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Old 01-21-2012, 10:59 AM   #1
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Default Deep Thoughts on Pats Ravens

Here's a few musings about tomorrow's game.

1. I am really glad we have Nate Solder going into the playoffs. Knowing we have a combination of Light, Vollmer and Solder makes me a lot more confident about the Pats ability to handle the edge pass rush of T-sizzle and dare I say the G-men's or San Fan's front 4 should we move on the SB.

2. There is a lot of Flacco bashing going on this week in the media. I'm not having it. He made some incredible throws in the Houston game beating tight man to man coverage. All year we've seen the Pats CBs run with wide receivers but be unable to turn and play the ball. This facet of the game scares me. Not sure if those were fluke throws by Flacco or if he can consistently deliver the ball like he did against Houston.

What I've gathered from watching AFC Championship coverage this week is that the way to beat Flacco is to pressure him up the middle as he doesn't like to be moved off his spot and have tight coverage on his check down (typically Ray Rice). If Love, Wilfork and Warren can dominate the line of scrimmage like they did against Denver and get a consistent push up the middle that will bode well for us. Perhaps will see some inside blitzes.

3. Defensively, some expect that Baltimore will use Jimmy Smith to cover Hernandez and a combination of LB/FS over the top coverage on Gronk. I've also heard that they will likely allow Lewis and Reed to roam free with out any specific coverage duties.

4. I have not heard a lot of talk about defensive schemes for the Pats this week. Is it a foregone conclusion that they will play 3-4 this week to be stout against the run?
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Old 01-21-2012, 11:09 AM   #2
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Default Re: Deep Thoughts on Pats Ravens

Quote:
Originally Posted by kurtinelson View Post
Here's a few musings about tomorrow's game.

1. I am really glad we have Nate Solder going into the playoffs. Knowing we have a combination of Light, Vollmer and Solder makes me a lot more confident about the Pats ability to handle the edge pass rush of T-sizzle and dare I say the G-men's or San Fan's front 4 should we move on the SB.

2. There is a lot of Flacco bashing going on this week in the media. I'm not having it. He made some incredible throws in the Houston game beating tight man to man coverage. All year we've seen the Pats CBs run with wide receivers but be unable to turn and play the ball. This facet of the game scares me. Not sure if those were fluke throws by Flacco or if he can consistently deliver the ball like he did against Houston.

What I've gathered from watching AFC Championship coverage this week is that the way to beat Flacco is to pressure him up the middle as he doesn't like to be moved off his spot and have tight coverage on his check down (typically Ray Rice). If Love, Wilfork and Warren can dominate the line of scrimmage like they did against Denver and get a consistent push up the middle that will bode well for us. Perhaps will see some inside blitzes.

3. Defensively, some expect that Baltimore will use Jimmy Smith to cover Hernandez and a combination of LB/FS over the top coverage on Gronk. I've also heard that they will likely allow Lewis and Reed to roam free with out any specific coverage duties.

4. I have not heard a lot of talk about defensive schemes for the Pats this week. Is it a foregone conclusion that they will play 3-4 this week to be stout against the run?

1- Definitely agree. Gives us depth and our O-Line is healthy as it can be at this point. Also, love having GRONK to rely on in the pass block. Thats why Gronk>Jimmy Graham.

2-Flacco does not scare me. He's a skateboarder

3-Well they can take away Gronk and Hernandez (if they're lucky) then Welker will have a nice day. Can someone say, "Big 3"? God, this offense is so much better then previous years. Love these options. I'm expecting Branch to have a key, big play.

4-Who knows what Belichick is cookin' up for Defensive schemes, but I expect them to be very well prepared.

Cant wait for this game!
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Old 01-21-2012, 11:17 AM   #3
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Default Re: Deep Thoughts on Pats Ravens

Quote:
Originally Posted by kurtinelson View Post

3. Defensively, some expect that Baltimore will use Jimmy Smith to cover Hernandez and a combination of LB/FS over the top coverage on Gronk. I've also heard that they will likely allow Lewis and Reed to roam free with out any specific coverage duties.

I'm surprised there isn't a separate thread designated for how the Ravens defense will line up w/ us.

