The case that we will not take an OLB early in the draft - New England Patriots Forums

Ice_Ice_Brady · 03-02-2011, 10:30 PM

Every organization has a philosophy about the draft. It appears the Patriots do not draft speed-rushing outside linebackers with high picks. It is possible that circumstances have just not fallen into place and that they haven't been very excited about recent prospects. However, the 2009 draft boasted several huge prospects at the position, including Clay Matthews, who many draft pundits had the Patriots picking. They traded down.

Also, I believed a few years ago that the Pats would not spend a high pick on a cornerback and was proven wrong last year. So, this is definitely speculation.

Now for the case.

The Patriots have frequently passed on edge rushers in the early rounds of the draft, despite projected fits from experts. The reason is likely because this position has a very high bust rate, with very little film on players in a 3-4 OLB role. Many have said this is the most difficult position to transition from college to the pros. Despite all the rave before each draft, the last few years have not really produced a lot of talent. For every DeMarcus Ware and Clay Matthews, there are plenty of busts.

You can check out the draft history here.

National Football League: NFL Draft History - by Position

The Patriots current roster is highlighted by Jermaine Cunningham, a third-round pick, and Tully Banta-Cain, who was drafted in the seventh round.

Around the NFL, some of the best at the position did not exactly come heralded. And remember, every year there are five guys who excite scouts, yet there are certainly not many guys who have come into the NFL and established themselves as elite 3-4 pass rushers.

James Harrison- Came into the NFL undrafted in 2002. Was shipped to Europe to play for the Ravens team there. Didn't make an impact until 2007, five years later.

Cameron Wake- Also undrafted in 2005. Like Harrison, he did not make the roster and played in the CFL. It also took him five years to finally break through.

Jason Taylor- Third round pick. And also, Taylor could be a classic case of not being able to transition to a 3-4, although age could have been a factor as well.

Joey Porter- As much as I hate the guy, he was an elite pass rusher. Another third round pick taken 73rd overall (same as Taylor.)

Shaun Philips- Third round pick.

Anyway, if you look at the hyped players drafted near the top, you find a lot of players that make you say "who is that guy?" With the exception of Suggs, Matthews, and Ware, there are very few impact players taken near the top at this position, and a lot of huge, monumental busts like Gholston.

Yes, you can make the argument that this is true with all positions, but it is much more statistically true at this one.

As for the Patriots, they have rarely drafted players at this position. Since Belichick took over, here is the breakdown:

Skill positions (QB, WR, TE, RB)-32
Offensive line- 18
Defensive line- 16
Secondary- 14
Linebackers- 12*

*Cunningham is the only OLB drafted in the first two rounds, near the end of round two.

This is pretty amazing when you consider how important the linebacker position is in a 3-4 defense, and it shows that the Patriots do not really trust the hype at this position. Here is where some of the impact players landed:

Rosevelt Colvin- Fourth round pick
Mike Vrabel- Third-round pick, dumped by Pittsburgh
Adalius Thomas- Sixth round pick
Willie McGinest- Fourth overall pick, so he breaks the trend, although Willie played defensive end quite a bit as well.

It's not that this position is not valuable. I think the contracts given to Colvin and Thomas, two high-priced free agents, show that it is. But we know that Belichick hates taking crapshoot risks, and all moves are calculated with high-reward. That said, history has shown that successful linebacking pass rushers are typically developed over a long period of time in the league, with high bust rates at the top, and plenty of surprises near the mid to late rounds (or undrafted.)

This is probably not what many people want to hear, but don't be surprised AT ALL if the Patriots do not take a DE/OLB in the first round (or 33.) I expect they might take two 3-4 DE/DTs.

***Sciz*** · 03-02-2011, 10:33 PM

If the Pats don't get Aldon, they're not taking one in the first 3 rounds. Calling it now

***AndyJohnson*** · 03-02-2011, 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ice_Ice_Brady

Every organization has a philosophy about the draft. It appears the Patriots do not draft speed-rushing outside linebackers with high picks. It is possible that circumstances have just not fallen into place and that they haven't been very excited about recent prospects. However, the 2009 draft boasted several huge prospects at the position, including Clay Matthews, who many draft pundits had the Patriots picking. They traded down.

Also, I believed a few years ago that the Pats would not spend a high pick on a cornerback and was proven wrong last year. So, this is definitely speculation.

Now for the case.

