patfanken

....on the field this evening.

I think by now most of us who were worried about matching to the Jags running attack, have come to the terms that in reality, that once again, the media is wrong. That media has told us all week that the Jags match up well against the Pats, when in reality the Pats are a BAD match up for the Jags. That being said here is what I'd like to see on the field tonight.

1. At least 4 pass plays that get the ball to Moroney in space. With all the concentration that the Jags are going to have to put on Moss, Welker, Stallworth, et al, PLUS the Pats tendency to run the ball with Moroney in the backfield and Brady under C, I think the swing passes to LoMo will not only be open, but very effective.

2. I want to lose the coin toss and get the ball in the second half. I know this goes against the common wisdom that says getting off to the fast start is critical. I don't believe its THAT critical.

I want Jacksonville to have that ball first, because that is when the crowd will be at its loudest and most disruptive. That is when it is more likely that Jacksonville won't be in an offensive rhythm. THAT is when Garrad will be the most nervous. That is BEFORE they can adjust to any of the defensive adjustments the Pats have made.

Getting the ball to start the 2nd half means the Pats can trot out half time adjustments. It is the chance to establish yourself in the most important half of the game. It eliminates the chance of the Jags offense getting the ball for 2 long drives to end and start the half. That's the situation that exhausted the Pats defense in the 2006 AFCCG

I know its not a big deal either way, its just that IMHO, there are more reasons where getting the ball to start the 2nd half is advantageous than not.

3. I want to see Moroney get 20+ carries in this game. Contrary to the common wisdom, I think we can be effective running the ball, especially around the end and power plays off tackle. I think the stretch play will work well also. Even if we don't have great success with the run, it will set up the PAP. I don't necessarily want a 50-50 ratio, but something more than 25-75 we've seen lately.

4. I'd like to see the ball thrown more to Gaffney and Stallworth more in the first half. That should loosen the tight coverage we should expect to see on Moss and Welker....and it wouldn't hurt to see a few more balls throw to Ben Watson either.

5. I doubt we can completely stuff the Jags running game for the entire game. IMO anything less than 130 yds on the ground will be good enough to cement a win. However I'd like to think that the Pats defensive scheme will be such that it will shut the run down for at least the first 2 Jags possessions. It will take at least that long for the Jags to breakdown what we are doing to stop the run, and then devise a solution for it, and then get that info down to the team.

6. I'm looking for an A game from our coverage teams. That means NEVER allowing the KO team to get the ball out beyond the 35 and having the majority of the returns inside the 25. On, punts its never allowing more than a 10 yd punt return and NEVER missing a realistic opportunity to down the ball inside the 5

7. On defense as a whole, I expect them to only allow 2 TDs, any other trips to the red zone have to result in FGs or less.

8. No plays given up greater than 35 yds.

9. I can live with 1 turnover, 2 if we get at least 2 of their's

I know that's not asking much. Personally I think we will roll this game comfortably, and my ony fear are injuries.

PatsMan26

A Pats win.

Patriotic

Insightful as always, Ken.

The one thing I want to hear is Phil Simms say ....

" Now the Patriots can wait and see whether its the Colts or Chargers coming to Foxboro next week."

blackglass3

What do you do for a living, PFK? Unless you say "Sports Writer", I think you're in the wrong profession.

Good stuff, man.

patfanken

Thanks, maybe Chris could hire me or give me assignments????? hint hint.

BelichickFan

I agree with everything you said other than the coin flip - but while I do agree with your logic on that I want the ball first. We have such a good record of scoring first this year and a lead means so much. I agree with your point about the crowd and acknowledge that we rarely allow a first posession score so even if we lose the toss we probably get our first posession in a 0-0 game. However in the end, the chance of going down 7-0 to start and giving them momentum and confidence makes me want to win the toss, get the ball, score and get that cushion.

BelichickFan

The only thing I hope to see is good pass protection for us. If we get it everything else should take care of itself. If Brady is well protected, I just don't see any way we score less than 30 points; and I don't see the Jags scoring more than 27. So in a ridiculously simplistic way, IMO if we protect Brady we should win by that alone because barring a complete dump of a game, good pass protection should almost guarantee we'll put up a score than the Jags won't match.

shmessy

Right on Ken, I always agree with that viewpoint on the 1st possession. I always want the Pats on D for the first for the very reasons you outlined.

Tonight, I think it would be even more important than usual. It is VERY important for the Pats to get ahead early (shutdown that 1st J'ville drive and then score often). This could get J'ville away from the run if we build up a good lead.

BB always hones in on targeting the opposing team's strengths. I'd like to see a quick early lead, with the ball 1st after halftime to put this puppy to sleep. Let J'ville have to rely on Garrard's arm and his mediocre WR corps.

Main reason? To leave as much hidden for the Indy Colts next week.

__________________
"They (Patriots) may be the greatest team ever" - Chris Mortenson, January 18, 2005 on espn.com

shmessy

The other thing i want to see?

A healthy K. Brady, Kazcur and Neal. Shore up that right side, baby!

__________________
"They (Patriots) may be the greatest team ever" - Chris Mortenson, January 18, 2005 on espn.com

patsfan13

I want a dominating effort from the D for 60 minutes. They have stood up when required. I want the A game from the D tonight.

__________________
"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."