Sounds like you're stating they'll play more zone.
Ed Reed and Ray are future HOF'ers....BUT


The Raven's D will have too much on their plate.
We'll line up 5 WR, 2 TE sets etc, etc...(you name it)

They'll need to know (as a unit) when to go zone, match-ups man to man...when to blitz.....there should be plenty of mismatches and our no huddle/hurry up will kill them over the course of 4 quarters of champ football @ NE with TB ready for payback.

I want a good defensive game too!
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Old 01-21-2012, 11:23 AM   #4
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Our DL needs to do work on the right side of the Raven's Offensive line. That's their weak spot.
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Old 01-21-2012, 11:24 AM   #5
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... 3. Defensively, some expect that Baltimore will use Jimmy Smith to cover Hernandez and a combination of LB/FS over the top coverage on Gronk. I've also heard that they will likely allow Lewis and Reed to roam free with out any specific coverage duties. ...
Ray Lewis is the MLB on every every every every Ravens defensive snap.
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Old 01-21-2012, 12:04 PM   #6
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Default Re: Deep Thoughts on Pats Ravens

Quote:
Originally Posted by kurtinelson View Post
Here's a few musings about tomorrow's game.

1. I am really glad we have Nate Solder going into the playoffs. Knowing we have a combination of Light, Vollmer and Solder makes me a lot more confident about the Pats ability to handle the edge pass rush of T-sizzle and dare I say the G-men's or San Fan's front 4 should we move on the SB.
Hopefully Vollmer is ready to play. he was inactive last week.


Quote:
2. There is a lot of Flacco bashing going on this week in the media. I'm not having it. He made some incredible throws in the Houston game beating tight man to man coverage. All year we've seen the Pats CBs run with wide receivers but be unable to turn and play the ball. This facet of the game scares me. Not sure if those were fluke throws by Flacco or if he can consistently deliver the ball like he did against Houston.
Every NFL QB can make great throws. What separates good from bad is how often they do...actually how often they don't.

Quote:
What I've gathered from watching AFC Championship coverage this week is that the way to beat Flacco is to pressure him up the middle as he doesn't like to be moved off his spot and have tight coverage on his check down (typically Ray Rice). If Love, Wilfork and Warren can dominate the line of scrimmage like they did against Denver and get a consistent push up the middle that will bode well for us. Perhaps will see some inside blitzes.
Rice as a receiver is the biggest game changing weapon they have IMO.

Quote:
3. Defensively, some expect that Baltimore will use Jimmy Smith to cover Hernandez and a combination of LB/FS over the top coverage on Gronk. I've also heard that they will likely allow Lewis and Reed to roam free with out any specific coverage duties.
Brady will torch them if they try to cover with 5 defenders plus 2 guy running around with no responsibliities.

Quote:
4. I have not heard a lot of talk about defensive schemes for the Pats this week. Is it a foregone conclusion that they will play 3-4 this week to be stout against the run?
I don't expect to see the 3-4. I think the reason we used it last week was its advantage in spacing to defend the option. (Jays52 did a tremendous write up on that last week) but we haven't really played it against other teams much.
Its possible that Spikes health makes BB feel the matchups are better in the 34 though.
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Old 01-21-2012, 12:21 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kurtinelson View Post
Here's a few musings about tomorrow's game.

1. I am really glad we have Nate Solder going into the playoffs. Knowing we have a combination of Light, Vollmer and Solder makes me a lot more confident about the Pats ability to handle the edge pass rush of T-sizzle and dare I say the G-men's or San Fan's front 4 should we move on the SB.

The difference this season than in previous seasons is that the Ravens have more than 1 guy they can count on to get sacks. Suggs can dominate but so can Ngata, McPhee, and Kruger. Pats have a great Oline so I expect deceptive pressure.

2. There is a lot of Flacco bashing going on this week in the media. I'm not having it. He made some incredible throws in the Houston game beating tight man to man coverage. All year we've seen the Pats CBs run with wide receivers but be unable to turn and play the ball. This facet of the game scares me. Not sure if those were fluke throws by Flacco or if he can consistently deliver the ball like he did against Houston.
What people who bash Flacco don't understand is that he's in an offense that places less emphasis on the pass. If Brady goes26/40 with 2 tds and a pick and Flacco goes 13/20 with 2 tds and a pick, Flacco looks like he contributed less than Brady and the pick was bad. In reality, he just had less chances to impact the game so his numbers are more scrutinized. For instance, he was 14/27 last week and people say he had a bad game. No mention of the 5 drops from the receivers. I would think Pats fans remember the last 2 reg season games between these teams and would know that Flacco played extemely well.

