patfanken

OK, its a beautiful Sunday morning and the earth is STILL spinning correctly on its axis, and I am in good health. I know I have ranted about this draft long and hard. I have made some pretty extreme comments in the heat of the moment. Well its time to come off the ledge and look at the situation in a more rational fashion. Here are some random thoughts.

1. I have narrowed down my complaints about this draft to basically 3 items. and NONE of them are about not getting an immediate impact pass rusher.

a. Not getting more out of the 33rd pick. Again, its not about choosing Dowling, its about MY contention that we could have him 4 or 5 picks (or more) later and gotten something for what I saw as a rare opportunity. Yes Buffalo picked a DB right after, but one that most felt was rated MUCH higher than Dowling. In the end I recognize this as not being such a big deal, but to me it seemed like a wasted opportunity.

b. Ryan Mallet - forget about the off field concerns. Lets assume he's will be a hard working good citizen. Forget about the concerns that he doesn't "fit the system". Lets assume he develops over the next 3 or 4 years and reaches his potential. (Yes I think BB et al are THAT good) I have stated many times, even in my rage, that THIS was the best thing that ever could have happened to Ryan Mallet. He is now IMHO in the best position of ALL the QBs picked in this draft to actually reach his potential. But my issue is...how does that help the Pats over the next 3-4 years?! Our QB depth MAY be better, but how does that help us ON THE FIELD. We didn't improve our play at QB because Mallet will be on the bench for the next 4 years AT LEAST.

I would have rather used the pick on a shot in the dark like Houston, Romeus, an OG, WR, DL or even ANOTHER DB....and FAILED with the pick, than take a QB....ANY QB in the 3rd round. JMHO

c. Ridley/Vareen - I like Vareen, but I STILL can't see the Ridley pick. IF you thought Vareen was good enough to he 2nd RB taken in the draft, why do you need make a huge reach to get a short yardage/GL RB with the next pick. Couldn't you have gotten the same skill in FA in a RB you can get for roughly the league minimum? Bottom line, couldn't the Ridley pick been better used to take a shot in the dark on an OLB prospect, OG, WR, etc (see above)

d BTW - I still wish that we had taken some of that VAST draft capital an used to get SOMEONE he DID think was worth taking in this draft early....assuming he felt this was a weak draft. Maybe he tried, or Maybe guys he wanted got scooped when he didn't expect it. But its done, over, and we all should get over it (eventually ) because we will NEVER know.

That's it. when it comes right down to its JMHO. I do so with the understanding that I don't have 1% of information that the Team does, and I, for all my years in football, don't have 5% of the knowledge, I certainly SHOULDN'T question the decision makers, especially when you consider the DECADE of results they have given us. But I did and I do, because I am a fan, and its my right. . Its just now in hindsight, my issues with this draft are a lot less earth shattering that I thought after Mallet got picked, I shut off the TV and posted an "end of the world as we know it" diatribe.

BTW- I loved the Cannon pick, though I don't think he'll be a factor in 2011. I just wish we had made a similar pick on the defensive side

4. One of the interesting and ironic aspects of football is the how we view "sacks". Last year Brady threw the ball 492 times and was sacked 25 times or about 5% of the time. The average of the 5 BEST sackers in the league was 14. If you check you will find most starting QBs had at least 450 attempts (Brees had over 650). That would mean that the DOMINANT rushers in the league had a 3% success rate, and THEY are the guys EVERYONE wants to find and pay 10;s of millions to.

