing people don't realize is that the Pats downgrade in playing San Diego a second time was similar to their debacle against the Giants. Clearly the passing game was already struggling mightily even before the SB.

2009

vs. Baltimore *Welker out, along with some major injuries
Regular: 27 points; Brady 8.1 ypa; 12.3 ypc; 3 sacks
Playoffs: 14 points; Brady 3.7 ypa; 6.7 ypc; 3 sacks

2010
vs. NYJ (for regular season, average of both games)
Regular: 34.5 points; Brady 8.7 ypa; 13.8 ypc; 2 sacks
Playoffs: 21.0 points; Brady 6.6 ypa; 10.3 ypc; 5 sacks

2011
vs. Denver
Regular: 41 points; Brady 9.4 ypa; 13.9 ypc; 2 sacks
Playoffs: 45 points; Brady 10.7 ypa; 14.0 ypc; 0 sacks

vs. NYG (this one, too)
Regular: 20 points; Brady 7.0 ypa; 12.2 ypc, 2 sacks
Playoffs: 17 points; Brady 6.7 ypa; 10.2 ypc; 2 sacks

TOTALS (AVERAGE OF ALL SIX GAMES):
REGULAR: 33.3 POINTS; BRADY 8.6 YPA, 12.4 YPC, 2 SACKS (PER GAME
PLAYOFFS: 22 POINTS; BRADY 6.6 YPA, 9.9 YPC, 2.9 SACKS (PER GAME)

Conservative Gameplans

One thing that I've always lamented about the Patriots is their conservative gameplans when the playoffs begin, and I fear that could be their downfall again this year. The Patriots rarely try to run vertical plays and go underneath more than usual; it is even rare for them to try passes down the seam or sideline outs to WRs. The exception was last year against Denver, and some of it is colder weather. Every playoff game, it seems like the offense goes into its shell, dinking and dunking, underutilizing their superstars while preferring low-risk, low-reward passes.

Pass:Run Ratio

I did not include the stats on this, as I didn't have time tonight, but many have noted that the Pats abandon the run too often, or that the running game is ineffective. That was quite apparent in the playoffs against the Jets in 2010 when the Jets activate nearly every defensive back on their roster, daring the Pats to run the ball. Obviously, a one-headed attack in the NFL can be snuffed out, even if it is Tom Brady.

Pass Protection- Myth?

It has been said that the offensive line chokes in big games and struggles to protect Brady, and allowing 3 sacks versus 2 sacks is a big difference but not the type of glaring difference you'd expect when analyzing this. Bottom line is, Brady was sacked quite a bit by some of these defenses during the regular season as well and still managed to average over 30 ppg. I find it more difficult to believe the offensive line is to blame more than the gameplans.

Yards After Catch?

Another theory that may describe the huge discrepancy is the passing game's reliance on players gaining big yardage after the catch. This could explain why the Patriots' offense tanks in the postseason more than other teams, as opposing defenses play more aggressively and at full speed... of course, it still may be a stretch that these same defenses are not playing to their full ability during the regular season.

Preparation

Final theory before posting this: perhaps opponents study the Patriots with the same intensity that the Patriots study them when the postseason begins. This may explain why studious QBs such as Brady and Manning seem to cruise the regular season before hitting some major speed bumps in the playoffs. Perhaps during the regular season, they exploit weaknesses on gamefilm; during the playoffs, they become the exploited ones.

Observer

Offensive line performance is the key. Sack totals are misleading because Brady is good at not getting sacked. But while he is not getting sacked, he is throwing the ball away, making errant/difficult throws, or panicking in the pocket. Our short passing game requires a lot of plays to cover the length of the field and the probability of the whole sequence succeeding can drop significantly if the probability of any play succeeding is reduced by even a small amount.

patsfan13

Well off the top of my head, a few observations.

In 2007 the O started to slow down, as teams figured out that Moss and Welker were the weapons, no real running game. Remember the Ravens game for example. I would also note that Brady was injured in the SB that year (High Ankle sprain IIRC).

2009 team just wasn't very good (remember the NFL net show on that club, again Welker injured Moss hurt (with alligator arms) BB was complaining about how the O could be stopped if you took Moss & Welker away, well Welker was out so it was a matter of CB + Ed Reed taking Moss away, along with some jailbreak rushes early in the game.

2010 Int early + Crumpler drop + Chung miscue. However Rex did come up with the D adjustment playing 7-8 DB and the in game adjustments didn't work well ( hadn't seen that from Rex before). Running game unable to take advantage of the scheme the Jets used.

2011, shredded Denver twice and was shredding the Giants until shoulder was injured in the 3rd qtr. Even with that if Welker & Brady connect on 1 pass the Sb score would exceed the Reg season game, this without Gronk.

IMHO due to the running game + the number of weapons (ie Healthier Gronk, Lloyd > Branch and much improved running game) I expect the O to perform well this year.

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RayClay

We have a running game this year.

