Quote:
Originally Posted by captain stone
The Pats defense absolutely has to somehow produce turnovers, which will at the very least change field position. Naturally, if the defense or STs could also score a TD, that would go a very long way toward securing victory, esp. if Brady can manage not to throw another 1st-quarter INT.
Bottom line: if we don't win the turnover battle, we don't win the game.
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Not exactly. Not all turnovers are created equal.
Most teams who lose the turnover battle loser their games. This is not a surprise. But if you go back and look through most of Brady's interceptions, it is evident him and some of the other elite quarterbacks in this league are operating under slightly different rules than your average NFL QB. Most up and coming elite QB's like Aaron, and Brady of 2007, become efficient strictly by not throwing picks. That's their first goal.
But the more I look into it the more it's becoming increasingly evident to me guys like Brees and Brady are beyond that, and their understanding of the game is very much incorporated into their team's overall offensive strategies which means they're pushing the envelope by taking riskier shots. Resuming to a strictly 0 turnover mentality may actually hold the overall offensive attack back.
Not all of Brady's interceptions are game killers. The majority of them happen near the opponent's red-zone, and usually happen with the game tied or up. Which is when they don't actually hurt you as much as you think. They hurt your offense, because you don't score, but not your defense. In a situation such as this, even though you turn over the ball, sometimes you're still the team that's expected to score next. At other times it's almost 50/50.
And I don't think this is an accident, but I believe it to be part of the more aggressive passing strategy NE employs. Naturally you would rather have none, but the reason why some teams like the Saints and Pats can still win games with a -turnover margin has a lot to do with their quarterback's ability to understand the game of field position.
He can throw a pick in the 1st quarter as long as we've already scored and its in the Giants red-zone area and doesn't get returned. We'd still be fine. Which is why Pats offense still comes out more efficient and win despite a - turnover margin. What we don't want are the interception or fumble in our own half, or a fumble off of a punt return.
Sure, 0 would be ideal. But 1 turnover, depending on the type it is, won't kill this team against the Giants. Efficiency stats indicate the Giants need to be +2 to really come out ahead, and they're just about guaranteed to turnover the ball at least once as well. While not indicated, the Pats could get away with as many as 2 and still win the game. So it's not time to panic if it does indeed happen.
What killed us against the Giants was the fumble in our own territory which resulted in 7 points. The first two interceptions only cost us 3 points combined, not nearly as bad as the 7 point fumble. The average turnover is valued at roughly 3.5 points, but it seems like the Pats have cut that value down in
half for interceptions.
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