You wan more irony. PManning dropped back 455 times last season and was sacked 16, or about 3.5% and the Colts felt the need to draft 2 OLmen with their top picks in the draft. A 97% success rate for the OL and clearly that wasn't good enough. JUST a THREE percent success rate, and you are at the top of the heap in the NFL as a DOMINANT pass rusher. The guy WE all covet...and an offensive lineman with less than a 94% success rate is a turnstile.

patfanken

5. Lets take a look at the Pats pass rush both last year and into the next. I will opine that I expect it to be MUCH better, even before we enter the FA market to pick up "our guy" (more on that later)

a. Clearly adding Boddin and Dowling to last season's mix should make our coverage better. One of the problems we had last season was matching up with some of the bigger and stronger WRs that are becoming so prevalent in the league. Adding two BIG CBs to that mix is really going to help in that area.

b. I think people are really underestimating the return of Ty Warren to the mix. Rather than question his recovery from hip surgery. We are talking about him as if he had hip replacement surgery. Why don't we think about having a fully HEALTHY Ty Warren for the first time in 3 years. You remember Ty Warren. He was the guy who most fans thought was the best Pats DLman for a lot of years that Richard Seymour was going to Hawaii. Now suddenly he's thought of as an injury risk and a slow footed run stopper. No he's not a sack guy, but he is a great push the pocket from the inside guy. And that is something that leads to sacks for others. I am REALLY looking forward to watching a HEALTHY Ty Warren impact this young defense.

c. Mike Wright - Its interesting to hear some commentators talk about the Pats rush defense and to show how bad it is, point to the fact that with 5.5 sacks Mike Wright led the Pats in sacks. Mike Wright? But what I see is the fact Wright got those 5.5 sacks in JUST 7 games. Do you want to project that out for a full season? Do you want to consider that he got most of those 5.5 sacks playing as a 3-4 DE. I mean Wright was well on his way to double digit sack season playing a position that is definitely NOT conducive to being a sack leader in this league. Have we all been sleeping on Mike Wright as a significant pass rusher for us? I think we have.

d. Jermain Cunningham - Think about it. It took Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel 3-4 years to mature and develop into significant LBs in the 3-4 system. We saw Jermain Cunningham become an INSTANT starter in his first year, DESPITE missing most of training camp....and play pretty respectable football his rookie year. Very few pass rushers blossom their rookie years. Some of the best took several seasons to hit their strides,

I thought, given he was a rookie making one of the toughest position conversions there is to make, he did a fully remarkable job last season. I don't think we have seen NEARLY what he can be as an end product. I think he will be another part of the improvement we will see next season in the pass rush

e. The System - I find it amusing that in all this "we need to get a pass rush" outcry. (of which I admit I was part of ) We hear people lamenting that we have to find the next Mike Vrabel, or the NEXT Willie McGinest . I have to wonder if people don't realize that Willie McGinest NEVER had a double digit sack season under BB and only came close ONCE. Mike Vrabel only had ONE double digit sack season(07) and came close only one other year (nine in 03) during his EIGHT year stay in NE

The point I'm making is that it ISN'T about one guy or even two. Its about the TEAM. During the best years of our defense what was most interesting was that while the Pats were always among the leaders in team sacks, they NEVER had anyone at the top of the INDIVIDUAL stats. Maybe that's the point we are ALL missing. Its not about getting individuals to rush the passer its about assembling the TEAM who can create those pressures. Clearly we haven't been able to do it the past few seasons. And maybe we won't be amongst the team leaders next year. But I do feel strongly that it WILL be better, even with JUST the players we currently have.

6. The draft is over and now its time to FINALLY start to look down the road to FA. As I look at the situation, I really am starting to think that the Pats are going to make the kind of impact in FA that they DIDN'T in the draft. Given the kind of draft they DID have, I don't think FA will be impactfull in terms of the number of FA who we bring in but in WHO.

While I mentioned that putting pressure on the QB was a TEAM effort, you cannot do it without players talented enough to make it happen. I'm looking for 2. One OLB type, like Kiwanuka or Manny Lawson. One non-traditional (for us) inside defensive penetrator who, in the pass rushing sub defenses can compliment Mike Wright to replace his skills if he can't play. Someone like Tommy Harris, or a Tommy Harris type, if Harris is actually done.