What I've gathered from watching AFC Championship coverage this week is that the way to beat Flacco is to pressure him up the middle as he doesn't like to be moved off his spot and have tight coverage on his check down (typically Ray Rice). If Love, Wilfork and Warren can dominate the line of scrimmage like they did against Denver and get a consistent push up the middle that will bode well for us. Perhaps will see some inside blitzes.
I think that startegy would work for any QB not named Vick or Rothlesberger. Sound strategy for both teams.

3. Defensively, some expect that Baltimore will use Jimmy Smith to cover Hernandez and a combination of LB/FS over the top coverage on Gronk. I've also heard that they will likely allow Lewis and Reed to roam free with out any specific coverage duties.
I would think that would be avery good strategy. Haven't thought about that much but sounds plausible.

4. I have not heard a lot of talk about defensive schemes for the Pats this week. Is it a foregone conclusion that they will play 3-4 this week to be stout against the run?
If the Pats leave the receivers 1 on 1 outside they will pay. The should play a tight cover 3 with a spy on Rice. Don't know what formation that would work under.

Good analysus on your part.
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Old 01-21-2012, 01:00 PM   #8
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Well I haven't posted in a while, and now's as good a time as any.

In response to the OP:
1. I like what Solder's doing this year. He seems to be performing well. I just hope that this isn't one of those games you look back on thinking of how he struggled and that "he was only a rookie afterall." If Vollmer can muster a comeback for this game, we should obviously expect some rust. I honestly don't want him in there over Solder if there's no one else helping him out on the right side (i.e. a TE). I still love the idea of both of them on the line for a jumbo package. It reminds me of 2009 when we drafted Vollmer. We still had the incumbents Matt Light and Nick Kaczur at tackle, but under the theory of 'getting your best players out on the field', we added Vollmer to the line frequently (when he wasn't substituting for an injured tackle) for the same type of package.

2. Flacco is probably getting a little too much flack on this board. Have we forgotten how mediocre qb's have performed against us? I get the sense that our defense will actually perform well against him. Not lights out good, but I expect a decent showing. But after the season our defense has had, I don't think we should be so confident and dismiss him so easily. Even


In general my fears of this game can be broken down as follows:
1. Defense - Can we control the line of scrimmage well enough against the big Ravens O-line? They have a pretty darn good O-line that was challenged last weekend by a darn good Texans line. We played well last week, but I get the sense that our line won't be as disruptive and dominant against the Ravens as they were against the Broncos. If we can't contend on the LOS, then we're in for a long game (defensively).

2. Offense - We have a unique and strong offense that has developed over the course of the season. I like the strides they've made in perfecting their execution. However, the Ravens offense is talented and strong. In particular, their front seven features a powerful group. Our O-line has been holding up nicely and looked good last week. I just hope that they don't get pushed around on the LOS. Again, I look to us winning the battles at the LOS to be a major decider over who wins--our offense or their defense. If Brady's got the time, then despite what Ravens' fans think, they will get picked apart. If the Ravens start getting penetration, then it will be a long game on offense.


I finally watched Inside the NFL on Showtime this week. I saw LT on there who did a pretty good job I thought. He remarked on how well the Patriots make adjustments. It's amazing how much the team has improved in this area since 2009. They were horrid in the second half of games that season. In 2010, they improved a lot to become at least average in that category. This year, I feel as though they are one of the very top teams at making adjustments--and not just second half adjustments. As LT noted, they make quality, effective adjustments between series'. Whatever happens in the first quarter and half of this game, we can depend on this: they will "out-adjust" the Ravens. Pegano is the DQ. He's done a good job this year. Albeit, he has the players to be successful and a quality system to work with. But we will perform better in making adjustments than he does. The same goes for Cam Cameron, who Ravens' fans detest. Many want him gone with the only exception being if they win the SB.

