Brady_to_Moss

Anyone have any stats on #1 seeds and going to the SB? just wondering

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Patsfanin Philly

According to my not so scientific calculations, a #1 seed has 45% chance of making it to the Super Bowl.
In the last 10 years ( 20 #1 seeds in both conferences) 9 have made it to the Super Bowl. In the last 20 years, 18 out a possible 40 (45%) have made it to the Super Bowl.
2010---none
2009 --Indy--N.O.
2008--none
2007--N.E.
2006--Chi
2005--Seattle
2004--Phil
2003--NE
2002--Oak
2001--StL
2000--NYG
1999--STl
1998--Den
1997-none
1996--GB
1995--Dallas
1994--SF
1993--Dallas--Buf
1992--none
1991--Buf

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letekro

More importantly, how often does the #1 seed have to play three games or a road game to get to the SB?

Brady_to_Moss

NFL.com news: Infographic: Playoff record by seed since 1990


AFC #1 seeds (since 1990) has only won 1/4 of their SBs

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PatsWickedPissah

Too small sample size...

BUT

Odds are OVER 75% that a team with a 1st round Bye wins the SB

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jmt57

I think the headline on NFL.com is slightly misleading. While it is true that the top seed in the AFC has won only two Super Bowls since 1990, look at the breakdown of the number of Super Bowl winners by seed during that timeframe:

1. #1 - nine
2. #2 - six
3. #3 - one
4. #4 - two
5. #5 - one
6. #6 - two

Being the top seed still historically gives your best chance to win it all and the next best thing is to get a first round bye. The top seed wins half again as many times as the second seed, and the total wins by the three, four, five and six seeds combined is only equal to that of the #2 seed, and still less than the number one seed.

Obviously there is no sure thing but all that data shows me is that it's a whole lot better to get a first round bye than not, and better to get the top seed than any other slot.

patchick

That was my takeaway message. That's HUGE.

PatriotFan77

Too small? That's nearly half of all SBs???

PatsFanSince74

Thanks for the link. There was a thread on this a little while ago and I think the takeaway seemed to be that getting the Bye was most important.

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ThatllMoveTheChains!!!

This is the type of thing the NFL should do more of. Very interesting how the numbers work out. I do find it odd that the wildcard teams, while having a lower chance of making the SB, do extremely well in the SB.