patsfan13

So some of us get frustrated when BB trades down and gets an extra pick here and there instead of getting out binkey. Then we look at the roster and see that not all of those stockpiled picks make the team, and that makes us crazy and think perhaps BB is crazy.

Caught this video on the NFL network on the value of draft picks is the 3rd DE statistically a lot better than the 4th or 5th... seems it may not matter. IOW there is a lot of luck involved.


Food for thought as we approach another draft and see BB trade down:

NFL Videos: Football Freakonomics: Draft Luck


and the paper they refer to in this piece:

The Loser's Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft | Berkeley.edu PDF


Yale School of Management


Call me crazy but I'm guessing BB and E Adams are sorta familiar with this stuff, maybe even talked to the authors...

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"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."

VrabelJr

Here let me sum up this study that probably six figures worth of salaries were wasted on: Don't put all of your eggs in one basket.

jmt57

That's a very interesting piece that unfortunately will be ignored by the masses due to its length and highly technical jargon. The loud volume of 'you have to use that pick', 'trading down is bad', 'you need playmakers', and the 20:20 cherry picking hindsight of 'look who they could have drafted, he's an idiot!' will drown out any statistical evidence that the draft is such a crapshoot that more picks is better than fewer picks.

And yes, my guess is that Belichick and Adams are already familiar with it, just like when BB called a very surprised Cal-Berkeley professor named David Romer about an analysis he had done regarding the probabilities and expected outcome of going for it on 4th down back in 2005.

patsfan13

Since the draft statistical best guess, the path to success lies in having more picks. This is exactly what we have seen in the Pats drafts. It is the anthesis of trading multiple picks to move up.


I think this approach has kept the team consistently competitive and avoided the feast or famine results of many other franchises.

__________________
"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."

robbomango

Great post,

The losers curse seems like a great read for fans interested in the drafting process, looks worth getting threw the economic geek speak at 1st glance imo. Definitely won't have mass appeal, to jmt's point.

Amusing video summarising the probability of an ugly truth

nabwong

Thanks for the articles PF13.

Honestly, I don't understand why pats fans are annoyed or angry when we trade down. For example.

This year's #1 = This year's #2 + next year's #1.

We have a FREE #2 every year. This is partly how we're able to sustain this dominance for a long time. What BB is doing is not a secret. Also, it's not to our advantage to make this aware to other teams. Who cares? The less they know, the better for us. They'll be more willing to trade with us (because they have to) and they won't have their egos bruised.

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Belichick: Stats are for losers. Final scores are for winners.

PatsWickedPissah

Without any doubt BB and Ernie are familiar with this study.

OT: I found this interesting...

"their findings about the market for football players could extend to other labor markets where organizations select talent, such as CEOs and new graduates, whose future performance also can be difficult to predict. “In our judgment, there is little reason to think that the market for CEOs is more efficient than the market for football players. Perhaps innovative boards of directors should start looking for the next Tom Brady (pick number 199) as CEO rather than this year’s hot young prospect"

As an investor, an MBA guy and former corporate exec, I could not agree more regarding the over value that Board's of Directors place in "name" CEOs and the inherent lack of "value" that their lavish compensation packages represent to the company and its stockholders

__________________
Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded — here and there, now and then — are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty.
This is known as "bad luck." RAH

patsfan13

We have read that BB has roster values for each position roster spot, wonder how ROI analysis like this is incorporated into the cap/roster management equation.


BTW for folks reading this you can get the jist of the argument just from the 3 min vid at nfl.com.

__________________
"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."

PatsWickedPissah

Any doubts that BB had read this paper are dispelled here...

"While we do not elaborate this finding since it is not the focus the paper, it is clear that teams giving up a second-round pick next year for a third-round pick this year are displaying highly impatient behavior. Though it is not possible to say whether this behavior reflects the preferences of the owners or the employees (general manger and coach) who make the choices (or both), it is a significant arbitrage opportunity for teams with a longer-term perspective."

Paper published in 2006. BB has been working this arbitrage strategy with "impatient" teams since.

__________________
Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded — here and there, now and then — are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty.
This is known as "bad luck." RAH

cmasspatsfan

Someone should send this to felger so he doesnt sound like such a moron come draft time, then again it might be too challenging a concept for felger to grasp.