Captain Cliche

For those of you that missed it:

High School OT.com - High school team refuses to punt

Don't think that anything he does is random. All this crap about not trusting the defense.
He has enough "house chips" to call these kind of plays and he doesn't give a rats ***** what the media fall out may be if it fails.

"For most coaches, the decision on whether to go for it on fourth down has more to do with feel for the game - and job security - than stats."

I am willing to bet he calls more defensive time outs than any other active coach, too.

Jared

Greg Easterbrook of TMQ has been beating this drum for a while. The stats say that in general if you never punt, and just go for it on every fourth down, you are more likely to win.

I'm ok with BB going for it every fourth.

Fencer

I doubt it's that high in the pros. I doubt red zone TD % is quite that high, and the actual number should be lower than the red zone one.

The point on strategy is excellent, although I'm a bit cynical just because we're focusing this week on the fact that 3rd-and-long is not necessarily a catastrophe when you're facing a soft defense ...

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"To lose one parent may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness." -- Oscar Wilde

Calciumee

Because he has MASSIVE BALLS!!!

Also, anyone think that he wants to continue the drive, and does have trust in the D on a shorter field, if the O don't get it?

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pencilneckgeek

Here's the quintessential statistical study on NFL 4th down strategy

Brian did individual analyses of 4th and 2 and last week's 4th and 1 and came to the conclusion that 4th and 2 was decidedly the way to go, whereas last week's 4th and 1 was more of a wash.

There's much more to be said about in-game factors affecting a decision to go for it or not, but the analysis is compelling just the same.

Steamer86

I agree. It's the super-sized stones, almost Stonehengeian.

Calciumee

Bigger than Stonehenge! If they were slightly smaller than SH, you'd be left disappointed!

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voluntarysaftey

I heard a talk from Jeff Ma (of 21 / MIT blackjack team fame), and his talk is about making decisions based on data; and not judging results based on a single success point.

In his talk, he mentions last year's 4th & 2 against Indy, and how it was the right decision. He mentions he talked with Bill Simmons), who argued it was absolutely the wrong decision. When he asked Bill why it was wrong, Bill said because it failed (judging decision by result).

He says BB knows the approximate probability of winning if you go for it vs winning if you punt, and choose the best action.

He also mentioned the Saint's suprise onside kick in the Superbowl, and said that the probability of suprise onside kicks vs expected onside kicks is much different, and the Saint's were right to try the onside. Although if you are always doing a suprise kick once a game, or after every half, it becomes less of a suprise and the probabilities would change over time.

Now the key point -- how is it that BB know the stats, but every other coach doesn't? He says most coaches are well aware of the statistics -- its just that their motivations don't align with correctly using the probabilities. Coache's are motivated by keeping their job -- that generally means winning. But when there's a choice between 2 decisions -- one if that goes wrong you will be blamed (4th & 2), and one that if it goes wrong you won't (punting and letting the other team march down the field), most coaches will go for the decision that helps them keep their job.

Triumph

4th and 15?

SuperPatsFan

Even though conventional wisdom is to be ultra-conservative and punt or kick the FG on 4th down, the NFL is so competitive that teams will look for any edge to win. If the right decision, in terms of maximizing points scored and winning probability, is to go for it on 4th down in many situations, I expect to see an increase in teams going for it.

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