There are a lot of reasons that can be thrown around for why one team will win or lose this game. Ravens' fans point to the fact that we haven't proven anything because we haven't been able to beat many good teams. If we lose this game, that might be the fatal flaw we come away with. If the Ravens' lose however, we will all point to the Ravens' performance issues on the road as their fatal flaw. It's surprising that a team who uses a strong running game and defense combination to win games struggles when on the road. I can understand a team like the Saints struggling, but it's a bit surprising with the Ravens. Even comparing their two games against the Steelers, you can see a definite difference. In the first match-up, they squashed the Steelers (home game). In the second game, they still won, but it was very close (away game).

I'm curious how Josh McDaniels will contribute in this game. He did play the Ravens earlier this year, so perhaps we have a leg-up in preparing for them. I wonder if it was his input that got Ocho essentially benched. It was probably O'Brien, but I wouldn't be suprised if he said "we're better off with Edelman." If we already thought he was gone after this offseason, that would be the final nail in the coffin. I can't blame them, at least Edelman is a decent blocker and occasionally gets open. I feel like Brady has a greater comfort with him over Ocho anyways.

Some Ravens' fans like to point to the 2009 game (not all of them). I can understand that game coming to mind, but that Pats team really wasn't that good and was a different team. We had a very productive offense at gaining yards, but we're horrible in the red zone. Plus, it was entirely dependent upon Welker and Moss. What does one expect when half the offensive production gets removed from the game (Welker's ACL tear)? That team still used the old spread offense from our former 2007 offensive glory days. But it wasn't nearly as effective, and was lacking quality receiving targets to make it function (and a running game). We had undergone a major offensive strategy change last year during the middle of the season, which got into full swing for the second half of the season. When we played the Ravens' in week 6 or so, they didn't have an opportunity to play the new-style Patriot offense. So it's very difficult to look to the past to try to predict the future when analyzing the Ravens defense against our offense. The Jets had the most success in the playoff loss last year, which we seem to have corrected since then. We played this style defense three times this year. Twice against the Jets and once against the 'boys. And we went 3 for 3. If anyone could figure out the Pats' offense, it would be Rex Ryan. Perhaps this style offense performs well against the Buddy Ryan 34?? I'm no x's and o's guy, so I can't make any legitimate claims.

The final concern I have for this team is due to all the players on the injury report. I know that some of them are probably red herrings, but I felt like that contributed to our ultimate elimination from the playoffs last year. We lost one too many d-linemen and had guys like Cohen and Love playing significantly in the playoffs (neither of them were ready for that level of action). I feel like if we have the same personnel playing on gameday as last week, then the defense will perform fine. Who knows? It could even be a defensive struggle all game. Or the opposite, a high-scorer. It's really hard to predict.

I know many will dismiss them, but I think it's interesting that both Rex Ryan and Mangini both are saying that they think the Ravens will win. Obviously, Rex is biased (as he admitted), but I still respect his honest assessment (assuming that it's not just wishful thinking). And regardless of his coaching failures, I still respect Mangini's opinion. He knows the Patriot's style and defense better than most (and we know that he knows how to beat the Pats)and I think was giving an honest and informed opinion.

Finally, I noticed that some Ravens' fans think we're being ****y. I think they're missing the point. Last weekend, both the Packers and Saints were eliminated. As far as I'm concerned, the Superbowl is truly up for grabs. No team looks scary to me anymore. It's a rat race for who wants it the most. Luckily for us, we've got the homefield advantage for this game, and then no matter who represents the AFC, they will be playing a very tough NFC opponent. We knew going into the playoffs that whoever represents the NFC that they are going to be a very strong team considering that the Packers, Saints, Niners, Lions, and Giants all made the playoffs (I didn't think much of the Falcons). I'm just glad we didn't have to compete in that conference.


With all that being said, should be a good game.
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Old 01-21-2012, 01:03 PM   #9
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I'm expecting Branch to have a key, big play.
I agree. I think there will be a similar play to last week. Branch will need to be a playmaker outside the hash marks.
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Old 01-21-2012, 01:12 PM   #10
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This year, I feel as though they are one of the very top teams at making adjustments--and not just second half adjustments. As LT noted, they make quality, effective adjustments between series'. Whatever happens in the first quarter and half of this game, we can depend on this: they will "out-adjust" the Ravens.
You're right. I haven't thought about it much but BB and the staff do seem to have their mojo back.
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