glm

I was reading this article on PFR blog about win expectancy in the playoffs, which they basically looked at how the run game and defense performed and if the QB should have won or loss based on the support around him. They split it up into five different categories: Gimmes, Easy, Neutral, Difficult, and Impossible. (For the record, Tommy has won two impossible games, both in 2002. They were against the Chiefs and the last Dolphin game)

Article:

Quarterback post-season records and Simpson’s Paradox » Pro-football-reference.com blog » Blog Archive

I did this for every game of Tommy's career and ranked the seasons, here they are (First number is actual wins, second is expected wins):

07 Brady: 16 - 9.72 = 6.28.
10 Brady: 14 - 7.90 = 6.10.
11 Brady: 13 - 7.34 = 5.66.
03 Brady: 14 - 10.01 = 3.99.
02 Brady: 9 - 5.08 = 3.92.
04 Brady: 14 - 10.62 = 3.38.
05 Brady: 10 - 7.07 = 2.93.
01 Brady: 11 - 8.17 = 2.83.
09 Brady: 10 - 8.79 = 1.21.
06 Brady: 12 - 10.92 = 1.08.

Satchboogie3

I'd be very interested to see how this breaks down for Eli Manning in the playoffs.

__________________
This is the year. We put our failures in the past, it's a new year, a new defense. It's time to prove to the league that the Patriots are back and aren't going anywhere and they will be the last ones standing in Feb.
Update: Well that didn't work out as I had planned. Next year baby, next year 19-0 we go. Next year.

PatriotSeven

The main thing I got from all that, is I found the best word to describe the 2011 New England Patriots defense and special teams in correlation to their yards stats. A perfect example of Simpson's Paradox. Thanks.

As for the rest of it, yeah it's interesting but certainly flawed. Without taking into consideration the supporting cast, and the rest of their casts execution on each particular playoff game, among a million other factors you can't really make those claims.

Supporting cast is going to play just as big a factor in who's been placed in the toughest situation along with game situation. And then of course the question comes into play as to WHY they were in that situation in the first place?

Usually it's because those same quarterbacks played bad in the beginning of the game.

glm

Gimmes: 1
Easy: 1
Neutral: 7
Difficult: 0
Impossible: 1
Expected Wins = 5.28
Actual Wins = 7
Wins Over Expected = 1.72

and here's Tommy in the POs:

Tom Brady:
Gimmies = 1
Easy = 3
Neutral = 13
Difficult = 2
Impossible = 2
Expected Wins = 10.18
Actual Wins = 16
Wins Over Expected = 5.82