Dr Z analysis - New England Patriots Forums

SVN · 12-04-2007, 10:26 AM

makes some interesting points regarding our defense and mankins

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...ats/index.html

Quote:

The defense got walloped. Adalius Thomas, playing against his old mates, made a few plays in the first period. After that he could have been in the witness protection program. In the third quarter, when the Ravens keyed their offense to the thundering hoofbeats of McGahee, the only notice you took of Adalius, was the way he was getting driven backward. The Ravens keyed their thrust to the right side of the Patriots' defensive line, which came out in a base 4-3 precisely because their coaches feared what actually happened.

And the guy who took the major heat was all-pro Richard Seymour. Oh my, what a job Baltimore' bowling ball of a left guard, Jason Brown, did on him. And Jonathan Ogden on whoever manned the DRE spot was a heavy overmatch. And Tedy Bruschi in the middle looked like a little guy who was getting overrun. These chaps aren't getting any younger.

It will be interesting to see what Pittsburgh does to the Patriots linemen on both sides of the ball. Particularly distressing was the sight of my all-pro left guard, Logan Mankins, getting eaten up by 340-pound Haloti Ngata. Hey, the Steelers have some big guys, too.

Well, Maybe Steve Young was right and this was just a downbeat period for the unbeaten Patriots, and once they've righted themselves they'll go back to covering their 14-, 16-, 20-point spreads. But maybe the Ravens opened up a window to something more sinister, something that could be exploited by a big, muscular, physical team, coached by people who aren't terrified by the prospect of scoring a major upset.

ClevTrev · 12-04-2007, 10:33 AM

I agree with him. It's a well-written piece.

ironwasp · 12-04-2007, 10:42 AM

I agree with him too.

There is no question that the team looks significantly more vulnerable now than it did during the bye week. The defence was shockingly poor through three quarters last night, and only the fact that they stepped up hugely in Q4 is keeping me from blind panic. What was really shocking last nigth was how the defensive line was manhandled in the running game. It was ugly. And when they play like that it's difficult to cover up the lack of speed in the LB corps.

I don't have many concerns about the offense - which still piled up 27 points on one of the best D's in the league that was playing with huge passion - except for the fact that cold windy stadia are likely to be a pretty big feature of the next four weeks and the play-offs and we're taking a diametrically-opposite approach this year than when we were riding Corey Dillon a few years back. The loss of Sammy Morris as the uphill runner is looking increasingly significant.

The Steelers are a big threat next week, but I still see 15-1 minimum in our future, and without Freeney I'm not massively bothered by the Colts D.

***MoLewisrocks*** · 12-04-2007, 10:51 AM

They were really only over run in the third quarter. But let's not let the facts muddy the mood.

Can someone tell me who the Steelers have only suffered 4 losses to? It will help me grasp why they are so likely to hang a loss on us on the road... Unless you think that loss will come at the hands of the JETS or Doofins, or that team led by the genetically mutant Manning.

Urgent · 12-04-2007, 10:55 AM

Great teams are not always beaten by great teams.

If you look at the last half dozen teams to start 10-0, the teams that beat them averaged about .500.

Just because the Steelers lost to the Jets doesn't mean that they cannot beat the Patriots, any more than it means that the Jets are better than the Steelers.

VJCPatriot · 12-04-2007, 11:01 AM

Z doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know. The Pats rushing D was terrible last night. Particularly in the 3rd quarter. What is relevant though is the fact they righted the ship in the 4th quarter when it mattered (albeit by stacking 8 to stop the run).

The Pats will need to look hard in the mirror again, then come up with a gameplan against Pitt. Pitt is a team that loves to run the football, and I think Roethlisberger is a better QB than Boller, so it will be a tough matchup.

***cstjohn17*** · 12-04-2007, 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MoLewisrocks

They were really only over run in the third quarter. But let's not let the facts muddy the mood.

Can someone tell me who the Steelers have only suffered 4 losses to? It will help me grasp why they are so likely to hang a loss on us on the road... Unless you think that loss will come at the hands of the JETS or Doofins, or that team led by the genetically mutant Manning.

I think most of us expect them to win out but lets not pretend that they can't be beaten. The top teams in the AFC and even the Cowboys have the potential to beat this team.

To shore up the run they had to bring Harrison into the box on almost every play, sooner or later the front seven has to stop the run, we aren't going to see Kyle Boller in the playoffs. What was alarming to me was the ease of the Ravens running attack, run left off tackle, run left off tackle, run left off tackle. The OLB, DE and ILB were completely dominated, it can be fixed but it is late in the year to try to implement fundamentals. Lucky for them they get to play a power running team this week and can look for a little redemption.

Synopsis

Jacksonville - Almost same team as the Ravens but bigger and better. They will try the exact same approach, I don't think it is enough to beat the Patriots but with some breaks (turnovers) it could happen.
Chargers - Excellent power running team, they ran out of the same formation in last years playoff game with very good success.
Colts - More of spread offense, but simply having Manning gives them a shot. Just like having Brady gives the Patriots a shot. At home against a banged up Colts D, I expect the Pats to win.
Dallas - Very balanced team, excellent against the run. Very good offense, big offensive and defensive lines, I expect them to hang with the Pats, late INT by the 'gunslinger' Romo seals it for the Pats, then we can finally exhale.

ClevTrev · 12-04-2007, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cstjohn17

I think most of us expect them to win out but lets not pretend that they can't be beaten. The top teams in the AFC and even the Cowboys have the potential to beat this team.

Synopsis

Jacksonville - Almost same team as the Ravens but bigger and better. They will try the exact same approach, I don't think it is enough to beat the Patriots but with some breaks (turnovers) it could happen.
Chargers - Excellent power running team, they ran out of the same formation in last years playoff game with very good success.
Colts - More of spread offense, but simply having Manning gives them a shot. Just like having Brady gives the Patriots a shot. At home against a banged up Colts D, I expect the Pats to win.
Dallas - Very balanced team, excellent against the run. Very good offense, big offensive and defensive lines, I expect them to hang with the Pats, late INT by the 'gunslinger' Romo seals it for the Pats, then we can finally exhale.

I don't expect them to win out, and I hope I'm wrong. The point that any team regardless of their record can beat the Pats is a good one.

Note that Dallas very likely could now be the toughest team in the NFL. I believe they've reached parity with the top AFC teams.