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Here are the players in the top 20 for career games with 8+ catches, and their teams' records in those games:
1. Marvin Harrison, IND, 32-19
2. Jerry Rice*, SFO/OAK/SEA, 30-20
3. Cris Carter, PHI/MIN, 31-12
4. Hines Ward, PIT, 25-15-1 5. Isaac Bruce, STL/SFO, 15-20 6t. Wes Welker, MIA/NE, 28-7
6t. Jimmy Smith, JAX, 20-15 8t. Anquan Boldin, ARI/BAL, 13-21
8t. Tony Gonzalez, KAN/ATL, 13-21 10t. Terrell Owens, SFO/PHI/DAL/BUF/CIN, 21-12
10t. Andre Johnson, HOU, 18-15
12t. Randy Moss, MIN/NE, 21-11 12t. Torry Holt, STL, 15-17
14t. Tim Brown, OAK, 14-17
14t. Derrick Mason, TEN/BAL, 14-17 16. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR/CHI, 17-13 17. Eric Moulds, BUF/HOU, 11-18
18t. Reggie Wayne, IND, 18-9
18t. Rod Smith, DEN, 15-12
18t. Steve Smith, CAR, 15-12 18t. Keenan McCardell, CLE/JAX/TAM/SDG, 11-16
For nearly half of these players, when they caught 8+ passes, their team was more likely to have lost the game. So why is it that with Welker, the Pats are four times more likely to have won the game?
"Momentum was quickly snatched away by New England, who once again proved that any Patriot, at any moment, can make a play." —Inside the NFL, Packers v. Patriots
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i would assume because if we are playing from behind, welker is not really a big yd/catch type of guy, not a hail mary type of long pass guy
this means that he does not get targeted as much in games in which we are down big for a quick score
a second reason is because of the types of routes he runs, they are more of a high % of success/something good hapening, as with some other guys there its on the outsides, or deep balls, and they can get intercepted/pass defensed, which is a plus for the other team.....
Last time I lived in New England the Pats became a Dynasty
I think when Welker is able to get open and catch the ball, the Pats are probably moving the ball on offense. Thus, they are dictating the game.
Yes, I think this is a pretty good answer right here.
Nice find, ct--thanks.
Good to know that we have an 80% chance of winning when Welker catches at least 8 passes.
When you combine that stat with the 101-5 'turnover' stat, all we need to do is find a way for Wes to get open and hang onto the ball. Those 2 factors will almost always guarantee a victory. Although it's certainly easier said than done, they are 2 very important factors.
I will feel much better if/when he re-signs here, that's for sure. His chemistry with Tom Brady is one of the most important aspects of the entire offense, maybe even one of the most important factors of the entire team.