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ALP

i think some of these need to be looked at a tad bit closer:

2007 giants:
-was it neal that went down in the 1st Q? our OL backups that year didnt have much experience, and really were a huge downgrade
-also, didnt a 2nd OL starter go down in the 2nd half? those are injuries that impacted Brady's protection (primarily up the middle) and gave him very little time
-brady was hurt 2nd time around

2009 ravens:
-that offense was pretty bad back then, and 2nd time around not having welker cannot be overstated, even if described in terms of catastrophic
-we were in a deficit very quickly

2010 jets:
-a combination of events that seemed to all be destined against the pats that year, when Brady throws a pick on a screen play, you know things are a little whacky

2011 giants:
-we had gronk the first game right? well that was def. a big diff, due to his versatility hes prob the 2nd most important person on our offense

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Last time I lived in New England the Pats became a Dynasty

Then I moved away and they haven't won since

...now I'm moving back, and a Lombardi I predict

ALP

also another thing: im pretty sure officiating changes b/w the reg. season and the playoffs

the way calls are made in the postseason, our offense gets negatively affected, it seems the secondaries of any team (including us) can get away with more contact than is allowed within rules, and is allowed during the reg. season

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Last time I lived in New England the Pats became a Dynasty

Then I moved away and they haven't won since

...now I'm moving back, and a Lombardi I predict

TheBostonStraggler

I think some people lose sight of or are unaware of the Patriots of the last 11 years. This is a team that has been the best or just about the best team entering the playoffs on some occasions......but has also clearly not been the best team entering the playoffs. The mark of the Patriots has been to win despite those times being the seemingly lesser team.

As another mentioned, OL play is key. The heart of the Patriots method of winning is TFB leading a robust passing game. You'll hear the talking heads speak to this sometimes, referencing how to stop TFB is to pressure him with the pass rush. Never quite understood how that is specific to TFB, nevertheless, it is effective in neutralizing the heart of the Patriots. So I am not going out on a limb to say if the OL struggles (whether Hou or Den or Balt or Cincy or Indy), TFB's numbers will definitely be down and the Patriots ability to win will be in serious jeopardy. Bottom line, give TFB some protection and his performance doesn't worry me. Always up to his high standards? I doubt it. Poor enough to be concerned it will not be enough to win? I doubt it. Does any of it correlate to having played a team during the regular season? I doubt it....

A note about the Ravens loss a few years back: the better team won, period. I watched a Ravens team beat a Patriot team in every aspect. Running game, the OL, the DL, the secondary......the Ravens won the battles at every stinking point of attack. A mental and physical domination by the Ravens. IMHO WW would not have changed the final outcome. IMHO that game was the most lopsided mentally/physically I have seen the Patriots be part of in the BB playoff era. For this game, TFB's poor performance was just part of a full team poor performance......meaning I see a difference between that versus TFB having an individually bad performance that hurt the Patriots ability to win a game.

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Gumby

I think what the KNOWLEDGEABLE anaylsts said that some of the others parrot and miss the point is:

to stop TFB is to pressure him UP THE MIDDLE with the pass rush.

TB is exceptional at the small little Marino-like steps/dance around the pocket that gives him a little bit of room or gives his blockers the right angle to take a guy out of the play for a few seconds.

What he is not good at is throwing on the run or when he cant set that well. He needs to be able to step into the throw. So while the edge rushers get pushed around a circle or he steps up so they miss; the pass rush over the A/B gaps disrupts his ability to set-(puts him running sideways) and takes away his ability to step into the throw.

mayoclinic

Lot of good points, that many have already made.

I think that it's not a homogeneous group of games, nor a single set of factors. Injuries to key personnel (Brady, OL, Welker, Gronk), lack of offensive balance, game planning, and above all execution played a factor.

- The 2009 team minus Welker just wasn't that good
- The 2010 team was good but needed a running game and couldn't adapt to the Jets' putting 8 DBs and daring them to run
- The 2011 team was very good and was within a hair's breadth of a SB win with a Gronk injury and Brady with a bum shoulder
- The 2007 team was great and was within a hair's breadth of a SB win with a porous OL and a hobbled Brady

This team has much more versatility and a greater variety of weapons. It's proven that it can win all season while missing key personnel, and with the OL hobbled, so it's already been fairly battle tested. There are no guarantees, but I think it's a bit better prepared.

The biggest difference between this team in 2007: the league had all season to adapt to the 2007 offense before playing them again in the playoffs. This year, the league hasn't even seen the 2012 offense at full strength yet. We haven't had the full array of weapons on the field together healthy since the Tennessee opener, and the offense was still figuring out how to use its new toys at that point.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

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robertweathers

Bill Walsh always said that to win a Super Bowl, a football team needs to win in every single way possible. Passing, running, defensively, special teams, luck, health, mental toughness, etc. I don't want to get too fanboyish but going back to the playoff losses since 04, this team is in a best position to win the Super Bowl better than any other team (yes- I said that).

'05 to DEN- Missing Rodney, horrible secondary, no running game, limited options in the passing game, 5 turnovers.

'06 to Indy- Missing Rodney, worst 2nd 1/2 defense ever.

'07 to NYG- Injured Brady, Neal, Faulk. Allowed pressure w/ 4-5 man rush and 6-7 DBs. Offense was slowing down and mentally drained. BS Tyree catch, Asante drop. Eli in the grasp...Perfect Storm of hell.

'09- WW out and outmuscled and mentally beaten down by BAL

'10- The pass defense and the lack of a threat to run the football and make plays.

'11- Gronk out. WW drop. Pass D. TB hurt shoulder.

'12- They have a pass defense. They have a pass rush. They have an explosive running game that can cool the pass rush on TB. They have an o-line with depth. They have a versitile passing game. They are mentally tough.

Seems to me that they need some luck, health and play to their capabilities to win...which is all attainable. The fanboy cometh...

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