mgteich

To me, this group looks mcuh better with the addition of a veteran like Carter even if his skills are significantly diminshed from 2011.

OLB/DE
2011: Carter, Anderson, Ninkovich
2012: Jones, Scott, Ninkovich, Bequette, Carter maybe

ILB
2011: Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher, Guyton
2012: Mayo, Spikes, Hightower, Fletcher/Carpenter

ST or last couple of LB's
Lots of competition in
White, Tarpinian, Koutouvides, Cunningham
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As an aside, Fanene should be solid addition to the DL, replacing the injury prone Wright. And Pryor may be abck healthy, or not.

supafly

As far as OLB, Cunningham certainly has a shot at still making the team, especially with one more slot opened/lessened competition with the release of M.Carter. I wouldn't give up on Cunningham just yet.


As far as the ILB's go, we've kept the same 3 as last year (Spikes, Mayo, Fletcher) traded Guyton for Hightower, and possibly traded White for Carpenter as a ST only player.

Last year--Spikes, Mayo, Fletcher, Guyton, White

This year--Spikes, Mayo, Fletcher, Hightower, EITHER White/Carpenter

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patfanken

2 completely different situations OLB and ILB

1. The Depth at BOTH positions are almost infinitely improve (pardon the hyperbole). Last season with Spikes hurt and Fletcher playing with one hand, we were forced to use the likes of Tracy White at ILB. This season with Spikes and Fetcher both being back, and the additions of Hightower and Carpenter our ILB situation has vastly improved

2. The OLB situation is much more complicated. Long term the outlooks is great with Jones, Bequette, Scott, and Cunningham essentially all new additions from last season, to join Ninko and hopefully Carter as combo DE/OLBs. The bad news is we aren't sure what we have with Cunningham and Scott, and Bequette and Jones are rookies making the toughest transition possible (a college DE becoming a 3-4 OLB)

Remember Vrabel, Bruschi, Ninko, Colvin all took 4+ years before they became productive OLB's in the BB system with Ninko Vrabel, and Colvin taking 4 years to get the kinks out on someone else's team. Just like now with Scott, though injuries the past 2 years have made his journey more difficult to project. Also you have to factor in the Hightower potential to play OLB/DE in certain situations as well.

So given the numbers of guys who are capable of playing the position, our situation is looking up. But given the question of experience and ramp up time, I'll be much happier if/when Carter returns. Remember if he doesn't we have lost 20 sacks and the large bulk of our pass rush of last season.

BOTTOM LINE: I love the ILB situation. I "like" the OLB situation much better than last season, but I'm also apprehensive about the short term effectiveness of this group.

BTW- this might be off the wall, but is it possible to infer that the release of Markell Carter last week tells us the Pats are happy with the progress Jermaine Cunningham has been making this off season and are expecting a lot more from him.

AndyJohnson

I think you are going to see Hightower outside, in a 34 or 43.

mayoclinic

Some comments:

1. As Andy notes, Hightower gives the Pats depth at OLB as well as ILB. You could essentially view the DE/OLBs as Ninkovich, Scott, Jones, Bequette, Hightower, Cunningham, +/- Carter. That's great depth, even if the situation at the top is a bit uncertain.

2. Last year we went into training camp with 2 complete unknowns in Carter and Anderson. Both worked out very well. That's no guarantee that things will work out this year, but I think we're starting off in better shape than a year ago. Reports from OTAs have been that Travis Scott looks very good so far, FWIW.

3. Don't count out Jeff Tarpinian out ILB as well. Reports are that Bobby Carpenter was working with the 1st team at OTAs a lot, but that may not mean much. But Carpenter, White and Tarpinian give the Pats a lot of coverage/ST/depth options behind Mayo/Hightower/Spikes/Fletcher.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

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AndyJohnson

I don't agree with this.
Colvin played and played well in Chicago and immediately converted from their systems to BBs.
Vrabels spent time elsewhere, but that doesn't necessarily mean he would not have been productive if he had the chance to play. He was in a 1gap 34 system, not the best system for his skillset, and was blocked by 2 good players who were better fits.
Bruschi started every day BB was here. His early years were not adapting to BBs system, they were playing in Pete Carrols system (after Parcells as a rookie) and learning the move from college DE to NFL 43 LB. He was never a 34 OLB. Ninkovich was a JAG who showed up here and started by year 2.

The evidence to back up that players take 4 years to learn BBs system is thin at best. This is important because if it were truly the case, we should scrap the position since the average NFL career is less than 4 years.

DaBruinz

What Ken was saying is that Ninkovich, Vrabel and Colvin were all 4 year veterans before joining the Pats and it was that learning experience that helped them to thrive in the Pats system.

