PatsWorldChamps

a team that is EXPECTED to win 75% of its games; a very, rare team (12 and 4 teams are super rare)
would have to stay together and play for 236.5 years to go 19-0.
here is the math...
1/(.75^19)

if you think you will be alive the next time, so did sam adams and ben franklin.

a team that is EXPECTED to win 50% of its games...

would have to stay together and play for 524 thousand years to go 19-0... yeah fred flinstone and barney had season tix to that one... before the scalpers screwed up the ticket prices!

__________________
"If you didn't know better, you'd think the Jets sent Bill Belichick north
to destroy the Patriots from within. (When) they could have had
impact players David Terrell or Koren Robinson or the second-best tackle in
the draft in Kenyatta Walker, they took Georgia defensive tackle Richard
Seymour, (who is) too tall to play tackle at 6-6 and too slow to play defensive end." - Xerox Borges, April 2001

PonyExpress

In NFL history, roughly 2000 teams have had the opportunity to go undefeated and untied. Only 1 has done it, the 1972 Dolphins, pending the outcome of this SB.

pheenix11

I think your math is right. The odds of winning 19 games straight for any team is:

.5^19

(1/2 *1/2 *1/2 etc)

or

.000001907

or

1 in 524,288

Is that right?

__________________
16-0? Yup I called it:
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PatsWorldChamps

not at 19 and 0

__________________
"If you didn't know better, you'd think the Jets sent Bill Belichick north
to destroy the Patriots from within. (When) they could have had
impact players David Terrell or Koren Robinson or the second-best tackle in
the draft in Kenyatta Walker, they took Georgia defensive tackle Richard
Seymour, (who is) too tall to play tackle at 6-6 and too slow to play defensive end." - Xerox Borges, April 2001

PatsWorldChamps

yes, that is right... if you want, you can divide it by the number of teams in the league (then it will be ANY team doing it) and still get a number of years that will probably have some continents merged... you will never see this again!

__________________
"If you didn't know better, you'd think the Jets sent Bill Belichick north
to destroy the Patriots from within. (When) they could have had
impact players David Terrell or Koren Robinson or the second-best tackle in
the draft in Kenyatta Walker, they took Georgia defensive tackle Richard
Seymour, (who is) too tall to play tackle at 6-6 and too slow to play defensive end." - Xerox Borges, April 2001

Wildo7

the .5 is assuming all things being equal, which they aren't. That would be the odds of a team (8-8) with a 50% chance of winning each game.

PatsWorldChamps

the 72 dolphins never sniffed the neighborhood of 19-0... they will admit that... it's a new development, and if any dolphins want to buy in, they can ring our doorbells!

__________________
"If you didn't know better, you'd think the Jets sent Bill Belichick north
to destroy the Patriots from within. (When) they could have had
impact players David Terrell or Koren Robinson or the second-best tackle in
the draft in Kenyatta Walker, they took Georgia defensive tackle Richard
Seymour, (who is) too tall to play tackle at 6-6 and too slow to play defensive end." - Xerox Borges, April 2001

PatsWorldChamps

what would you like? a perennial 12-4 team? (how many of those were there ever?)... anyways, i'll go with your idea... a .750 team (every year, for 236 years) would be expected to go 19-0 ONCE in 236 years!

__________________
"If you didn't know better, you'd think the Jets sent Bill Belichick north
to destroy the Patriots from within. (When) they could have had
impact players David Terrell or Koren Robinson or the second-best tackle in
the draft in Kenyatta Walker, they took Georgia defensive tackle Richard
Seymour, (who is) too tall to play tackle at 6-6 and too slow to play defensive end." - Xerox Borges, April 2001

Marko

Exactly, it's not like flipping a coin. Theoretically, that would be true if you were talking about beating the spread(which really doesn't hold either); there's no way the Pats only had a 50% chance of beating the fins and the Jets etc.

Wildo7

What? I like the OP's original analysis if you are focusing on only the projected record and then rolling the dice. I was just responding to a post that described the odds somewhat inaccurately.

Anyway, I think that most knowledgeable estimates had the Pats at around 14-2 this year, which would improve the odds somewhat. It's great and all to do this mathematically, but there's too many factors involved to look at this in a mathematical vacuum. It's special not because of luck but because of an accumulation of mostly controllable factors.