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Old 03-09-2008, 11:52 PM   #1
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Default Seven Weeks Til The Draft - 3 Spots to Fill

THE PATRIOTS ARE IN GREAT SHAPE.

We had the #1 Offense last year. We are in better shape now than we were in the playoffs.
We had a top 5 Defense last year. We are now three players away.
We are 11 DAYS into the offseason.
We have 7 weeks until the draft.
The patriots try not to go into the draft with critical needs for rookies to fill.
Therefore, we have 3 primary needs to fill before the draft or through draft trades.
We will also pick up veterans to compete for spots or as depth in case of injury
(for example, Aiken and Webster)
And then there's the draft and post-draft additions and trades!
--------------------------------------------------------
PRIMARY NEEDS:
CB, ILB, ILB
To replace Samuel, Colvin and Seau

---------------------------------------------------------
ROSTER ANALYSIS AS OF MARCH 10

OFFENSE (25)
QB - 3 Brady, Cassel, Gutierrez
RB - 3 Faulk, Maroney, Morris
FB - 2 Evans, Eckel
C - 1 Koppen, (Connolly)
G - 4 Neal, Hochstein, Mankins, Yates
OT - 4 Light, Kaczur, O'Callaghan, Britt, (Martin)
WR - 5 Moss, Gaffney, Welker, Washington, Jackson, (Jones),(Aiken)
TE - 3 Watson, Dave Thomas, Spach

DEFENSE (25)
DE - 4 Warren, Green, Seymour, Santonio Thomas
DT - 3 Wilfork, Smith, Wright
OLB- 3 Vrabel, Adalius Thomas, Woods
ILB- 5 Bruschi, Alexander, Slaughter, open, Izzo
CB - 5 Hobbs, Sanders, Webster, Spann, Richardson, (Mixon)
S - 5 Sanders, Harrison, Meriweather, Williams, Andrews/Ventrone

SPECIALISTS (3)
P - 1 Hanson
K - 1 Gostkowski
LS - 1 Paxton
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Old 03-10-2008, 12:04 AM   #2
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Default Re: Seven Weeks Til The Draft - 3 Spots to Fill

I"m only concerned about two things :

1) Upside to replace Samuel. I think we can find a guy even a little better than what we've brought in so far (Webster, Sanders) with someone like a Ty Law but it's difficult to see a guy with pro bowl upside other than a draft pick in the top three rounds.

2) Although we were OK without Colvin, the fact remains that Vrabel had 9.5 sacks before Colvin was hurt then had only 3 more the rest of the way and all three were in the one game against Miami. I know he was disruptive at times but sacks do matter and this is too much of a coincidence for me.
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Old 03-10-2008, 12:44 AM   #3
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Default Re: Seven Weeks Til The Draft - 3 Spots to Fill

Quote:
Originally Posted by mgteich View Post
--------------------------------------------------------
PRIMARY NEEDS:
CB, ILB, ILB
To replace Samuel, Colvin and Seau

---------------------------------------------------------
Add to that a olineman or two... and another te maybe.
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Old 03-10-2008, 07:42 AM   #4
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Default Re: Seven Weeks Til The Draft - 3 Spots to Fill

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2) Although we were OK without Colvin, the fact remains that Vrabel had 9.5 sacks before Colvin was hurt then had only 3 more the rest of the way and all three were in the one game against Miami. I know he was disruptive at times but sacks do matter and this is too much of a coincidence for me.
It's not a coincidence, and not Vrabel's "fault," either. If you have a B+ pass rusher on both sides, you're going to get more sacks than if you have an A+ pass rusher on one side, and a D+ pass rusher on the other. For example, consider the playoff game where Willie McGinest set the playoff sack record: on at least one of his sacks, if not two, the QB (Leftwich, IIRC), ran towards McGinest . . . because he was running away from Colvin.

While Thomas was good on the outside (he certainly wasn't a D+, IMO), he wasn't as good as Colvin was, which made it easier for teams to focus their energies on Vrabel.

[And, I might add, the loss of Wright didn't help matters, either: he may not have gotten many sacks, but his speed means he can get a lot of pressure, too.]
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Old 03-10-2008, 07:50 AM   #5
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Default Re: Seven Weeks Til The Draft - 3 Spots to Fill

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It's not a coincidence, and not Vrabel's "fault," either. If you have a B+ pass rusher on both sides, you're going to get more sacks than if you have an A+ pass rusher on one side, and a D+ pass rusher on the other. For example, consider the playoff game where Willie McGinest set the playoff sack record: on at least one of his sacks, if not two, the QB (Leftwich, IIRC), ran towards McGinest . . . because he was running away from Colvin.