The Patriots have frequently passed on edge rushers in the early rounds of the draft, despite projected fits from experts. The reason is likely because this position has a very high bust rate, with very little film on players in a 3-4 OLB role. Many have said this is the most difficult position to transition from college to the pros. Despite all the rave before each draft, the last few years have not really produced a lot of talent. For every DeMarcus Ware and Clay Matthews, there are plenty of busts.

You can check out the draft history here.

National Football League: NFL Draft History - by Position

The Patriots current roster is highlighted by Jermaine Cunningham, a third-round pick, and Tully Banta-Cain, who was drafted in the seventh round.

Around the NFL, some of the best at the position did not exactly come heralded. And remember, every year there are five guys who excite scouts, yet there are certainly not many guys who have come into the NFL and established themselves as elite 3-4 pass rushers.

James Harrison- Came into the NFL undrafted in 2002. Was shipped to Europe to play for the Ravens team there. Didn't make an impact until 2007, five years later.

Cameron Wake- Also undrafted in 2005. Like Harrison, he did not make the roster and played in the CFL. It also took him five years to finally break through.

Jason Taylor- Third round pick. And also, Taylor could be a classic case of not being able to transition to a 3-4, although age could have been a factor as well.

Joey Porter- As much as I hate the guy, he was an elite pass rusher. Another third round pick taken 73rd overall (same as Taylor.)

Shaun Philips- Third round pick.

Anyway, if you look at the hyped players drafted near the top, you find a lot of players that make you say "who is that guy?" With the exception of Suggs, Matthews, and Ware, there are very few impact players taken near the top at this position, and a lot of huge, monumental busts like Gholston.

Yes, you can make the argument that this is true with all positions, but it is much more statistically true at this one.

As for the Patriots, they have rarely drafted players at this position. Since Belichick took over, here is the breakdown:

Skill positions (QB, WR, RB)-22
Defensive line- 16
Secondary- 13
Tight end- 10
Offensive line- 9
Linebackers- 5 (3 OLB)*

*I always thought McKenzie was supposed to be an ILB, although he is listed as an OLB. The other picks were Crable and Cunningham.

This is pretty amazing when you consider how important the linebacker position is in a 3-4 defense, and it shows that the Patriots do not really trust the hype at this position. Here is where some of the impact players landed:

Rosevelt Colvin- Fourth round pick
Mike Vrabel- Third-round pick, dumped by Pittsburgh
Adalius Thomas- Sixth round pick
Willie McGinest- Fourth overall pick, so he breaks the trend, although Willie played defensive end quite a bit as well.

It's not that this position is not valuable. I think the contracts given to Colvin and Thomas, two high-priced free agents, show that it is. But we know that Belichick hates taking crapshoot risks, and all moves are calculated with high-reward. That said, history has shown that successful linebacking pass rushers are typically developed over a long period of time in the league, with high bust rates at the top, and plenty of surprises near the mid to late rounds (or undrafted.)

This is probably not what many people want to hear, but don't be surprised AT ALL if the Patriots do not take a DE/OLB in the first round (or 33.) I expect they might take two 3-4 DE/DTs.

Thats a lot of analysis.
But I think you are missing the most important factor.

BB drafts a player. He doesn't draft a stereotype (speed rusher, run stopper) he drafts the best football player he can get.
I think this makes it questionable to make statements such as BB doesnt like to draft OLBs early, and the fact he passed on Clay Matthews may be evidence.
I think its much more simple than that. He drafts the best football player he can get.
I think the trends that people like to think are there for the most part are not trends they are circumstantial evidence. "BB would never draft a G in the first round" "ILB isnt a round 1 position for BB" "BB never picks corners in the first round" are all statements that were considered fact around here at one time.

The reason BB is unpredictable is that everyone wants to put a label on each player then use BBs reaction to that label as an indication of how he feels about everyone you would put that label on.

BB would take an All-Pro OLB in round 1 if he saw one there.
When Clay Matthews was on the board, that wasn't what he saw, and frankly unless you are hypnothized by sack statistics (which even probowl voters are ironically) thats not what you should see either. The flash isnt what BB is drafting even if fans and commentators look no further.
Personally, I do not think BB would choose Mathews if he could redraft that year, but thats just my opinion of his overall play, not just the flash.

I think the best case you can make for us not taking an OLB in round 1 is that it seems that it is very rare for BB to see one that he feels is 1st round caliber. That is a viable possiblity because there are few positions that harder to assess a college player transitioning to than 3-4 2 gap OLB.
There basically are none of those in college football, so the risk is higher.
If I have all of the potentially excellent players available at pick number 28 and some of those have shown the skills in college doing almost exactly what they need to do in the NFL is a much safer pick than projecting a guy to be able to succeed doing things and playing techniques he never did in college.

