Oswlek

I was planning on waiting until just a few days before the SB to post this, but I have a funny feeling that we are all just going to be burnt out at that point. I will try to look a little deeper if I have time (although my track record is pretty lousy these playoffs so you may not want me to ) but this is what I have for now.

* I posted this in response over at footballoutsiders to the litany of Giants fans that seem to believe that the Giants were always a top team.

* People are tripping over themselves looking to break out all the historical comparisons for this SB matchup. As I have said before, the team that I think they most resemble is the 2003 Panthers, which is promising for NY because that team maintained their play through the SB.

The games that I have heard many compare this matchup to are the Buffalo/NY game in 1990 and NE's first SB. Both paired efficient, tough defensive teams against unstoppable offensive juggernauts that also had some playmakers on defense. Myself, I can totally see the comparison, with the exception of one major detail.

Bill Belichick is on the wrong sideline.

BB was prominantly involved in taking down both of those offensive giants. Coughlin is a fine coach and I'm sure that his staff is full of competent guys as well. But I have little doubt that if you took BB off of either prior underdog the favorite's chances of winning would have improved greatly. Then, go one step further and add Bill to the favorite.....

* By now we all know that NY's approach to the first NE game was a major catalyst in their playoff run. Obviously they derived significant benefit from that game.

However, I have a different take on that, now that the teams are facing off once again. I personally believe that the earlier matchup was actually NY's best played game in their last month; better than the GB game, better than the TB game and most certainly better than the Dallas game. Anecdotally, I have noticed that when one team plays at their highest level against an oppenent, it is a major advantage to that opponent if they face each other again.

Some examples of this are Pitt/NE on Halloween of 2004, Indy/Pitt the following year, NE/SD this year. I'm sure you could easily find examples disproving this, but it seems to have played out how I expected it when I notice it. I just think that NE has an edge in the fact that they saw NY's best up close while NY saw NE at about a C+ level.

* Piggybacking on the previous though and similar to last year's Indy playoff game, NE has the advantage of not being surprised by NY's improved play. Just like I thought last year that some teams were surprised by Indy's improved D and failed to make adjustments, I think that NY's playoff opponents - TB and Dallas, anyway - may have been caught offguard by NY's elevated play. NE will have the benefit of both better persepective and 4 games of film.

I'm still not sure what I think about this game, but I'll let you know when I figure it out. As always, I welcome your thoughts.

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"They have one objective," said Washington cornerback Shawn Springs. "They whoop people's [backsides]. If you understand that, it answers all your questions. They might not lose [this year]."

patsox23

good stuff. I go back and forth between feeling supremely confident and a little bit worried. I think this team CAN blow their doors off, if they just play well. So far, though, we haven't seen a complete game in the post-season. Glendale would be an ideal spot for that.

aluminum seats

Your point about the Pats beating the Giants "A" game is a good one--NY really did play an excellent game, and the Pats beat them, in NY, without 40% of their starting O-Line (or Kyle Brady), the Giants w/a special teams TD, etc. All of this bodes well, I think, in a rematch.

I honestly don't think the Pats have played at the top of their game--felt that they were really challenged, and needed to step up--since the second half of the Pittsburgh game.

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"So I'm going to throw myself against the wall...
'Cause I'd rather feel bad than not feel anything at all."

dante828

Great post as always. The Super Bowl that I think most aptly compares to this one is Super Bowl 20. The Pats make a run in the playoffs, winning three road playoff games that everyone thought they would lose, only to face a dominating juggernaut in the Super Bowl. Granted the Bears dominated on defense and the Pats on offense, but I think this Super Bowl is the closest comparison....I would like to hear any thoughts on what makes them different. I know the Grogan/Eason situation is not present here, but I would also like to know other differences, especially Pats fans who have a better memory of the season since I was 5 at the time.

makewayhomer

I don't have access to the FO premium database, but I might be able to get it. my guess is that the NE game was easily the best the Giants have played all year per DVOA.

that said, most traditional or even advanced stats are going to sell the Giants short b/c they are playing much, much, much better now than they did all year.

their last 4 games they played like an elite team, right up there with Jax, SD, etc.

the question is if they can keep it up for 1 more, or if they will revert to their form from the majority of the season. I don't think any sane person doubts that the Giants are a big dog, it's just a question of us facing a Jax quality team or, say, a Tampa Bay quality team

BelichickFan

Another stat I like is Red Zone. We struggled early in the year and against the NYG defensively but overall it's a good stat for us.

Regular season (ProFW only has cumulative for that), the stats are :

Offense : Patriots 69.4% TD in Red Zone, NYG 54.5% TD in Red Zone.
Defense : virtual tie between the two.

Playoffs :

Offense : Patriots 70% TD in Red Zone, NYG 63.6% TD in Red Zone.
Defense : Patiots 33% TD allowed in RZ, NYG 62.%% TD allowed in RZ.

The playoff numbers have a very small sample size, the regular season looks good for us as the only way I see the NYG winning is by winning the Red Zone battle and the turnover battle.

Oswlek

One difference is that the '85 NE team made a living running the ball and then collided with a team and a defense structure that stoned the run.

I don't really see as large a matchup edge in NE's favor. NY's CBs have improved and they have an excellent pass rush, so that helps them against NE's passing game. Their DL and LBs are good run stoppers. Offensively, the Giants like to run, but they can pass it as well and, frankly, NE's defense isn't going to have as dominant an advantage as Chicago against any team.

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"They have one objective," said Washington cornerback Shawn Springs. "They whoop people's [backsides]. If you understand that, it answers all your questions. They might not lose [this year]."

BelichickFan

Regarding sacks, something interesting is that in the last 6 games, Umenyiora, Tuck and Strahan have combined for 3 sacks. I know sacks don't always represent pressure but 3 sacks in 6 games for their big three is interesting. They (those three) had 32 sacks for the year which means they had 29 sacks in the previous 16 games.

dante828

Thanks, I appreciate your thoughts. I see your point, though the lead up seems similar, this matchup is closer then the last one, though if things start to break the Pats way, I can still see a blow-out happening very easily, especially if Manning reverts in any way. Then, there is no way that offense can keep up with us. Of course, I thought the same think about Delhomme, so you never know.

ClevTrev

I agree with this line of thought, Oswelk. I would add that NE rarely is surprised by any opponent's level of play, as they always expect their opponent to play their best when they meet. This excellent attitude removes many chances of surprise, as NE can match the level of play they've practiced for and anticipated from the other team.

As for the Giants, I think your point that the game against NE may have been their best is well reasoned. However, the circus atmosphere for the Super Bowl is really the wild card from the constant media pestering, the 24-hour parties, and the schedule shift when everything is drawn out much longer on Super Bowl Sunday. I believe I know how NE will react. I'm going to be very interested in how the Giants react.

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