While Thomas was good on the outside (he certainly wasn't a D+, IMO), he wasn't as good as Colvin was, which made it easier for teams to focus their energies on Vrabel.
That was basically my point - although Colvin is "more replaced" than Samuel, I am not excited in the least about him being gone. He's a big loss.
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Old 03-10-2008, 08:49 AM   #6
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Default Re: Seven Weeks Til The Draft - 3 Spots to Fill

Here is our first edition of the Patriots Draft Rumor Inventory, which lists out players in the draft which have been mentioned in connection with the Patriots in recent weeks.
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Old 03-10-2008, 08:57 AM   #7
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Default Re: Seven Weeks Til The Draft - 3 Spots to Fill

Hopefully, Colvin will look around, negotiate and re-sign. In the end, the best substitutes for Colvin and Seau are Colvin and Seau. Add Law or Surtain and a few more veterans at minimum and the team is as good as last year. Add the draft and we're better.

Quote:
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That was basically my point - although Colvin is "more replaced" than Samuel, I am not excited in the least about him being gone. He's a big loss.

Last edited by mgteich; 03-10-2008 at 08:59 AM..
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Old 03-10-2008, 09:18 AM   #8
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Default Re: Seven Weeks Til The Draft - 3 Spots to Fill

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Originally Posted by ctpatsfan77 View Post
It's not a coincidence, and not Vrabel's "fault," either. If you have a B+ pass rusher on both sides, you're going to get more sacks than if you have an A+ pass rusher on one side, and a D+ pass rusher on the other. For example, consider the playoff game where Willie McGinest set the playoff sack record: on at least one of his sacks, if not two, the QB (Leftwich, IIRC), ran towards McGinest . . . because he was running away from Colvin.

While Thomas was good on the outside (he certainly wasn't a D+, IMO), he wasn't as good as Colvin was, which made it easier for teams to focus their energies on Vrabel.
Completely disagree if a DL does not generate any presure up the middle then even the best pass rushers on the outside are useless as the Qb can step up and the tackle and push the pass rusher to the outside.

Thomas was a beast blitzing as they could not block thomas at 270 ,vince wilfork 325 lb and the ILB bru/seau .With both bru and seau in the field the middle pressure dropped.the QB stepped up and made play making vrabel ineffective.
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Old 03-10-2008, 09:21 AM   #9
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Default Re: Seven Weeks Til The Draft - 3 Spots to Fill

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Completely disagree if a DL does not generate any presure up the middle then even the best pass rushers on the outside are useless as the Qb can step up and the tackle and push the pass rusher to the outside.

Thomas was a beast blitzing as they could not block thomas at 270 ,vince wilfork 325 lb and the ILB bru/seau .With both bru and seau in the field the middle pressure dropped.the QB stepped up and made play making vrabel ineffective.
You're trying to compare apples and oranges here--Colvin-Thomas-Bruschi-Vrabel != Thomas-Bruschi-Seau-Vrabel. The point I was trying to make is that all other things being the same, two good pass rushers are better than one great pass rusher and one mediocre pass rusher.
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Old 03-10-2008, 09:26 AM   #10
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Default Re: Seven Weeks Til The Draft - 3 Spots to Fill

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Hopefully, Colvin will look around, negotiate and re-sign. In the end, the best substitutes for Colvin and Seau are Colvin and Seau. Add Law or Surtain and a few more veterans at minimum and the team is as good as last year. Add the draft and we're better.
To me Colvin was the biggest loss than Samuel on defense. I always thought his pass rush skills were underestimated but like you said the PATS definitely didn't want to risk the high $ based on his injury status so hopefully he will be willing to sign the 'Patriot' contract. This would make it easier for a Thomas to slide to ILB and let a rookie slowly ramp up to a starter.

I really think Law / Surtain have little in the tank, Law's only asset is his system knowledge which at a vet minimum would be beneficial. Proven & in their prime CBs are at such a high demand that it would probably make sense for the PATS to just do that (sign Law to a vet minimum) instead of paying $$ & too many good players for a Lito Shephard....I think the PATS better pray for a real good pass rush next year because the CBs will not be their strength.

OL could definitely use some new blood in the draft. T or G.
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