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From the Skeptical Sports guys:

Don’t Play Baseball With Bill Belichick » Skeptical Sports Analysis

JoeSixPat

Interesting analytical approach... So if I'm reading it right, Belichick's history drafting quality players in the 2nd round has been the key to his success?

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mayoclinic

Shhh, don't tell anyone ... don't you know that BB is terrible at drafting in the 2nd round?

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

patchick

Pretty much -- they're talking specifically about concentrating draft firepower in the section of the draft with the best cost/benefit ratio, which has been the late 1st-2nd. Not so much about player selection as a broader view of rate of returns.

Over on the draft board, I recently started a thread about the 2nd round, because of a LOT of comments suggesting that the Pats have an atrocious record with 2nd-round picks:
The Patriots' Record in the 2nd Round

What I came away with was that they actually have a very good hit rate on 2nd rounders. The trick is that they've made such a huge number of picks in that round that failures naturally mount up, and that's what fans remember.

This article seems to support that conclusion, and further suggests that the much-maligned 2nd round has actually been a key engine of the team's success. (Alas, I don't expect it to stop the cries of, "b-b-but, Chad Jackson! Darius Butler! See how terrible BB is with 2nd rounders? )

What's particularly interesting is the article's take on this year's draft -- that the trades up in the 1st indicate BB is adjusting to the changed "yield curve" of the new CBA, which has made higher picks better investments than in the past.

mayoclinic

I think that may play a role, but it's still likely to depend on the depth of each draft. The 2012 draft was relatively shallow at the top, and the Pats were able to trade up and get 2 guys who they rated highly - Mike Mayock's #9 and #15 prospects overall, I believe, FWIW. 2013 looks to potentially be a much deeper draft, so they might be better served by finding 1st round values at a bargain in the 2nd round, as they did with Rob Gronkowski in 2010.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

patchick

Absolutely. Even under the old "yield curve," you had years like 2007 when they practically opted out of the draft rather than negotiating within it. So the shape of the draft class and the status of the existing roster are doubtless the biggest factors operating on a single year, but it will be interesting to see if a new long-term trend emerges with the new salary structure in place.

Triumph

In the other thread you said that Spikes was a full time starters by year 2. Thats false Brandon Spikes NFL Football Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Wilson was very good playing beside Ty Law and Rodney Harrison but who wouldnt be?

Chung, yes he starts and is nothing special at all. Unless you want to call being apart of 2 (2010/2011) terrible pass defenses something to be proud of.

patchick

Nope, I didn't. I never used the words "full time" -- I just looked for whether they started most of their games. Spikes was listed as a starter in 3/4 of his games in his first season, 2/3 in his second season. If you want 100% starts, we'd have to adjust Pittsburgh and Baltimore's numbers, too.


Again, I was just aiming for a simple, objective criterion. If you only count 2nd round picks as successful if the players are "special," every team's success rate would be very small indeed. (Hmm...Gronk, Vollmer, Light, Branch? Not awful, actually.)

borg

I'm a big fan of statistical analysis....and I can understand how it can be used as one tool of many in team building....but...as far as this guy's analysis of sweet spots and changing philosophies go.......he's reaching. Why, you ask?
Here's why? (in no particular order)

1) More premium picks are better than fewer premium picks.....regardless of changing financial dynamics/contract lengths.
.......1A) And if rosters expand (seems to be leaning that way under this new safety emphasis), need will be greater
.......1B) And...this new concussion era will unfortunately brand a large group of veterans with concussion histories with a scarlett letter. It may come to a point where this group becomes unsignable....therefore...diminishing pool of talent=greater need of new talent

2) NEED!....Patriots needed playmakers on a 31st ranked defense void of impact talent. Eleven years of stockpiling, and 2012 happened to be the year that BB used his chips.

3) The "sweet spot" of drafts the author refers to, back half of 1st rd/front half of second rd, is already on the roster in the form of 2.5 red shirt 2011 draft picks....Dowling and Vareen (Ridley less so). Look back at the 2011 draft and it is clear (to me) that all picks but one were chosen with 2012 in mind. Solder was depth until Light retired. The fact that Volmer was hurt elevated him early. Vareen....depth. Faulk had 1 year left, Vareen gets the redshirt year in waiting. Same with Ridley ....BJGE had one year left. Mallet.....we'll see on that one....but he was a luxory pick for a team with a surplus. Which leaves Dowling.....he was a need pick and would have been the starting CB if he stayed healthy. Remember, the lockout limited the offseason, and BB drafted in '11 with the future in mind.
My point here, BB already had his new influx of upper middleclass players on the roster, redshirted....therefore he could afford to spend some mid round draft pick capital to move up into the upperclass of the draft.

Conclusion: the 2012 draft was an anomaly as far as BB and the Patriots are concerned. More is better when talking about premium draft picks....especially as the league gets conservative in the health department. Depth will always be a major factor in success and I can't believe BB has changed his core team building philosophy. 2012 just happened to be a year when extreme need aligned with the availabilty of two players that fit the Patriots template to a tee. Jones....athletic, long armed, edge/pass rusher combo.....and Hightower ....versatile large LB. The need was high and the players were obtainable.

The bigger question ahead is: How does BB get back on normal track and gain some extra #1s and #2s. No way will he fall into line like most other teams with a traditional slotted draft. I bet that thought is killing him right now.

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