Bruschi did NOT start every day BB was here. Bruschi was a role player in 1996. In 2000, Bruschi was starting at OLB. However, in 2001, with the addition of Vrabel, Bruschi was not starting. You seem to forget that 2001 the Pats played a 4-3, not a 3-4. It was only after Ted Johnson was injured that Bruschi moved to ILB. And it was only in 2002 that the Pats moved to the 3-4, getting both Bruschi and Johnson on the field as the starters. Bruschi, himself, even stated that it took him 3-4 years to get comfortable in Bill's system.

As for Ninkovich, he was a 4th year vet when he joined the Pats (are you starting to see the similarity that Ken was talking about yet?) Yes, Ninkovich was starting at OLB for the Pats in his second year, but that was out of necessity.

Now, as for the statement that the average NFL career is less than 4 years, THAT is the statement that can be scrapped. Why? Because it's one made by the NFLPA and they make it a point to include ALL players who get signed to a roster at some point. The NFL uses a number of 7 years based on just the 53 man roster from Sept the final cutdowns at the end of pre-season. This came out during the CBA negotiations.

mayoclinic

FWIW, Trevor Scott is a 4 year vet with experience in 3-4 and 4-3 schemes including playing the elephant in Oakland. I'm hoping that will help ease his transition for the Pats.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

AndyJohnson

No he didn't. He said they took 4+ years before they became productive OLBs in the BB system.
If you think Ken meant something different than the words he chose indicate, perhaps we should leave it to him to say so.


I did not say otherwise/


Bruschi started in 2001.

I didn't seem to forget anything. We started in a 34, and when we moved to a 43 Bruschi, not Ted Johnson was the MLB.
In any event, how do you get that Bruschi is an example of a 4+ year training period to be a 34 OLB for BB?

This is not correct. The Pats started 01 in a 34 then switched to a 43. They played 43 all of 2002. Saying it took 3-4 years to understand the in depth schemes is not saying it took 4 years training to be able to play.

Another poor example.

That really is irrelevant anyway, since we drafted 2 LBs in the first round who signed or will sign 4 year contracts.
If it takes 4 years for a player to be able to play LB in our system we wouldn't have thrown away 2 draft choices for guys to sit and learn and get paid for 4 years so they can become free agents and go play well elsewhere.
I would note that Cunningham started year 1, and since you want to include ILB, Mayo and Spikes did as well, and Guyton started in year 2.
Do you have any list of Patriots OLBs that weren't playing behind a very good player that had to sit 4 years to learn? I don't think there are any.

mgteich

One issue is roster size

I think that we are fine with 11-12 DE/OLB's. However, We will be limited to 9-10. Let us presume 6 pure DL's and 9 DB's (not counting a Ster. We would then have 10 spots for DE/OLB's, ILB's and Sters (one of which is often a safety.
============================
NINE - TEN ROSTER SPOTS

The norm seems to be 4 DE/OLB's, 3 ILB's, 1 ILB/OLB and 1 Ster for a total of 9.

A 10th roster spot is sometimes a ST/LB and sometimes a ST/S. In any case, this player shouldn't be counted on to help out at a position.

We can check the stats, but my guess is that FIVE got the vast majority of the reps, plus TWO pass-rushers (Carter and Anderson). That is a total of SEVEN. We need TWO more for depth (Guyton and White last year). These two need to be special teamers.
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ANOTHER ANALYSIS

DE/OLB (choose 5) ...................Ninkovich, Scott/Cunningham, Jones, Bequette, Hightower

ILB (choose 3)...........................Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher/Carpenter

STer, emergency LB (1) .............White, Koutouvides, Tarpinian

ST who could be LB or S (1).....White, Koutoviders, Tarpinian, Brown, Cole, Williams, Allen
=========================
SOME NOTES

At DE/OLB Ninkovich is back. Jones and Scott take the roster spots of Carter and Anderson. And we have Hightower and Bequette for good measure (good since 3 of the 5 are rookies. Cunningham got almost no reps last year. He is unlikely to beat out any of these five, but is good to keep until the end in case of injury.

At ILB, Mayo and Spikes are back. We need a #3 for the rotation, noting that Hightower can also play inside. That player is Fletcher or Carpenter. There is no room for both Carpenter and Fletcher. Competition is good.

At LB/STer, we have 3 solid choices in White, Koutovides and Tarpinian.

IMHO, the 10th position should really go to defensive back. We could carry 10 defensive backs, given the injuries and youth among the group. Obviously, this player must be first and foremost a special teamer. Even if the 10th spot goes to a LB, I would suggest that the most efficient choice (and the best choice) would be one of the special teamers, all of which can actually be an emergency LB (or a developmental one in the case of Tarpinian)