Among those players who we do add, I expect to see at least one no name former college DE who has been making the transition to OLB be added. Another shot at finding the next Mike Vrabel. Letting another team do the work of training the player during his transition, while we get the benefits of that training. (sorta like what we are going to do with Ryan Mallet- sorry I couldn't help myself)

I'm pretty sure will will have the money to do it. It looks like we won't have to worry about Matt Light's contract (though personally I hope he stays and starts at G). We are going to lose Morris, Taylor, and Faulk's contracts as well. And while we are paying Brady and Mankins a boatload of money this season, the rest of the team is set with pretty reasonable contracts for the short term.

FA is going to be important to a lot of teams. I doubt that the Pats will make as big a splash as some other teams, but in the context of what we need to go over the top, it can be very valuable.

OK I'm done. I'm going out and take a long walk and enjoy this beautiful day, Meanwhile I will expect all of you to give me my 17 pages of commentary.

Patspsycho

Regarding 1a. we did try to trade out of 33 but it fell apart for some reason. During the time we were on the clock for #33, NFLN showed a shot of the NFL league officer who teams must report trades to, on the phone. Also we turned our pick in at the very last minute.

upstater1

On the first point, I would argue that Dowling is only a second rounder because of his injuries. You have to remember he was a top 10 projection to start the year, rated ahead of Amukamara. I guarantee you that half the teams had him rated well ahead of Aaron Williams. He is simply a better DB.

On the second point, it's not ONLY that the Patriots are stashing away a QB. A few more factors play into it. I totally believe Belichick that they are playing Russian Roulette by carrying only 2 QBs. A team needs another solid guy out there. 2 is not enough at that position. We saw 4th stringers out there this year for Green Bay and Seattle. Second factor, this kid--along with Sam Bradford--has the best skill sets of any QB to come out in the last 5 years. 3rd round--HUGE VALUE. And he provides the 3rd QB you need. Finally, Hoyer's contract ends next year. He will not be a RFA. The Patriots will not be able to resign him if another team thinks he's ready to start. Now, some teams do pay their backup QBs plenty of money to get them to stay. We've seen this happen quite often, and the Patriots could certainly throw $3 or 4 million his way, but the chances are that some team is going to throw $4 million his way and tell him he has a great chance to start.

aluminum seats

Just want to say that this thread doesn't excuse the ridiculousness of the last one.

Yes, we're fans, but at this point, this board has become borderline unreadable because of the flood of reactionary, knee-jerk, idle-thoughts like stuff. It's this fog of screaming and whining, which to me is at best unpleasant to wade through and at worst just not worth it at all.

So how about more deep breaths before posting, and try to make your posts actually mean something.

__________________
"So I'm going to throw myself against the wall...
'Cause I'd rather feel bad than not feel anything at all."

NEGoldenAge

That's a lot of words for so little said.

shmessy

Ken, that was before Wright's brain got scrambled in a frying pan.

Will he be medically cleared to return to football?

He was out THREE MONTHS with a concussion when the Pats truly needed him. There had to be a serious medical reason for that.

__________________
"They (Patriots) may be the greatest team ever" - Chris Mortenson, January 18, 2005 on espn.com

DaBruinz

PFK -
Regarding Dowling. There is no guarantee he'd have been there had the Pats completed a trade down. I say this because, immediately after the Pats picked Dowling, Aaron Williams came off the board. Buffalo could have taken Dowling instead.

That being said, we'll never know why they couldn't get a trade done. Could have been that teams looking for a QB didn't want to trade up or they weren't willing to offer the Pats what the Pats felt was a fair offer.

DaBruinz

Unfortunately, I believe that Wright's playing days are over. It was only 2 months ago that he was still having some issues and wasn't able to do certain things.

convertedpatsfan

I wish I knew the story behind what actually happened. But at the end of the day, the deal didn't get done.

And it seems unfair for the OP to criticize not moving out of #33. It takes two to tango, and if the deal wasn't there with enough value, then making the pick makes sense. Surely the top 5 teams would have loved to move down in the 1st but it was hard to get a team to bite.

The 49ers did move up early in the 2nd to 36, and gave up a 4th and 5th to move 9 slots. If that was offered to us, would that be enough to move off of #33 and risk losing a guy you liked to drop 12 slots? Not to me, especially when we shipped off some mid-round picks later on.