The draft record on OLBs, IMO, is much more about that uncertainty of transition than an indication that BB places little value on OLB.

supafly · 03-02-2011, 10:49 PM

OP--nice analysis, and legwork. You certainly make a decent case for how BB may view the position, with the high percentage of non-impact players etc.

That said, the prospects of selecting a player at this position still is decent in the mid-rounds, and anyone can step up and pleasantly surprise us.

I agree that with a deeper DE draft, that may be where a likely choice or 2 lies--at least with the top 3 rounds.

It's a guessing game, and that's why I never attempt to make a mock draft etc, b/c we do not have 1/10th of the information/scheme planning and knowledge of the specifics that BB has.

FWIW--I certainly believed that McKenzie was always projected to be an ILB here too.

supafly · 03-02-2011, 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AndyJohnson

I think the best case you can make for us not taking an OLB in round 1 is that it seems that it is very rare for BB to see one that he feels is 1st round caliber. That is a viable possiblity because there are few positions that harder to assess a college player transitioning to than 3-4 2 gap OLB.
There basically are none of those in college football, so the risk is higher.
If I have all of the potentially excellent players available at pick number 28 and some of those have shown the skills in college doing almost exactly what they need to do in the NFL is a much safer pick than projecting a guy to be able to succeed doing things and playing techniques he never did in college.

The draft record on OLBs, IMO, is much more about that uncertainty of transition than an indication that BB places little value on OLB.

That's an excellent point right there, and is a good fact that sometimes many (including myself) has tended to overlook. At the end of the day I always trust the experts, and I certainly consider Belichick an expert. I really could care less who he takes, the thing I love is that he puts the team in a great position to succeed in the draft, and his percentage of hits is much better than misses.

zimmy · 03-03-2011, 03:03 AM

It is revisionist history to claim, as you do, that Clay Matthews was a huge can't miss prospect. I actually recall people saying Green Bay had over drafted him. He was a one year starter in college with very little production, who at 6ft 3, 245lbs was also too small to play OLB in our system. He was about the same size as Gary Guyton, who has no chance of playing OLB.

I would like to know who these can't miss OLBs that BB has passed on in the first round the last few years are? Those type of guys go high in the draft and we don't get the opportunity to select them

From the first round, Bill wants good football players who are able to play all three downs. He is obviously wary about taking a projection player early in the draft. Maybe this is the year things change.

patsfan-1982 · 03-03-2011, 03:40 AM

IMO this draft class is not that deep at OLB at less not that many with first round grades... Von Miller, and Robert Quinn, will both be gone in the top 12 picks Aldon Smith, could be gone by pick 17 and im not sure the pats will take him after that i dont think there are any OLB's that will go in the first round, Justin Houston and Ryan Kerrigan, i think they have shown that they are both more of 4-3 DE's and not OLB's

kurtinelson · 03-03-2011, 05:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patsfan-1982

IMO this draft class is not that deep at OLB at less not that many with first round grades...

I'd say that this is one of the deepest 3-4 OLB draft classes in history.

All of these players project to be drafted in round 1:

R. Quinn
A. Smith
V. Miller
A. Ayers
J. Houston

serifyn · 03-03-2011, 06:14 AM

the great part about this draft is that there is alot of depth in the earlier rounds at practically every position the patriots need help at.

DL, OLB, OT, WR, RB and if the patriots see a player they really like, they have all of the currency to go and get them, the patriots with 7 draft picks in the first 4 rounds have done a great job over the years of rebuilding their team and restocking talent, now they have the opportunity to to fix whatever holes are left on a 14-2 team.

***Box_O_Rocks*** · 03-03-2011, 06:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kurtinelson

I'd say that this is one of the deepest 3-4 OLB draft classes in history.

All of these players project to be drafted in round 1:

R. Quinn
A. Smith
V. Miller
A. Ayers
J. Houston

To each his own, for example, from your list only Miller is someone I consider a 3-4 OLB. I believe Smith to have the athleticism, as does Ayers, but I have other concerns for them which preclude me considering either in the first round. Quinn and Houston both showed themselves to be good straight-line athletes at the Combine, but neither demonstrated the movement skills I require in an OLB. Players whom I consider first round prospects and OLB prospects besides Miller: Bowers, Kerrigan ... beauty is in the eye of the beholder as it were.